UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

I am curious about numbers in terms of volunteers; I saw a journalist claim labour was struggling to get activists at Uxbridge on polling day which didn't really chime with what I saw online & there is a strange tendency both in & away from Labour to think flooding a seat with councillors, wannabe MPs/cllrs, students and political geographers is a somehow a substitute for a good campaign.

[Coldstream]

I’m being sent to Rutherglen, should be interesting - I’ve never campaigned in Scotland before.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

My cousin has been selected as the Conservative PPC for Rutherglen, lol. Nice guy, although I hope he loses.

[Oryxslayer]

I’m being sent to Rutherglen, should be interesting - I’ve never campaigned in Scotland before.

This brings up an interesting possibility. The usual party strategy in a off-cycle contests is to flood the single seat with activists. Is there past evidence of differing doorstep reactions in Scotland (or other devolved areas) if its clear the activist isn't from said community? I know from experience some communities don't like outsiders 'preaching' to them, and sometimes they aren't the ones you expect.

[Joe Republic]

I am intending to help out with canvassing, if I can in my hometown. Not something I've done politically for close to a decade.

Which color are you these days?

[Coldstream]

I’m being sent to Rutherglen, should be interesting - I’ve never campaigned in Scotland before.

This brings up an interesting possibility. The usual party strategy in a off-cycle contests is to flood the single seat with activists. Is there past evidence of differing doorstep reactions in Scotland (or other devolved areas) if its clear the activist isn't from said community? I know from experience some communities don't like outsiders 'preaching' to them, and sometimes they aren't the ones you expect.

It’s a reasonable assumption, although I suspect it’s probably overstated thanks to the anti-Scottish elements in the media post 2014. “Scots all hate the English” etc.

[afleitch]

I am intending to help out with canvassing, if I can in my hometown. Not something I've done politically for close to a decade.

Which color are you these days?

🎗️

[afleitch]

FWIW, and trying to be as non partisan as possible, Labour have been on the defensive in the launch week. Their candidate has said he opposed the two child benefits cap and supports SLABs original position on gender recognition.

So trying to cut the SNP off.

Bold though. Any...'clarification' would be disastrous.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well you never know, but if there was ever going to be any "clarification" it would have come about by now surely? As far as trans issues are concerned, all parties now seem to have an official "line" but give their MPs - including front benchers - the freedom to dissent from it. It has become a de facto issue of conscience, in other words - as topics such as the death penalty and abortion have long been.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/CllrMcHuntSNP/status/1687433113784242176?s=20
Is this parody?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/CllrMcHuntSNP/status/1687433113784242176?s=20
Is this parody?

Yeah, that’s a parody account. It was blocked by Stephen Flynn a few weeks back. A unionist mutual follows it, so it slips into my feed occasionally.

[Blair]

The real problem imho will be stupid activists who make flippant comments on the doorstep; honourable members do spend a lot of time talking to the public so should be slightly better than retired geography teachers

[Coldstream]

The real problem imho will be stupid activists who make flippant comments on the doorstep; honourable members do spend a lot of time talking to the public so should be slightly better than retired geography teachers

I’d be shocked if any English activist actually went all the way to Rutherglen. I’m expecting all staff & Scottish members. With the odd student at a Scottish uni depending on the time.

[afleitch]

The real problem imho will be stupid activists who make flippant comments on the doorstep; honourable members do spend a lot of time talking to the public so should be slightly better than retired geography teachers

I’d be shocked if any English activist actually went all the way to Rutherglen. I’m expecting all staff & Scottish members. With the odd student at a Scottish uni depending on the time.

Scottish Labour don't have a large enough activist base. They would be foolish to reject

Given that the selection process apparently led Rutherglen CLP to lodge complaint over the whole thing, it's not a foregone conclusion that even local activists will be highly engaged.

[Blair]

I’ve seen a few who are going but it tends to be the keener ones; it’s also funnily enough almost easier to get than some of the recent English by elections!

The real problem imho will be stupid activists who make flippant comments on the doorstep; honourable members do spend a lot of time talking to the public so should be slightly better than retired geography teachers

I’d be shocked if any English activist actually went all the way to Rutherglen. I’m expecting all staff & Scottish members. With the odd student at a Scottish uni depending on the time.

Scottish Labour don't have a large enough activist base. They would be foolish to reject

Given that the selection process apparently led Rutherglen CLP to lodge complaint over the whole thing, it's not a foregone conclusion that even local activists will be highly engaged.

Tbf is it really a labour selection if someone from the CLP doesn’t resign or complain?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's usually Mick* (widely seen as a bit of an arse, but who is nevertheless the Chair of the CLP or some officer in it because no one else wanted the post) who flounces out because a councillor or former councillor who is a mate was not shortlisted or lost the selection, or because they dislike the candidate actually selected. I suppose in a Scottish context, 'Mick' becomes 'Tommy'.

_{*A few decades ago it would have been Reg, but times move on.}

[afleitch]

It's usually Mick* (widely seen as a bit of an arse, but who is nevertheless the Chair of the CLP or some officer in it because no one else wanted the post) who flounces out because a councillor or former councillor who is a mate was not shortlisted or lost the selection, or because they dislike the candidate actually selected. I suppose in a Scottish context, 'Mick' becomes 'Tommy'.

_{*A few decades ago it would have been Reg, but times move on.}

In this instance the top three candidates were barred from standing. Shanks was shortlisted despite having previously quit the party in 2019 then rejoining. The vote also took place under FPTP rather than STV. Hence the complaint.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nadine Dorries is now apparently dropping strong hints she will finally resign her seat next month (when the Commons summer recess comes to an end)

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1688980953312489473
I think the takeaway from this is LibDementum! LibDementum! Not sure what else it might be.

[Benjamin Frank]

Hah, the Liberal Democrats tweeted out the same point.

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1688981633406226433

[Benjamin Frank]

Of course, just a poll, but the final in this Conservative horror trilogy.

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1688990401502347264

[Oryxslayer]

Hah, the Liberal Democrats tweeted out the same point.

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1688981633406226433

I mean if the polling stays similar to what it is, especially the Lab-Lib tactical voting that presently exists in this "oust the Tories" atmosphere, a Lib-Dem result that is below 35 is a utter disappointing failure. 40 might even be a better benchmark given all the low-hanging Tory fruit for the Lib-Dems in particular after 2019.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1689306849835724801

By-election implications - Labour would be heavily favoured in Rutherglen (and another 15-25 seats, depending on whether swing was national, or more tactical) on those numbers.

R&W have some sampling issues, so take with a pinch of salt. Felt noteworthy though - and their Scottish Lib Dem numbers seem to have come back down from an artificial high a few months back.

[DL]

How do the SNP and Labour compare in terms of vote efficiency in Scotland? In other words if they were tied in the PV, would one of them likely win a lot more seats than the other?

My suspicion is that at parity Labour could be more efficient since the SNP is competitive in every single part of Scotland, urban and rural so when they win big they win almost every seat but when their vote drops they are vulnerable. Labour's vote in Scotland is more concentrated in urban areas and there are some rural seats where labour is typically in fourth place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The SNP vote has almost always been remarkably evenly distributed, which has variously been their greatest asset and their greatest burden depending on quite how high that vote has been. The Labour vote in Scotland has historically tracked both traditional patterns of industry (now usually long-dead, but that isn't the point) and also regional urban centres, the latter actually more so than has often been the case in England. Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.