Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Zinneke]

There's nothing hyperbolic, Vox is unironically one of the most dangerous far right parties, you have entire stadiums making monkey chants to a black player, you have the Catalan issue still potentially a tinderbox where you could see serious riots and civil disobedience if the autonomies are suspended.

This isn't a Meloni style scenario where people have just defaulted into voting for her having tried everybody else, and where she specifically looks to tackle the singular issue of the migration across the Med, this is a party and an entire spectrum wipping up Spanish society into a flag-infested frenzy that could see basic rights such as due process disapear. A post-Francoist corruption vehicle and criminal protection site allying with a party that genuinely wants to import the South American racial and class segregation model with more classical neofascistic characistics to Spain...that should be enough to mobilise people!

[Mike88]

Ayuso lost one seat after the overseas ballots were counted. