Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Zinneke]

Remember folks: whenever the right is popular, it's because of media bias and astroturf campaigns targeted at uppity ignoramuses.

I can put it in simpler words and with crayons if it helps you

[LAKISYLVANIA]

European politics nowadays is very depressive. Especially Southern Europe.

[Bacon King]

Moreover, these elections became boring with the end of the grain deal. Spain was the biggest parasite of the "Grain deal for poor countries (lmao)" and with it they avoided the inflation levels of other European countries, now that it has collapsed, the fake system they created is going to collapse and it will hurt much more than in other European countries

there's so much wrong here i don't even know where to start

1. the point of the Black Sea grain deal was never about delivering that same grain directly to low income countries - that's not at all how global markets work. After making it through the corridor, Ukrainian grain was getting sold at basically the same ports where it was shipped before the war. This makes grain cheaper for people in low-income countries because the increase in global supply causes a decrease in global price.

2. You do realize the grain was still sold at full market value, right? Just because Spain is one of the largest direct buyers of Ukrainian grain, it doesn't make them "parasites" which is kind of an absurd word to throw around. They didn't benefit any more than the rest of the world from the reduced prices

3. Numbers for you btw from 2022: 19% of Spanish grain imports are from Ukraine. 18% of Ukrainian exports are to Spain. It's really not like Spain is monolithically gobbling it up, either: Ukraine exports a bigger share to China.

4. Spain has so many imports right now only because it's seen two years of serious droughts in its own grain-producing regions - it's not like they are historically reliant on huge volumes of grain from Ukraine or anywhere else; this is not a long-term problem.

5. Recognizing the likely risk of importing grain from a warzone, Spain has been reducing its grain imports from Ukraine since shortly after the war began, buying more from Latin America instead

6. Loss of reliable access to Ukrainian grain won't hurt Spain's inflation any more than it will the rest of Europe. Like I said above: it's a global market, remember? Grain prices are going up everywhere.

7. Lastly, and most importantly: the low Spanish inflation rate is almost entirely thanks to the "Iberian exception" exempting them from certain EU energy market rules which was recently renewed thru the end of the year. Spain's inflation rate isn't going anywhere in the short term

[Velasco]

Additionally the main factor playing in the Spain's low inflation rates are energy prices, for Spain and Portugal have been allowed to regulate them due to their relative disconnection from the European grid. Feijóo has promised to revoke the 'Iberian Exception'. It could be contended that would be the dumbest of decisions, motivated by the Spanish right's obsession in revoking "sanchismo " (it wouldn't be the first case of politicians believing their own propaganda). However, I am afraid there's a (not so hidden) neoliberal agenda that will be implemented in case of a,PP-VOX victory. The Spanish Right is not far from Liz Truss.

Last night I heard a radio interview with former PM Zapatero and I think the man is more  clever than many people believe. Zapatero says the real problem is the PP and not Vox. The far-right party is only an instrument to wage cultural wars and make the PP appear moderate (see the huge success with Juanma Moreno in Andalusia). The PP is actually a rather uncivilized right-wing party with connections to some elements within the US Republican Party

[CumbrianLefty]

European politics nowadays is very depressive. Especially Southern Europe.

Just in Europe?

And it has the same underlying cause really - much of the right becoming a "post truth" movement.

[Velasco]

Latest GESOP tracking poll, from The Adelaide Review

PP 32.0% 130/134 seats
PSOE 29 0% 109/114 seats
SUMAR 14.0% 36/40 seats
VOX 13.0% 36/40 seats
ERC 2 0% 8/9 seats
JUNTS 1.8% 7/8 seats

Graphs of historical results by province and municipality

https://twitter.com/eldiarioes/status/1682747322177044481?t=CsdpAqlZS1c_wRYSdVsg...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

European politics nowadays is very depressive. Especially Southern Europe.

Just in Europe?

And it has the same underlying cause really - much of the right becoming a "post truth" movement.

Yes it's a worldwide trend, but in a lot of places it was never great.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1682475954621538306?s=20

They’re only missing one

[Red Velvet]

Does Pauline Hanson even have power or global recognition? One nation has 0 seats.

[Mike88]

And election day has arrived:

- Number of registered voters: 37,469,142;

- Polling stations: 22,562 polling stations with 60,314 precincts;

- Polls open at 9am and close at 8pm (Polls will stay open one more hour in the Canary Islands due to the time difference);

- There will be turnout updates at 2pm and 6pm;

- 64 parties/coalitions running for the Congress of Deputies and 30 parties/coalitions for the Senate;

- At 8pm, TV networks will reveal traking polls, not exit polls, that include interviews made during election day: GAD3 for Mediaset (Antena3) and Sigma Dos for RTVE and the regional tv channels. The GAD3 poll has around 10,000 responses, while Sigma Dos 17,000;

- Election results website: https://resultados.generales23j.es/es/espera (let's hope it doesn't crash during the count)

[Bacon King]

election night question for the locals and other subject matter experts: do Spanish elections have any general patterns or trends for when certain votes are reported?

e.g. do you expect early returns to disproportionately favor certain parties? do some regions consistently count their votes more quickly?

