UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Identical share in Somerton for the Tories in 2019 and LibDems now - that's pretty striking.

[oldtimer]

On the above people still get angry as they say they were ‘told’ to buy diesel…

Fluorescent lights too, instead of Led lights.

Governments have not been very good at picking products.

[afleitch]

Some by-election stats.

Based on the six by-elections under Sunak, Labour have a 13.6 lead over the Tories.

Here is the figure for previous elections across the same seats v UK difference

2019: -7.4 (-11.5)
2017: -1 (-2.3)
2015: 10.4 (-6.4)
2010: -12.5 (-7.1)
2005: -4 (2.6) (notional results)

So these seats were generally trending towards Labour, even accounting for 2019 (City of Chester being a prime example) having previously been more Tory than the rest of the country.

In 1997, under older boundaries, there was a Labour lead of 9.9.

In terms of vote share, Labour polled 45.7% in 1997 and 43% in the by-elections. The Lib Dems polled 15% in 1997 compared to 15.4% and the Tories 35.8% in 1997 to 29.4%.

While the Lib Dems aren't polling as well as they did at their high water mark in 2005 and 2010, even the raw %s do suggest a similar picture to the 1997 result.

The result is slightly less flattering for Labour if we account for partisan drift, which would give a national lead of around 9.5 but still comfortable.

[YL]

Rutherglen & Hamilton West recall petition succeeds:

https://twitter.com/SouthLanCouncil/status/1686407866024882176

The by-election is likely to be in early October.

[somerandomth]

This will certainly be an interesting by-election to see exactly how much Labour can realistically recover in SNP-Lab marginals by the next election and how ed the SNP is without Sturgeon. I'm expecting a Labour gain with around a 5-10% majority, but it's very early on

[MacShimidh]

No two ways about it, it’s a must-win for Labour if their much-vaunted “Scottish revival” is to mean anything at all. It’s a seat they held from 2017-2019 and given the circumstances, they have to start as the slight (but by no means prohibitive) favourites.

An SNP hold, no matter how narrow, would quite fairly be seen as a major vindication for them after some pretty rancid months.

[JimJamUK]

I would go further than others. Labour shouldn’t just be winning this, they should be doing so comfortably if the polls are remotely accurate.

[YL]

The number of signatures is a bit lower than I'd thought it might be, and the percentage considerably lower than in the other two successful petitions.  I don't know whether that should be taken as a sign that it might not be quite such an easy Labour gain or not; we don't exactly have a lot of data on recall petitions.

I agree though that Labour really need to win the by-election.

[Blair]

Can one of our fine posters do a summary of the constituency?

[somerandomth]

Can one of our fine posters do a summary of the constituency?

Not an expert on the constituency, but the post on the constituency over on the vote2012 forum is useful I found

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The number of signatures is a bit lower than I'd thought it might be, and the percentage considerably lower than in the other two successful petitions.  I don't know whether that should be taken as a sign that it might not be quite such an easy Labour gain or not; we don't exactly have a lot of data on recall petitions.

I think, above anything else, it's a reflection of the fact that the thing she did that led to her recall happened almost three years ago. It also helps that, while she did whine a bit, Ferrier never publicly compared herself to Jesus on the cross, and her party immediately cut her loose.

[Torrain]

Yet another Ferryier cancelled in Scotland.

[Zinneke]

Who are all these scots invading the forum

[icc]

I would go further than others. Labour shouldn’t just be winning this, they should be doing so comfortably if the polls are remotely accurate.

Though a by-election is much tougher for Labour than a GE in this context as they can’t use the ‘give us a majority’ messaging which will be the centrepiece of their Scottish campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

I would go further than others. Labour shouldn’t just be winning this, they should be doing so comfortably if the polls are remotely accurate.

Though a by-election is much tougher for Labour than a GE in this context as they can’t use the ‘give us a majority’ messaging which will be the centrepiece of their Scottish campaign.

OTOH, the other two unionist parties are irrelevant in this type of by-election,  whereas in a GE or Scottish election there is still value in casting a vote for them even though this seat is unwinnable.  There is the potential for extreme unionist tactical voting even when compared to the normal unionist tactical behavior, which is rising.

[Tintrlvr]

I would go further than others. Labour shouldn’t just be winning this, they should be doing so comfortably if the polls are remotely accurate.

Though a by-election is much tougher for Labour than a GE in this context as they can’t use the ‘give us a majority’ messaging which will be the centrepiece of their Scottish campaign.

I'm not sure "give us a majority" is a winning message anyway. It seems like left-wing voters who have voted SNP in the past would probably prefer a Labour minority that needs the SNP to govern to a Labour majority.

[afleitch]

Can one of our fine posters do a summary of the constituency?

It's my hometown seat. I can write something up later.

---

A Labour gain is expected. TBH, this was probably a gain if the circumstances of the recall were the same, six or more months ago simply based on the polling.

Being a Westminster by-election, I expect Labour to make it as little to do with Westminster, particularly given very recent divergence on welfare and other issues between what position the national party holds and what Scottish Labour has campaigned on.

The SNP will of course, make it very much about Westminster for that reason.

[Хahar 🤔]

I would go further than others. Labour shouldn’t just be winning this, they should be doing so comfortably if the polls are remotely accurate.

Though a by-election is much tougher for Labour than a GE in this context as they can’t use the ‘give us a majority’ messaging which will be the centrepiece of their Scottish campaign.

I'm not sure "give us a majority" is a winning message anyway. It seems like left-wing voters who have voted SNP in the past would probably prefer a Labour minority that needs the SNP to govern to a Labour majority.

Swings toward Labour in 2017 would suggest that this is not the case. In general I do not think that voters express preferences in this way.

