Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal

[adma]

Controversial!

I don't like the name "Renfrew" for that riding. The riding's current name is terrible (I would go with "Renfrew-Algonquin" myself), but tacking on anything to it would make it worse. I wonder if a completely new name would be popular: "Upper Ottawa Valley"?.

The trouble with "Renfrew-Algonquin" is that the heart (or most "developed" part) of Algonquin Park is in Nipissing-Timiskaming--though one could always annex that into the riding, unless that made things too geographically unmanageable.  (Maybe "Renfrew-Madawaska-Pembroke" as an alternative?)

I'd probably keep the Kanata-Carleton name instead of re-naming it Kanata-Bell. And I'd drop the "South" from Leeds-Grenville-South Lanark. 

Or invert it to Leeds-Grenville-Lanark South, kind of like Northumberland-Peterborough South.  (Which is a deceiving name, as the "Peterborough South" is P'boro *County*, not the city)

[Hatman 🍁]

Controversial!

I don't like the name "Renfrew" for that riding. The riding's current name is terrible (I would go with "Renfrew-Algonquin" myself), but tacking on anything to it would make it worse. I wonder if a completely new name would be popular: "Upper Ottawa Valley"?.

The trouble with "Renfrew-Algonquin" is that the heart (or most "developed" part) of Algonquin Park is in Nipissing-Timiskaming--though one could always annex that into the riding, unless that made things too geographically unmanageable.  (Maybe "Renfrew-Madawaska-Pembroke" as an alternative?)

I'd probably keep the Kanata-Carleton name instead of re-naming it Kanata-Bell. And I'd drop the "South" from Leeds-Grenville-South Lanark. 

Or invert it to Leeds-Grenville-Lanark South, kind of like Northumberland-Peterborough South.  (Which is a deceiving name, as the "Peterborough South" is P'boro *County*, not the city)

Algonquin Park isn't really developed at all. The only municipality in Nipissing District in the riding is South Algonquin, hence why I'd rather have Algonquin in the name than "Nipissing".

Northumberland-Peterborough South is also a dumb name. Not sure why they changed it from the originally planned "Northumberland-Pine Ridge". I suppose the "South" was needed to differentiate it from the city in someway. Not really a problem with Lanark (although there is a small village in the county also called Lanark).

[Krago]

Fixed

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Here are the highlights:
- Lanark County kept intact, with South Frontenac (and Kingston north of the 401) moved to Leeds-Grenville
- Renfrew is now Upper Ottawa Valley
- New names includes Kanata and Barrhaven (if Orleans, then why not)

[Hatman 🍁]

You need a name for the new Leeds-Grenville riding (Leeds-Grenville-Frontenac is the obvious choice).

Barrhaven doesn't work as a name, because a lot of the riding (everything north of Fallowfield) doesn't live in Barrhaven (Orleans is a bit different, as only about 10% live outside of Orleans). "Nepean South" would be a better name. Also, why just "Kanata". Most of the geographical part of the riding is outside of Kanata. Looks like most of the rural area is in what used to be Huntley Twp, so why not go with "Kanata-Huntley"?

[Krago]

Leeds--Grenville--South Frontenac it is.

The 15% of residents living north of Fallowfield Road can suck it up.  Barrhaven rules!  South Nepean drools!

Kanata residents comprise 80% of the population of Kanata riding.  That's close enough for government work.

[Hatman 🍁]

If I were making rules for riding names, one of them would be that any part of the riding that makes up at least 10% of the riding's population should be represented in the riding's name. If that makes things messy, then the riding needs to adopt very broad, all-encompassing name.

[Krago]

Now that the election is finished, for a few months at least, we can get back to the important stuff.

On September 17, Statistics Canada released a new set of population projections:
Population projections: Canada, provinces and territories, 2018 to 2068

I plugged the numbers for 2021 into the seat allocation formula, and came up with these seat estimates for the next federal redistribution.

Projection scenario	NL	PE	NS	NB	QC	ON	MB	SK	AB	BC	YT	NT	NU	Canada
Current seats	7	4	11	10	78	121	14	14	34	42	1	1	1	338
LG: low-growth	7	4	11	10	77	122	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	343
M1: medium-growth	7	4	11	10	77	123	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	344
M2: medium-growth	7	4	11	10	77	123	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	344
M3: medium-growth	7	4	11	10	76	122	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	342
M4: medium-growth	7	4	11	10	76	122	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	342
M5: medium-growth	7	4	11	10	76	123	14	14	37	43	1	1	1	342
HG: high-growth	7	4	11	10	77	123	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	344
SA: slow-aging	7	4	11	10	77	123	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	344
FA: fast-aging	7	4	11	10	77	122	14	14	38	43	1	1	1	343

In all scenarios Quebec would lose at least one seat.  Here are the relevant sections (51, 51A) of the Constitution, if someone wishes to double-check.

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-2.html#h-6

[Hatman 🍁]

I think with the BQ has the balance of power there is no way they will let the government reduce the number of seats in Quebec. I mean, even the NDP was able to convince the Tories to give seats to Quebec in the last redistribution.

[Krago]

Guelph has hired a consultant (not me!) to redraw its ward boundaries this year.  It currently has six two-member wards.

Here is my first attempt at creating 12 single-member wards, using the 2016 Census figures as a guideline.


