Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Zinneke]

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

Junts is rather unpredictable,  but even Puigdemont must be aware of the message sent by Catalan voters. This is the worst result for Catalan nationalist parties in general elections since 1979. Of course many PSC votes are borrowed, but that's telling something about the way Sánchez approached the Catalan question

Pedro Sánchez has been the perfect underdog in these elections ("Perro Sánchez" 🐶), on the other hand. He will be presiding the EU's Spanish semester as acting PM. That would be quite something in case of a repeat election

Indeed, the Catalan parties took a big pounding. Even Junts lost a bit of ground, but, I'm not sure if Puigdemont's ego will get the message Velasco.

I mean, to play the Devil's Advocate because seemingly no one here is willing to, it has nothing to do with ego, even if "President" has a big one. It has to do with leveraging what hand the electorate gave you. The idea that these people (who have been exiled from their families, had their phones illegally hacked or given jail time for organizing the horrible, despicable act of putting papers in ballot boxes) wouldn't want that pardon and scrapped because "the will of the Catalan people" following a General Election has been decided is laughable.

If you want to define the will of the Catalan people, let them have a vote.

(It's rather amusing that the Spanish press too are talking of "the will of the Catalan people being decided" but found every excuse under the sun when the pro-independence parties won a majority several times over)

[Logical]

ElDiario has some good graphics on seats that are still in play pending the CERA vote.
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/ultimo-escano-provincia-ganadores-perderdores-en-directo_1_10394283.html

[DL]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

[Velasco]

[the will of the Catalan people, let them have a vote.

(It's rather amusing that the Spanish press too are talking of "the will of the Catalan people being decided" but found every excuse under the sun when the pro-independence parties won a majority several times over)

I don't dispute that certain Spanish press loves counting apples and oranges. However, a number of  Catalans have voted in a general election. They expressed a clear will of preventing a reactionary coalition in Spain, because most of them are not interested in a reactivation of the conflict (hey, Carles, read the message)

As for referenda and related issues, I concur with elements within the Spanish left saying Catalans should vote after a political agreement negotiated between all Catalan parties

Catalan nationalists only won a majority of popular vote in 2021, when turnout dropped dramatically due to COVID-19 and voter fatigue

[Bacon King]

ElDiario has some good graphics on seats that are still in play pending the CERA vote.
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/ultimo-escano-provincia-ganadores-perderdores-en-directo_1_10394283.html

how do Catalan seperatists perform in CERA votes? because don't look now but Junts is extremely close to losing two seats!

one to PP in Girona and one to PSC in Tarragona

[icc]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

I believe they are only included in the 'escrutinio definitivo' between 28-31 July.

I don't know how many are expected though? There would have to be quite a few to change the outcome in any one province.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How powerful is the senate? If the right controls that body does it screw over Sanchez?

[brucejoel99]

How powerful is the senate? If the right controls that body does it screw over Sanchez?

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1683371591902674944

[jaichind]

But I thought the Lower House can overturn Senate veto only with a absolute majority in the Lower House which would be tricky for any PSOE government even if it somehow got Junts to abstain.

[CumbrianLefty]

How powerful is the senate? If the right controls that body does it screw over Sanchez?

Not very, appears to be the simplified answer.

The electoral system there giving the PP an overall majority has raised some eyebrows.

[Mike88]

A few updates:

- Clara Ponsati, MEP from Junts, was arrested this morning in Barcelona;

- And the Spanish Public Prosecutor has asked for an international mandate to arrest Puigdemont. In reaction, Puigdemont tweeted this:

One day you are decisive for the formation of a Spanish government and the next day Spain orders your arrest.

[Vosem]

Also, the PSOE's second place in this election is almost a victory. No recorded poll predicted that performance. Never understimate Perro Sánchez

1996 vibes: "Nunca una derrota fue tan dulce y nunca una victoria fue tan amarga"

The Spanish right under-performs in national elections quite a lot, doesn't it? Even besides not winning a landslide in 1996, both 2004 and 2008 were on some level expected to be comfortable victories for them and both ended up as pretty narrow left-wing wins.

[icc]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

I believe they are only included in the 'escrutinio definitivo' between 28-31 July.

I don't know how many are expected though? There would have to be quite a few to change the outcome in any one province.

Here are the number of votes by constituency from 2019: http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

The only provinces where the number of votes needed to change the result is lower than the number of CERA ballots in 2019:
Girona, Cantabria, Tarragona, Madrid, Salamanca, Guipuzkoa, Malaga

Of those, the only one that looks like a plausible change is Madrid (which would be a PP gain from PSOE).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Spanish right under-performs in national elections quite a lot, doesn't it? Even besides not winning a landslide in 1996, both 2004 and 2008 were on some level expected to be comfortable victories for them and both ended up as pretty narrow left-wing wins.

The PSOE has no greater friends than its various enemies (by which I don't just mean the PP).

[kaoras]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

I believe they are only included in the 'escrutinio definitivo' between 28-31 July.

I don't know how many are expected though? There would have to be quite a few to change the outcome in any one province.

Here are the number of votes by constituency from 2019: http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

The only provinces where the number of votes needed to change the result is lower than the number of CERA ballots in 2019:
Girona, Cantabria, Tarragona, Madrid, Salamanca, Guipuzkoa, Malaga

Of those, the only one that looks like a plausible change is Madrid (which would be a PP gain from PSOE).