[Blair]

I feel very stupid when posting about Scottish politics but I am generally curious how much of the
former labour voters who vote SNP are people driven by the issue of independence versus people who are wanting to vote for a viable social Democratic alternative. I’m sure a bit of it is both factors…

It is ofc complicated by the fact that people in their 30s could have easily have voted SNP in every election- a lot of Westminster and the media still act as if the Slab dominance of the 90s was one or two terms ago.

[afleitch]

Seat Profile - Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Fun fact. If Labour win this seat, this will be their first Westminster by-election pick up under normal circumstances in Scotland since...Rutherglen!

In 1964.

(Glasgow North East in 2009 was a Labour gain from the outgoing Speaker, who himself was from Labour)

Rutherglen and Hamilton West is a seat that takes in the entirety of the old Burgh of Rutherglen, Cambuslang, Fernhill and Halfway/Newton all within the Glasgow conurbation (and in the City itself from 1975 to 1996) Outside of this, the seat includes the town of Blantyre (woop), and the 'west' part of Hamilton; Udston, Hillhouse and Earnock.

Post 2000 housebuilding was quite substantial in the outskirts of Newton (and still proliferates) and in Earnock. These areas are the most 'middle class' parts of the seat alongside the townhouses of Burnside and Kirkhill. Other parts of the seat are areas of high deprivation including parts of Fernhill, Blantyre and Hillhouse

Demographically, the seat itself is relatively close to the Scottish average on most measures (as per Electoral Calculus)

Labour's performance in the seat has shifted broadly in line with Labour's performance across Scotland; good or bad.

From 2005 to 2017, Labour's vote share here was between 1.38 to 1.45 times Labour's vote share in Scotland. In 2019, it was 1.85 times, suggestive of strong unionist tactical voting in the seat.

Labour's vote share dipped by only 3% in 2019; it's second smallest drop in Scotland.

The SNP majority is currently 9.7%.

There's still some Tory vote to squeeze. They won 15% last time. The lowest they have obtained in the seat is 7.6% in 2015 and prior to that, 8.4% in 2005.

They are currently polling (though there hasn't been any polls in the field during July) in the high teens, still somewhat better than the 1997-2015 period. They are down between 5 to 7 points on 2019. It would take huge stripping of not just switchers, but their core vote to drop to less than what they got in 2015, when their vote was most tactically applied to 'stopping the SNP'.

The Lib Dem vote has also been squeezed over the years from 18.4% in 2005 (when they came second); to 5.2% in 2019 (and as low as 1.8% in 2015)

So while there is a vote to squeeze, that in itself would not be enough to overturn the SNP majority. Labour need switchers.

Labour got switchers in 2017 and as mentioned earlier, broadly held on to them. What they require is direct SNP to Labour switchers, or a depressed SNP turnout in lieu.

Absolutely not a problem, given the voting behaviour in 2017.

What the SNP need

Not to lose 'bigly'. If the SNP can win around 37%; in line with what they got in 2017 (even if Labour's vote is stronger) then it can be relatively comfortable in it's loss. Particularly in a by-election.

There is a Catch 22 with the Tory and Lib Dem shares (plus new entrants). If they hold up, it could limit Labour's winning margin. But if they hold up and Labour storm it, then it's a bigger number of SNP switchers/abstainers that shape the result.

EDIT: In terms of the SNP share it has tracked on average 1.01 times the SNP national share since 2015 (when there was a geographic re-sort of voting behaviour) So something else to watch out for.

[afleitch]

I am intending to help out with canvassing, if I can in my hometown. Not something I've done politically for close to a decade.

[afleitch]

A word on 'spoilers', preference data from the two recent Lanarkshire local by-elections give a very brief indication of who minor parties would pull votes from. (by analysing the second preferences of those smaller parties where those second preferences are 'the big four')

Alba (on a very small number) second preferences go 67% to SNP, 30% to Labour and 3% Lib Dem; so proportionately we would expect that pull from the main parties if they stand.

Greens (on a bigger number) are 70% SNP, 19% Labour, 12% Lib Dem and 1% Tory.

Others who in both election could be described as 'right wing' as is now defined in the culture war are are 53% Tory, 37% Labour, 5% SNP and 5% Lib Dem.

There was an independent candidate in East Kilbride who had a general left slant, but isn't easy to categorise.

So far we have some left wing candidates declaring, so all this might be moot if the right wing minor parties stay out.

[Blair]

I wonder if Alba will stand I saw they put out a statement calling for a single indie candidate.

My hunch was always that the Scottish Government would fall to Labour before a majority of seats in Scotland went to SLAB (as it did in reverse to the SNP in ‘07) and because you can see the logic in a Yes voter wanting to send an SNP MP to Westminster but wanting someone new to run the devolved services.

I am intending to help out with canvassing, if I can in my hometown. Not something I've done politically for close to a decade.

Will be fun watching how many honourable members from the PLP visit- I seem to recall they sent loads up towards the end of Indyref which errrr lead to some quite funny scenes, including lots of them finally clocking there might be a problem as SLABs canvass data hadn’t been done since 1999.

[CumbrianLefty]

I seem to recall they sent loads up towards the end of Indyref which errrr lead to some quite funny scenes, including lots of them finally clocking there might be a problem as SLABs canvass data hadn’t been done since 1999.

I think there were some infamous instances of such a dearth going back rather longer than that.

[Blair]

I seem to recall they sent loads up towards the end of Indyref which errrr lead to some quite funny scenes, including lots of them finally clocking there might be a problem as SLABs canvass data hadn’t been done since 1999.

I think there were some infamous instances of such a dearth going back rather longer than that.

The best and the brightest ofc!