Proposed Guelph Ward Map

[Krago]

Is it possible to get a Subject renamed?

This thread has become a catch-all for Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal.

I sent two messages to the Mods last fall, but have received no response.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it possible to get a Subject renamed?

Yes, just edit the subject line in the first post.

[Krago]

Bless you.

[Njall]

That reminds me: the City of Edmonton is currently conducting a ward boundary review as well. For the first time, a citizens' commission will be leading the process and making recommendations to Council. This is the first major boundary review since the 2009 review which saw the six previous two-member wards redrawn into 12 single-member wards. Even though Edmonton's population is approaching 1 million people, there was no appetite from Council to increase the number of wards.

The commission put forward two proposals for public consultation, and those can be found here. If I have time, I may make a scenario or two of my own.

I expect Calgary to also be conducting a review this year, but given the relatively-major redraw that happened in 2016, I wouldn't expect that one to result in too much change.

[Hatman 🍁]

No appetite to increase council size? smh.

I think Calgary's wards are second only to Toronto's in terms of population size. Edmonton must not be far behind.

[Krago]

A few changes to Alberta and Ontario.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Here are the highlights:

- Edmonton South includes recently annexed area
- area between Lacombe and Cochrane changed from north-south to east-west orientation

- Bradford added to SE Barrie and Innisfil
- Wasaga Beach and most of Springwater added to renamed Simcoe West
- SW Barrie added to renamed Barrie--Oro--Midhurst

[Hatman 🍁]

not a big fan of that Barrie split.

[Krago]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/new-ward-boundaries-proposed-for-edmonton-ahead-of-2021-election/wcm/4c694988-2d44-4413-94ed-4f9d98b1be75/amp/

http://daveberta.ca/2020/05/new-ward-boundaries-could-shake-up-edmontons-2021-election/

https://albertapolitics.ca/2020/05/guest-post-by-john-ashton-dont-let-inner-city-ward-7s-needs-be-forgotten-in-edmontons-new-ward-map/

[Poirot]

Quebec municipal elections are planned for November 2021. We aree in the period of time cities need to adopt by-laws for districts.

Montreal is proposing changes to the three districts in the Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles borough. The rest stays the same.
https://election-montreal.qc.ca/projetreglement/projet-reglement-districts.en.html

[Hatman 🍁]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/new-ward-boundaries-proposed-for-edmonton-ahead-of-2021-election/wcm/4c694988-2d44-4413-94ed-4f9d98b1be75/amp/

http://daveberta.ca/2020/05/new-ward-boundaries-could-shake-up-edmontons-2021-election/

https://albertapolitics.ca/2020/05/guest-post-by-john-ashton-dont-let-inner-city-ward-7s-needs-be-forgotten-in-edmontons-new-ward-map/

Upset that they're not considering adding a seat or two, or more.

[Njall]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/new-ward-boundaries-proposed-for-edmonton-ahead-of-2021-election/wcm/4c694988-2d44-4413-94ed-4f9d98b1be75/amp/

http://daveberta.ca/2020/05/new-ward-boundaries-could-shake-up-edmontons-2021-election/

https://albertapolitics.ca/2020/05/guest-post-by-john-ashton-dont-let-inner-city-ward-7s-needs-be-forgotten-in-edmontons-new-ward-map/

Upset that they're not considering adding a seat or two, or more.

Same, although at least this map is better than either of the concepts they proposed.

There's also been talk of them perhaps naming the wards instead of numbering them, which would be nice.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's the historical reason behind Canadian cities having so few wards in comparison to the rest of the world?

[Estrella]

What's the historical reason behind Canadian cities having so few wards in comparison to the rest of the world?

Maybe it's just a general North American 'small government' thing. The US also has many ridiculously small city councils.

[Krago]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/new-ward-boundaries-proposed-for-edmonton-ahead-of-2021-election/wcm/4c694988-2d44-4413-94ed-4f9d98b1be75/amp/

http://daveberta.ca/2020/05/new-ward-boundaries-could-shake-up-edmontons-2021-election/

https://albertapolitics.ca/2020/05/guest-post-by-john-ashton-dont-let-inner-city-ward-7s-needs-be-forgotten-in-edmontons-new-ward-map/

Upset that they're not considering adding a seat or two, or more.

Same, although at least this map is better than either of the concepts they proposed.

There's also been talk of them perhaps naming the wards instead of numbering them, which would be nice.

City council asks for Indigenous names to be chosen for Edmonton’s new ward boundaries

[Krago]

Twitter user ksituan northland (@kitsuan) created a map showing Ontario with 16 U.S. Congressional-sized districts (avg. pop. 840K).

https://twitter.com/ksituan/status/1274708051610660864?s=20

Here's my kick at the can: https://tinyurl.com/Ontario16CD

(1)  I allowed for a 1% deviation from the average population.
(2)  Don't mind the names.

[Storr]

Trends are real (even in Canada): https://twitter.com/ksituan/status/1274818911439998976?s=20

But seriously, I find their scenario interesting because Canada would be simply added to the current US House, without increasing the number of representatives. Thus why Ontario has the same number of representatives as Ohio does in our timeline, while having around 3 million more people.

https://twitter.com/ksituan/status/1275071685738106883?s=20