CERA was made easier and participation went up a lot.
Also, PP will not gain anything from PSOE in CERA because CERA is very left wing

[kaoras]

Also, the PSOE's second place in this election is almost a victory. No recorded poll predicted that performance. Never understimate Perro Sánchez

1996 vibes: "Nunca una derrota fue tan dulce y nunca una victoria fue tan amarga"

The Spanish right under-performs in national elections quite a lot, doesn't it? Even besides not winning a landslide in 1996, both 2004 and 2008 were on some level expected to be comfortable victories for them and both ended up as pretty narrow left-wing wins.

2008 went exactly as expected at the time. 2004 had PP lying and trying to blame ETA for the terrorists attacks in Madrid just a few days before the elections.

The April election in 2019 is a better example actually, that was a massive right wing choke.

[icc]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

I believe they are only included in the 'escrutinio definitivo' between 28-31 July.

I don't know how many are expected though? There would have to be quite a few to change the outcome in any one province.

Here are the number of votes by constituency from 2019: http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

The only provinces where the number of votes needed to change the result is lower than the number of CERA ballots in 2019:
Girona, Cantabria, Tarragona, Madrid, Salamanca, Guipuzkoa, Malaga

Of those, the only one that looks like a plausible change is Madrid (which would be a PP gain from PSOE).

CERA was made easier and participation went up a lot.
Also, PP will not gain anything from PSOE in CERA because CERA is very left wing

Is there any evidence that participation has increased a lot (certainly it stands to reason given the changes, but do we have anything beyond anecdote)?

As for it being left wing, that is a generalisation. As you can see from the spreadsheet I posted, the PP+Cs vote in 2019 was 2.5k higher than that of the PSOE in the CERA vote.

[Zinneke]

The Secretary General of Podemos, Ione Belarra, is tackling Yolanda Diaz hard :

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230724/9130580/belarra-culpa-diaz-perdida-votos-renuncia-feminismo-e-invisibilizar.html

I was also perplexed as to why Sumar were so happy with losing seats, but in a context where the "left of PSOE" parties were on a road to a cliff and being wiped out fully, it is understandable. Still, I find Diaz's campaigning a bit too much like the "Everything is Awesome" Lego Movie song. Hugs and smiles won't solve crippled political systems.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pleasently surprised the right didn't do that well, especially Fox losing votes compared to the last election.

If my reding is correct, a snap election later this year is the most likely outcome? Does Sanchez remain PM in the meantime or will a caretaker be appointed?

[kaoras]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

I believe they are only included in the 'escrutinio definitivo' between 28-31 July.

I don't know how many are expected though? There would have to be quite a few to change the outcome in any one province.

Here are the number of votes by constituency from 2019: http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

The only provinces where the number of votes needed to change the result is lower than the number of CERA ballots in 2019:
Girona, Cantabria, Tarragona, Madrid, Salamanca, Guipuzkoa, Malaga

Of those, the only one that looks like a plausible change is Madrid (which would be a PP gain from PSOE).

CERA was made easier and participation went up a lot.
Also, PP will not gain anything from PSOE in CERA because CERA is very left wing

Is there any evidence that participation has increased a lot (certainly it stands to reason given the changes, but do we have anything beyond anecdote)?

As for it being left wing, that is a generalisation. As you can see from the spreadsheet I posted, the PP+Cs vote in 2019 was 2.5k higher than that of the PSOE in the CERA vote.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/politica/elecciones-generales/voto-exterior-dispara.html

The new system debuted in the autonomic elections; in Madrid PP got 44% in CERA vs 47,3%. I may be overselling how left wing the foreign vote is, but PP would need to overperform their % vs the regular results, and that has never happened.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Pleasently surprised the right didn't do that well, especially Fox losing votes compared to the last election.

If my reding is correct, a snap election later this year is the most likely outcome? Does Sanchez remain PM in the meantime or will a caretaker be appointed?

Yes, he is acting president until a government is officially invested

[Logical]

Precinct map is out
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaciones-elecciones-generales-23j-por-calles_1_10377837.html

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

So Sanchez didn't lose, but he also didn't win. And Feijoo won, but he also lost. Don't you just love multi-party provincial D'Hondt?

[Vosem]

So Sanchez didn't lose, but he also didn't win. And Feijoo won, but he also lost. Don't you just love multi-party provincial D'Hondt?

Feijóo definitely lost in the sense that there's no way on these numbers that he can form a government (although he made large gains, which is a win of sorts in a multi-party system), while Sánchez sort of won in the sense that a path seems to exist, though it's unlikely and new elections are probably likelier than not.

(Although Feijóo came very, very close; I think the question of just how left-wing the CERA vote is pretty critical. If PP can gain just 2 seats, then a Sánchez government is probably totally foreclosed; at that point Sánchez would need Junts to explicitly vote for him, and not just strategically abstain.)

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

So Sanchez didn't lose, but he also didn't win. And Feijoo won, but he also lost. Don't you just love multi-party provincial D'Hondt?

Feijóo definitely lost in the sense that there's no way on these numbers that he can form a government (although he made large gains, which is a win of sorts in a multi-party system), while Sánchez sort of won in the sense that a path seems to exist, though it's unlikely and new elections are probably likelier than not.

(Although Feijóo came very, very close; I think the question of just how left-wing the CERA vote is pretty critical. If PP can gain just 2 seats, then a Sánchez government is probably totally foreclosed; at that point Sánchez would need Junts to explicitly vote for him, and not just strategically abstain.)

If Junts votes for PP, then Vox is voting against them. Why would Vox allow an independentista party to prop up any government? They ran on banning them.