POLL: Primaries aside, who of these 3 dems has the strongest chance of flipping the PA senate seat?

[MargieCat]

Who is the strongest candidate to flip this seat?

Should democrats go the moderate blue dog route with hopes of getting swing voters? In this scenario, they would go with Lamb. He hasn't entered the race yet, but I assume he will.

Should they go after WWC with the more populist progressive John Fetterman? His big drawback is the jogger incident.

Or go should they go with Kenyatta, and try to get high turnout in Philadelphia?

Also, they have other options like Boyle, Wild, Dean, Houlahan, etc. But for this poll, it's between Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb.

[GALeftist]

The one I like

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

John Fetterman because he is 6'8''.  Anyone who is over 6'5'' wins in the midwest.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fetterman, because I'm supporting him.

In all seriousness, I don't believe the outcome/margins will change regardless who the Dems nominate. Partisanship & turnout reigns surpreme

[MargieCat]

Fetterman, because I'm supporting him.

In all seriousness, I don't believe the outcome/margins will change regardless who the Dems nominate. Partisanship & turnout reigns surpreme

That's true, but turnout is improved when people are excited about a candidate. I don't think Lamb would get the same turnout as Fetterman.

Also turnout is a function how strong a campaigner the eventual nominee is.

This will be a close race, so every variable matters.

[Morning in Atlas]

Fetterman. Kenyatta will also be stronger than expected, given that he too gives people a reason to vote for him.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fetterman, because I'm supporting him.

In all seriousness, I don't believe the outcome/margins will change regardless who the Dems nominate. Partisanship & turnout reigns surpreme

That's true, but turnout is improved when people are excited about a candidate. I don't think Lamb would get the same turnout as Fetterman.

Also turnout is a function how strong a campaigner the eventual nominee is.

This will be a close race, so every variable matters.

You're right. I guess it'd be more valid for me to say "Persuasion doesn't mean much as it used to, especially compared to partisanship & turnout".

[SnowLabrador]

I'd say Fetterman.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

The one I like

[Orser67]

Fetterman and Lamb are about in the same tier for me, though I'd go with Lamb, in part because he has a stronger electoral track record. I think Kenyatta is clearly the weakest.

[Inmate Trump]

I wanna be Conor's lamb.

[Meatball Ron]

I'd probably peg as something along the lines of -

1. Dean / Houlahan (base in the Philly suburbs good for both turnout in this region and "persuasion" - mitigating any risk of a portion of this group reverting to their Republican ways)
2. Kenyatta (strongest turnout among black voters, youth, and LGBT, running up the score in Philly; should also play well enough in the suburbs)
3. Fetterman (a strong candidate overall, no doubt, but I think the opportunity to win back working class white / Obama-Trump voters is significantly over-stated (especially with a Bernie-endorsed socialist); turnout should be a little lower in Philly/suburbs, not necessarily because of jogger incident but more because he isn't based here)
4. Lamb (some of the same disadvantages of Fetterman - doesn't come from and therefore won't be juicing turnout in the largest / most lucrative area of the state - but also less exciting / inspiring overall; also likely has limited potential to make actually meaningful inroads with WWC / Obama-Trump voters)

[S019]

Lamb of these choices, but best overall is probably Houlahan or Wild

[gerritcole]

Dwight Evans

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Fetterman and Lamb seems like a push, but the former seems like he has more name rec

[Xing]

The one I like

Yep.

In all seriousness, I don't think it'll make more than a slight difference, and it's hard to know at this point who would hypothetically run a better campaign.

[ctherainbow]

The one I like

This.  Trying to pin down which candidate will be the “strongest” in the GE this far out is... questionable at best.    💀

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The one starting with statewide name rec.