UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Torrain]

The betting markets have moved to show a dead-heat, with Labour poised to pull ahead. Obviously we’re talking about an unscientific, lagging factor. But it does remove one of the few remaining factors the Lib Dems could point to, in order to claim ‘main challenger’ status:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1702621524874702870

[MABA 2020]

Looks like Mid Bed will be excitingly close

[YL]

Looks like Mid Bed will be excitingly close

Possibly, though odds aren't always the most accurate indicator of what's going on on the ground. (See Chesham & Amersham, where the Tories were overwhelming favourites with the betting markets but weren't even close to holding the seat; the markets were also "wrong" in Batley & Spen and Uxbridge & South Ruislip in the sense that the favourite did not win but those were close results and the markets did suggest a reasonable probability of the seats being held.)

As it happens since the tweet quoted above the markets have moved back in the Lib Dems' favour a little.  But I don't know whether the people putting money on them have any idea what is actually happening in Mid Bedfordshire.

[MABA 2020]

Looks like Mid Bed will be excitingly close

Possibly, though odds aren't always the most accurate indicator of what's going on on the ground. (See Chesham & Amersham, where the Tories were overwhelming favourites with the betting markets but weren't even close to holding the seat; the markets were also "wrong" in Batley & Spen and Uxbridge & South Ruislip in the sense that the favourite did not win but those were close results and the markets did suggest a reasonable probability of the seats being held.)

As it happens since the tweet quoted above the markets have moved back in the Lib Dems' favour a little.  But I don't know whether the people putting money on them have any idea what is actually happening in Mid Bedfordshire.

Of course, my comment wasn't just based on the betting market, but on the fact you hear different things from different people and this one is being seriously contested by both Lib Dems and Labour

[YL]

In spite of the mixed track record of such things, I'd like to see another poll of Mid Beds.

[CumbrianLefty]

Seen a claim on Twitter that a Rutherglen poll might be coming soon.

[YL]

Seen a claim on Twitter that a Rutherglen poll might be coming soon.

Link?  Searching Twitter for the words "Rutherglen" and "poll" just finds SNP supporters (and Guido) talking about the latest YouGov poll (which showed quite a swing to them) and using it to suggest that they might hold on.

[Oryxslayer]

In spite of the mixed track record of such things, I'd like to see another poll of Mid Beds.

TFW you know the future

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1703046374407680508?t=juRPxH78A9OKAtpn...

Though in all honesty,  with the track record of by-elections and constituency polls, this really just tells us it's a three-way. Which was already known.

[Torrain]

In spite of the mixed track record of such things, I'd like to see another poll of Mid Beds.

TFW you know the future

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1703046374407680508?t=juRPxH78A9OKAtpn...
Though in all honesty,  with the track record of by-elections and constituency polls, this really just tells us it's a three-way. Which was already known.

Polling accuracy aside - surely this is exactly the result Labour would want from a Mid Beds poll. "It's a dead heat, don't vote Lib Dem and let the Tories back in", is campaign gold dust.

They've basically been gifted the perfect figures for a Lib Dem leaflet bar-chart, and they don't even need to mess with the y-axis, it's ideal for them - "only Labour can beat the Tories here".

[YL]

The Independent is much lower in this poll than in the Opinium one. I'm not very surprised by that, but it's the biggest change between the two polls.

FWIW I believe 29% would be the lowest winning share in a by-election in the era of universal suffrage. I suspect it'll end up a bit higher than that in the end, though.

[Harlow]

What's the lowest winning vote share in any seat, including general elections, since universal suffrage?

[JimJamUK]

What's the lowest winning vote share in any seat, including general elections, since universal suffrage?

Belfast South in 2015 was won by the SDLP with only 24.5%. I’m sure someone else knows a lower figure somewhere.

[YL]

What's the lowest winning vote share in any seat, including general elections, since universal suffrage?

Belfast South in 2015 was won by the SDLP with only 24.5%. I’m sure someone else knows a lower figure somewhere.

That's the lowest Wikipedia's General Election records page knows about.

[adma]

What's the lowest winning vote share in any seat, including general elections, since universal suffrage?

Belfast South in 2015 was won by the SDLP with only 24.5%. I’m sure someone else knows a lower figure somewhere.

That's the lowest Wikipedia's General Election records page knows about.

There's also the immortal Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber 1992 4-way supermarginal result (26.0 Lib Dem, 25.1 Lab, 24.7 SNP, 22.6 Con)

[YL]

Fuller figures and tables for the Survation poll: www.survation.com/mid-bedfordshire-by-election-update/

It appears that all declared candidates were prompted for.

Akinbusoye (Con) 29%
Strathern (Lab) 29%
Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 22%
Holland (Reform UK) 7%
Mackey (Ind) 6%
Victor (True and Fair) 4%
Sibley (Green) 2%

[YL]

Polling accuracy aside - surely this is exactly the result Labour would want from a Mid Beds poll. "It's a dead heat, don't vote Lib Dem and let the Tories back in", is campaign gold dust.

They've basically been gifted the perfect figures for a Lib Dem leaflet bar-chart, and they don't even need to mess with the y-axis, it's ideal for them - "only Labour can beat the Tories here".

You can, however, always rely on the Lib Dems to come up with a bar chart:
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1703096799299326090

[Blair]

Unskew the polls!

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

I’m curious how the long campaign has been influencing this race; I know from a family friend who lives in the seat that they have had leaflets from Labour and the Liberals and been invited to a ‘coffee and chat’ with Labours PPC.

[Blair]

It’s weird how little coverage the Scottish by election is getting- I’ve not even seen a vox pox!

[YL]

It’s weird how little coverage the Scottish by election is getting- I’ve not even seen a vox pox!

I suspect that is a combination of
(a) the media think it's a foregone conclusion (though, again, Chesham & Amersham did happen)
(b) I suspect you'd have seen more coverage if you'd looked at the Herald or the Scotsman

[JimJamUK]

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

Wait, what!?

Truly one of the most random ‘credible’ poll results I’ve ever seen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Unskew the polls!

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

Especially with the Greens on just 2%.

Though the main party figures do look credible - the earlier survey had the Indy implausibly high.

[MaxQue]

Unskew the polls!

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

Especially with the Greens on just 2%.

Though the main party figures do look credible - the earlier survey had the Indy implausibly high.

Not necesseraly wrong then, through. It was right after the local elections (where he would have had an higher profile) and before the big party machines got on the ground.

[Blair]

In funny news a focus group found someone who liked the Labour ppc after hearing about the CCHQ attack story about him being a greenpeace campaigner- its really baffling how slow Westminster is to wake up the fact that people of all political stripes care about the Environment!

[Wiswylfen]

In funny news a focus group found someone who liked the Labour ppc after hearing about the CCHQ attack story about him being a greenpeace campaigner- its really baffling how slow Westminster is to wake up the fact that people of all political stripes care about the Environment!

See also: the bizarre attempts to pretend that the obsessions of (a section of) the Outer London middle class are those of the so-called 'Red Wall'.

[adma]

Unskew the polls!

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

Especially with the Greens on just 2%.

Though the main party figures do look credible - the earlier survey had the Indy implausibly high.

Not necesseraly wrong then, through. It was right after the local elections (where he would have had an higher profile) and before the big party machines got on the ground.

Another possible reason for a high Reform: a shared (partial) name w/the Lib Dem candidate.