Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Bacon King]

It seems that Feijóo will make a desperate attempt to survive, claiming the party with the most votes has the right to govern.

literally Stephen Harper

[Mike88]

Also, the PSOE's second place in this election is almost a victory. No recorded poll predicted that performance. Never understimate Perro Sánchez

1996 vibes: "Nunca una derrota fue tan dulce y nunca una victoria fue tan amarga"

[Velasco]

Also, the PSOE's second place in this election is almost a victory. No recorded poll predicted that performance. Never understimate Perro Sánchez

1996 vibes: "Nunca una derrota fue tan dulce y nunca una victoria fue tan amarga"

Not really. Aznar actually won that election, because he was able to forge deals with CiU and PNV to govern. Felipe González overperformed polls, but that election was the end of his political career.

Pedro Sánchez has more chances to survive now,  even though the result is extremely complex

[jaichind]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

But the swing against SUMAR relative to the parties that make up SUMAR relative to the 2019 Nov results are greater than the swing against VOX relative to the same election.

[Velasco]

It seems that Feijóo will make a desperate attempt to survive, claiming the party with the most votes has the right to govern.

literally Stephen Harper

It seems that Harper was once in Alberta, while the first name of Feijóo is Alberto

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems that Feijóo will make a desperate attempt to survive, claiming the party with the most votes has the right to govern.

literally Stephen Harper

Also Ted Heath!

[Velasco]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

But the swing against SUMAR relative to the parties that make up SUMAR relative to the 2019 Nov results are greater than the swing against VOX relative to the same election.

There are very few vote transfers between blocs, so it's more useful to establish comparisons within them

SUMAR lost about 3% with regards UP and MP in Nov 2019, while the PSOE gained 3.7%

[jaichind]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

But the swing against SUMAR relative to the parties that make up SUMAR relative to the 2019 Nov results are greater than the swing against VOX relative to the same election.

There are very few vote transfers between blocs, so it's more useful to establish comparisons within them

SUMAR lost about 3% with regards UP and MP in Nov 2019, while the PSOE gained 3.7%

Right.  And VOX lost around 2.7% relative to Nov 2019 so the biggest loser in this election would be SUMAR and not VOX, at least in terms of vote share.

[Mike88]

Also, the PSOE's second place in this election is almost a victory. No recorded poll predicted that performance. Never understimate Perro Sánchez

1996 vibes: "Nunca una derrota fue tan dulce y nunca una victoria fue tan amarga"

Not really. Aznar actually won that election, because he was able to forge deals with CiU and PNV to govern. Felipe González overperformed polls, but that election was the end of his political career.

Pedro Sánchez has more chances to survive now,  even though the result is extremely complex

Sure, but there are similarites: In 96, everyone expected a PP landslide and Gonzaléz was seen as weak due to his 13 years in power, and the results were a total surprise. But, there is a big difference between now and then, Spain wasn't that polarized as it is now.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Teruel right now:

[Mike88]

Results by municipality: https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2023/07/24/64bd6f47fdddffd7058b45b2.html

[Velasco]

Provincial results

Madrid

PP 40.5% 16 (+5)
PSOE 27.9% 11 (+1)
SUMAR 15.5% 6 (-1)
VOX 14.0% 5 (-2)

Barcelona

PSC-PSOE 35.7% 13 (+5)
SUMAR 15.2% 5 (=)
PP 13 8% 5 (+3)
ERC 12.3% 4 (-3)
Junts 9.7% 3 (-1)
Vox 7.6% 2 (=)
 CUP 2.5% 0 (-2)

Valencia

PP 33.7% 6 (+2)
PSOE 32.1% 5 (+1)
SUMAR 16.8% 3 (=)
Vox 15.2% 2 (-1)

Sevilla

PSOE 36.6% 5 (=)
PP 33.4% 4 (+2)
SUMAR 14 0% 2 (=)
Vox 13.3% 1 (-1)

Notice that PSOE wins 7 seats in the 4 largest constituencies ( 5 in Barcelona), while Sumar manages to save furniture. PSOE net gains in terms of seats amount just 2. PP's first place in most provinces means gains from the PSOE in some smaller constituencies

[Mike88]

In Madrid, PP won 15 seats. They failed to win the 16th by 1,738 votes.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It seems that Feijóo will make a desperate attempt to survive, claiming the party with the most votes has the right to govern.

literally Stephen Harper

Also Ted Heath!

Also Tony Abbott circa 2010

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which Cortes Generales constituencies are the best bellwethers?

[Mike88]

Portuguese media is basically unanimous that Spain has entered in a "political stalemate", but that Sanchéz can "surprise" once again.

[Mike88]

Which Cortes Generales constituencies are the best bellwethers?

I know that Aragón is known as "Spain's Ohio", and that has voted with the winner in every single election in democracy. Not sure about other constituencies.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

But the swing against SUMAR relative to the parties that make up SUMAR relative to the 2019 Nov results are greater than the swing against VOX relative to the same election.