[Harlow]

Does Pauline Hanson even have power or global recognition? One nation has 0 seats.

They have two seats in the senate.

[MRCVzla]

election night question for the locals and other subject matter experts: do Spanish elections have any general patterns or trends for when certain votes are reported?

e.g. do you expect early returns to disproportionately favor certain parties? do some regions consistently count their votes more quickly?

From the experience of watching Spanish election coverages, in the first phase of the count (around 21:00 CET) always the first reported votes are from low population towns (the "España vaciada" area in the north/Castillas), so it will probably "favor" the PP/PSOE and certain strong regional parties (mostly the basque parties, then the catalan indys), the count usually progresses in correlation with the population (Sumar/Vox seats will increase and then adjust ), in the end when the general count between in-person vote and the by-mail vote (*) reaches almost 100% at midnight, the polling stations missing from the count are mostly from big cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia...), I think the seat count would "stabilize" around 60-70% of the count after 22:00 CET

(*) Votes from residents abroad will be counted during the week, so turnout figure in election night will be different where the final results will be released.

To add/correct Mike: Mediaset and Antena 3 are different things (rivals actually), Antena 3' owner Atresmedia anyway would expect to release their own tracking poll from NC Report/La Razón at 20h as well SocioMétrica from El Español or also a final tracking from GESOP now published properly in the Prensa Ibérica sites instead of The Adelaide Review (owned by the President of Prensa Ibérica, the reason of why this extinct culture magazine published the "banned" polls)

Today's fight will be mostly in the tiny/median provinces were the final seat is disputed in order to give/shown a more disputed race in seats in the different "fronts", mostly between PP/PSOE and Vox/Sumar but even in the regional "nationalists" like in Catalonia and Basque Country/Navarre who also comes to election day very disputed, PP likely may win, but for PSOE should consider a victory if PP+Vox and likely allies doesn't get over 175 seats (giving them extra time).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How soon does vote counting start?

[Bacon King]

How soon does vote counting start?

the first phase of the count (around 21:00 CET)

[Logical]

Predictions time

PP              133 - 33%
PSOE         110 - 29%
SUMAR        37 - 14%
VOX              36 - 13%
ERC                 8
JUNTS            8
EH                   6
PNV                5
BNG                2
CC                   2
CUP                 1
EV                    1
UPN                 1

[PetrSokol]

What is EV, pls?

Predictions time

PP              133 - 33%
PSOE         110 - 29%
SUMAR        37 - 14%
VOX              36 - 13%
ERC                 8
JUNTS            8
EH                   6
PNV                5
BNG                2
CC                   2
CUP                 1
EV                    1
UPN                 1

[Logical]

What is EV, pls?

Empty Spain. Rural protest movement that grew out from Teruel Existe's success in the November 2019 election. They are running in several small provinces but it looks like will only win a seat in Teruel, although there is an outside chance they could snatch a seat in Soria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Spain

[Mike88]

The only incident marking election day is a fire at a AVE train tunnel that forced the shutdown of trains between Valencia and Madrid. Passengers are piling up in Valencia's AVE station and many are furious for the lack of info and point that they may not be able to cast a ballot on time. The Government of Valencia says that they are doing everything in their power to solve the situation and make sure that people affected can cast a ballot at their respective polling stations.

[Mike88]

2pm turnout update:

2023: 40.48% (+2.56%)
2019N: 37.92%
2019A: 41.49%
2016: 36.86%
2015: 37.01%
2011: 37.88%

Turnout is down in Catalonia, the Basque Country and Melilla. In Madrid it's basically stagnated, -0.16%. Extremadura and Galicia have the highest growth, so far, in turnout, 7.99% and 7.05% respectively.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Heading to bed now. Expecting a de-facto PSOE victory, but we'll see when the votes get counted.

[VPH]

What is EV, pls?

Empty Spain. Rural protest movement that grew out from Teruel Existe's success in the November 2019 election. They are running in several small provinces but it looks like will only win a seat in Teruel, although there is an outside chance they could snatch a seat in Soria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Spain

Hopefully they win that second seat!

[Battista Minola 1616]

I've seen the turnout patterns interpreted as a sign of wide abstention in the major independentist camps, which would make sense. It would be extremely funny if this were to be counteracted by a surge for the BNG, but I imagine the particularly higher turnout in Galicia is more likely a Feijóo "favourite son" effect.

[crals]

The turnout patterns in Galicia, Catalonia and the Basque Country are good news for the right-wing camp, I suppose. What about Extremadura?

[Velasco]

I'm going to the polling station in order to cast a vote for Perro Sánchez. Probably I'll go out later and try to keep calm and get prepared for tonight's results