UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

The Guardian's Helen Pidd on Rochdale

[Torrain]

Man - this by-election is absolutely cursed. You’ve got bigotry from the Green and Labour candidates, Simon Danczuk flirting with the Great Replacement conspiracy on social media, and Galloway racing to outdo even his own track record.

It’s a testament to the anonymity of the modern Lib Dems that they’re not even in the conversation, despite holding this seat within the past decade and a half (although, that’s hardly going to be the Liberal MP people think of when you mention them on the doorstep - which might be the problem, come to think of it).

Presumably Labour are praying they overcome Galloway despite taking a large step backwards, and can then deselect Ali and parachute Waugh in for later in the year?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

One is starting to suspect that the stars (or the asteroids) are aligning for another Galloway upset.

[jaichind]

One is starting to suspect that the stars (or the asteroids) are aligning for another Galloway upset.

If so he will deserve the title "King of By-elections"

[JimJamUK]

Man - this by-election is absolutely cursed. You’ve got bigotry from the Green and Labour candidates, Simon Danczuk flirting with the Great Replacement conspiracy on social media, and Galloway racing to outdo even his own track record.

It’s a testament to the anonymity of the modern Lib Dems that they’re not even in the conversation, despite holding this seat within the past decade and a half (although, that’s hardly going to be the Liberal MP people think of when you mention them on the doorstep - which might be the problem, come to think of it).

Presumably Labour are praying they overcome Galloway despite taking a large step backwards, and can then deselect Ali and parachute Waugh in for later in the year?

Am I alone in thinking that Ali’s controversial remarks will hurt the Galloway vote? It’s obviously going to lose some voters and turnout will fall due to the lack of campaigning, but presumably it helps dent Galloway’s Gaza based campaign.

[Torrain]

Am I alone in thinking that Ali’s controversial remarks will hurt the Galloway vote? It’s obviously going to lose some voters and turnout will fall due to the lack of campaigning, but presumably it helps dent Galloway’s Gaza based campaign.

I think the problem with that is that Ali disavowed his comments - so nobody’s happy. Either you somehow think he’s genuine, and now doesn’t hold Galloway-level views on Gaza, or you think he *does* believe it, but unlike Galloway, he won’t say it.

[Cassius]

One is starting to suspect that the stars (or the asteroids) are aligning for another Galloway upset.

I thought the issue for him in Rochdale was, as in Batley & Spen, that the kind of demographic that propelled him to victory in Bradford a decade ago (with the obvious caveat that not every Galloway voter is a Muslim and not every Muslim is a Galloway voter) simply isn’t big enough for him to pull off a win?

[Torrain]

In a different corner, the Kingswood Tory candidate has an unusual pitch:
https://twitter.com/genevieve_holl/status/1756437717653635488
“Let me be your vessel, NIMBYism incarnate, and six months hence, I will hang up the sword, and return to you.”

[CumbrianLefty]

One is starting to suspect that the stars (or the asteroids) are aligning for another Galloway upset.

I thought the issue for him in Rochdale was, as in Batley & Spen, that the kind of demographic that propelled him to victory in Bradford a decade ago (with the obvious caveat that not every Galloway voter is a Muslim and not every Muslim is a Galloway voter) simply isn’t big enough for him to pull off a win?

He will only win on a fairly fragmented vote - recent events may have made that more likely, sadly.

[YL]

One is starting to suspect that the stars (or the asteroids) are aligning for another Galloway upset.

I thought the issue for him in Rochdale was, as in Batley & Spen, that the kind of demographic that propelled him to victory in Bradford a decade ago (with the obvious caveat that not every Galloway voter is a Muslim and not every Muslim is a Galloway voter) simply isn’t big enough for him to pull off a win?

It probably isn't in normal circumstances but if some of the Labour vote drifts to other candidates or stays at home because of this affair then he might have a chance. In both Bradford West and Batley & Spen his vote share has got quite close to the Muslim proportion of the population. As you say the actual votes aren't going to be exactly what that suggests (and he has been endorsed by Nick Griffin of all people) but it gives a rule of thumb and if you apply it here it gets him close to 30%. A little bit of differential turnout in his favour could get him a little above that, and if he's in the low 30s and the other non-Labour candidates get respectable votes -- e.g. the Tory 15%, Danczuk maybe high single digits, the Lib Dems saving their deposit, scatterings elsewhere -- it's starting to look close.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/elenicourea/status/1757127042632401308

[YL]

My instant reaction to that is that Galloway probably wins now.

[Torrain]

Aye… kinda inevitable though? Zero chance they could deselect Andy McDonald and Kate Osamor, (as seems likely) while sending the shadow cabinet out to campaign for Ali, without the whole thing becoming even more of a car crash.

Big evening to be Paul Waugh though…

[jaichind]

I assume that Azhar Ali continues to run as an independent?

[JimJamUK]

I assume that Azhar Ali continues to run as an independent?

He’s still the Labour candidate on the ballot paper, and will presumably have some local support to continue campaigning.

[YL]

It has been pointed out that Neale Hanvey, the current MP for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, won narrowly in the last General Election in spite of having been suspended by SNP; as with Azhar Ali now, he remained on the ballot paper as their candidate.

(And then they let him back in, but then he defected to Alba.)

[Silent Hunter]

I assume that Azhar Ali continues to run as an independent?

Only way he'd be off the ballot paper is if he died and then you'd have to re-do the by-election.

[Conservatopia]

There is the tiny possibility of the Absolute Banter© scenario where the Tories lose Kingswood on a massive swing but this is overshadowed by a freakish narrow win in Rochdale (where both parties votes crater but Labour much more).

Sunak is emboldened, smarms "the British people support my Five Plunges or whatever", and calls an early election. After being photographed awkwardly wolfing a Greggs sausage roll ("and the plebs, they like this pastry?"), loses the election in a landslide and jets off to California to become the new CFO of X/Twitter.

[Blair]

Oh what a circus oh what a show

[Silent Hunter]

I think we'll be learning more about those "new comments" imminently when the papers are released. Labour would have been advised of them and asked for comment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All this is in line with a single-minded focus on (even the mere appearance of) anti-Semitism from Starmer. To the exclusion of anything else.

[warandwar]

All this is in line with a single-minded focus on (even the mere appearance of) anti-Semitism from Starmer. To the exclusion of anything else.

The comments reported recently just seem in line with what has been reported by mainstream media (that there was an intelligence failure). Labour's problem is that they couldn't have picked anyone who was supportive of Starmer's line on Israel without that defining the by-election, so presumably they picked someone who would neutralize the issue (in their hopes). But now the news will be entirely defined by their mushiness on Gaza.

[jaichind]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All this is in line with a single-minded focus on (even the mere appearance of) anti-Semitism from Starmer. To the exclusion of anything else.

The comments reported recently just seem in line with what has been reported by mainstream media (that there was an intelligence failure). Labour's problem is that they couldn't have picked anyone who was supportive of Starmer's line on Israel without that defining the by-election, so presumably they picked someone who would neutralize the issue (in their hopes). But now the news will be entirely defined by their mushiness on Gaza.

This really sounds like an unforced error.

[DL]

Does the Rochdale seat change much in redistribution? Presumably no matter who wins the byelection its almost certain Labour wins the seat in the general election and this byelection will tell us absolutely nothing about national trends.

From Labour's POV what is the least bad outcome? Ali still winning under the Labour label but having to sit as an independent? Danczuk winning and giving Reform UK a seat? Galloway winning? A Tory coming up the middle? Could the Lib Dems fill the vacuum, they held this seat many years ago