There are very few vote transfers between blocs, so it's more useful to establish comparisons within them

SUMAR lost about 3% with regards UP and MP in Nov 2019, while the PSOE gained 3.7%

Right.  And VOX lost around 2.7% relative to Nov 2019 so the biggest loser in this election would be SUMAR and not VOX, at least in terms of vote share.

The biggest loser IMO was C's, but we don't need to rehash previously discussed obvious failures.

[Mike88]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

But the swing against SUMAR relative to the parties that make up SUMAR relative to the 2019 Nov results are greater than the swing against VOX relative to the same election.

There are very few vote transfers between blocs, so it's more useful to establish comparisons within them

SUMAR lost about 3% with regards UP and MP in Nov 2019, while the PSOE gained 3.7%

Right.  And VOX lost around 2.7% relative to Nov 2019 so the biggest loser in this election would be SUMAR and not VOX, at least in terms of vote share.

The biggest loser IMO was C's, but we don't need to rehash previously discussed obvious failures.

What about Macarena Olona? Her "paint-style logo party" won a spectacular... 5,482 votes.

[Helsinkian]

Found an interesting result: Sant Jaume de Frontanyà, in Barcelona province. Vox wins 55 percent of the votes, up from 0 percent last time.

Of course, in this municipality 55 percent means 6 votes. Still interesting, considering that Wikipedia reports that the municipality held a local referendum in favour of Catalan independence in 2009; I guess they have swung against it now.

[Mike88]

100.00% of precincts counted:

33.1% PP, 136 (+47)
31.7% PSOE, 122 (+2)
12.4% Vox, 33 (-19)
12.3% Sumar, 31 (-7)
  1.9% ERC, 7 (-6)
  1.6% Junts, 7 (-1)
  1.4% Bildu, 6 (+1)
  1.1% PNV, 5 (-1)
  0.6% BNG, 1 (nc)
  0.5% CC, 1 (nc)
  0.2% UPN, 1 (nc)
  3.2% Others
 
70.4% Turnout (+0.5)

[Velasco]

Which Cortes Generales constituencies are the best bellwethers?

I know that Aragón is known as "Spain's Ohio", and that has voted with the winner in every single election in democracy. Not sure about other constituencies.

Aragon switched clearly to the right in these elections, to the point that PP-VOX amount more than 50%. The PP won seats in Zaragoza and Huesca at the expense of the PSOE, as well as another seat at the expense of Teruel Existe

The Valencian Community was a PP stronghold for more than two decades until 2015. Since then it's considered a bellwether region in general elections. There's advantage for the right in these elections, but the left resists better (PSOE +1, Sumar -1)

There's a problem with our province-based system, for rural and conservative provinces of the 'Emptied Spain ' are overrepresented with regards the most populous. The electoral system was designed to favour UCD in 1977. I think the representativity problem could be solved adding some levelling seats, as it happens in Sweden. The constitución allows 400 deputies in Congress

[DL]

100.00% of precincts counted:

33.1% PP, 136 (+47)
31.7% PSOE, 122 (+2)
12.4% Vox, 33 (-19)
12.3% Sumar, 31 (-7)
  1.9% ERC, 7 (-6)
  1.6% Junts, 7 (-1)
  1.4% Bildu, 6 (+1)
  1.1% PNV, 5 (-1)
  0.6% BNG, 1 (nc)
  0.5% CC, 1 (nc)
  0.2% UPN, 1 (nc)
  3.2% Others
 
70.4% Turnout (+0.5)

How is that parties gained 50 seats but losses only equal 35? Where did the other 15 come from?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Which Cortes Generales constituencies are the best bellwethers?

I know that Aragón is known as "Spain's Ohio", and that has voted with the winner in every single election in democracy. Not sure about other constituencies.

Aragon switched clearly to the right in these elections, to the point that PP-VOX amount more than 50%. The PP won seats in Zaragoza and Huesca at the expense of the PSOE, as well as another seat at the expense of Teruel Existe

Well just like Ohio in our timeline also is no longer a bellwether. So it definitely is Spain's Ohio.

[MaxQue]

100.00% of precincts counted:

33.1% PP, 136 (+47)
31.7% PSOE, 122 (+2)
12.4% Vox, 33 (-19)
12.3% Sumar, 31 (-7)
  1.9% ERC, 7 (-6)
  1.6% Junts, 7 (-1)
  1.4% Bildu, 6 (+1)
  1.1% PNV, 5 (-1)
  0.6% BNG, 1 (nc)
  0.5% CC, 1 (nc)
  0.2% UPN, 1 (nc)
  3.2% Others
 
70.4% Turnout (+0.5)

How is that parties gained 50 seats but losses only equal 35? Where did the other 15 come from?

Citizens who got more than 10 seats last time didn't run. Teruel Existe lost their seat.