UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Oryxslayer]

Note that this is a two-Party swing up there for the record books, higher than Selby & Ainsty but still just below Dudly West from 1994. However, it also exposes some of the deficient in that calculation, since its clear a bunch of the Tory vote scattered rather than go to Labour. That's of course cause of the specific awfulness of the Tories in these peculiar circumstances, running a awful candidate and not really putting up a fight.

[YL]

This appears to be the biggest fall in the Conservative vote share in a by-election on record, at least since 1945, breaking the Christchurch 1993 record.

[Lumine]

Oh lord.

Can't say they don't deserve it (and far worse), but still remarkable.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1758355823917416647

[Blair]

The funny thing is if it was just Kingswood tonight it would probably be written up as ‘solid, but average win’ for Labour- I guess labour were starting from a relatively high base, greens clearly did well (am I right the area is a bit new world- like some parts of the south west?) and reform did well.

Also I guess it helps the ex member resigned for political reasons rather than a scandal

[Cassius]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

[afleitch]

With noting that Reform finally got vote shares in line with national polling. Which hadn't been the case until now.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

I wish Labour had gotten 0.5% more in Kingswood, or the Tories 0.5% less, or Reform 0.5% less etc. It would have spared us the stupid "Vote Reform, get Labour" comments.

[Torrain]

Labour beating the Tories by 10%, while Reform gets 10.4%, is going to drive certain strategists up the wall.

Presumably we'll end up with another media cycle of Conservative backbenchers demanding the party ignore Tory-Lab switchers and focus on running to the right to recapture that 10%.

*sigh*, it begins.
https://twitter.com/Jane_Stevenson_/status/1758311037961707854

[Pericles]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

Especially insane stat from a Parliament that also includes Hartlepool and the Batley near-disaster.

[morgieb]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

Especially insane stat from a Parliament that also includes Hartlepool and the Batley near-disaster.

To think Starmer was inches away from having to resign.

Now he might win by more than 1997.

[YL]

Labour beating the Tories by 10%, while Reform gets 10.4%, is going to drive certain strategists up the wall.

Presumably we'll end up with another media cycle of Conservative backbenchers demanding the party ignore Tory-Lab switchers and focus on running to the right to recapture that 10%.

*sigh*, it begins.
https://twitter.com/Jane_Stevenson_/status/1758311037961707854

By, what, 77 votes? Good luck with that sort of transfer rate even if there isn’t the sort of polling on the smaller party’s voters’ preferences there is here.

And two can play at that game: there were 1450 Green votes.

[afleitch]

The Tories taking the wrong message from by-elections partly fuels further polling and by-election losses. So I hope they do.

[JimJamUK]

Surprised at the Reform vote in Kingswood, as that’s what national polling suggests they should actually be getting. On the other hand, Wellingborough is still an underperformance, especially given the collapse in the Tory vote and Reform supposedly targeting the constituency.

[afleitch]

The question is; when do they go to the country?

We've had two by-elections on the same day; one a Dudley West style rout, the other a more 'modest' Wirral South result. None of which suggest the government is going to benefit from a substantial 'swing back'. Inflation is still high, we're in a formal recession. The former might see an improvement, but interest rate drops are unlikely or likely to be mild.

The economy can't save the government. The culture wars aren't paying out (rest in power Brianna) and 'stop the boats' has a 'save the pound' obsessional slant that really doesn't cut through most people who don't prioritise it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The funny thing is if it was just Kingswood tonight it would probably be written up as ‘solid, but average win’ for Labour- I guess labour were starting from a relatively high base, greens clearly did well (am I right the area is a bit new world- like some parts of the south west?) and reform did well.

Also I guess it helps the ex member resigned for political reasons rather than a scandal

Kingswood isn't a new age area - Kingswood itself is working-class suburbia, the southern part of the seat lower middle-class suburbia. But it does neighbour Bristol, which is a Green stronghold, so they've got access to a reasonable campaigning infrastructure and some of those who can't afford to buy in Bristol will have ended up there instead.

[Blair]

I did wonder how long it would take for the Tories to back AV or PR.

The Tories taking the wrong message from by-elections partly fuels further polling and by-election losses. So I hope they do.

It annoyed me as it means we have to listen to a week of ‘well reform voters are scabs’ and ‘well stop the boats and we will win’ from various outriders and MPs but equally it will just push them further down the rabbit hole.

I’m also actually not sure what more they could do from a policy stance to stop people voting reform- they’ve had a year of chasing these voters! Three pieces of legislation to deal with channel crossings, a tax cut, about 100 culture war stories etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who would have thought that 'selecting the partner of the disgraced ex-MP forced out of his seat after being found to have sexually assaulted and otherwise harassed an aide' would play badly, huh. What makes that hubristic idiocy all the more astounding is that Wellingborough is absolutely the sort of place where especially immense (much of it direct) swings to Labour are occurring anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Tories are down to just 349 seats in Commons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is also interesting that finally Reform somewhat show up but also that they have not done so in the anticipated manner: that their results were about the same in the two constituencies was not expected (especially by them) and is probably quite telling of something.

[YL]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

However I think this Parliament is likely to set a record for the proportion of by-elections where the seat changes hands. The previous record seems to be exactly half, in 1992-97, and if Galloway (or anyone other than Ali, or even him if you don't count him as Labour) wins Rochdale this Parliament will be on 13/22.

[CumbrianLefty]

Surprised at the Reform vote in Kingswood, as that’s what national polling suggests they should actually be getting. On the other hand, Wellingborough is still an underperformance, especially given the collapse in the Tory vote and Reform supposedly targeting the constituency.

Reform had a high profile candidate in Kingswood, surprised more wasn't made of that at the time.

[afleitch]

It is also interesting that finally Reform somewhat show up but also that they have not done so in the anticipated manner: that their results were about the same in the two constituencies was not expected (especially by them) and is probably quite telling of something.

And the Green vote being resilient. Once the campaign started in 2019, the Greens ended up holding on to those who claimed they would vote for them, though had been on a downswing since the Crazy Summer.

This parliament the Green vote has been higher and more stable.

It depends where they stand; they may end up with one seat, but could fight against the current in certain seats that Labour retain.

One to watch for the election after next.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

If you count Rochdale (even if Ali wins) then Blackpool South could make it 14 if there isn't a May GE. Though yes, any more than that is now starting to look a bit of a stretch.

[JimJamUK]

Reform had a high profile candidate in Kingswood, surprised more wasn't made of that at the time.

In Reforms case, that is very much a relative statement.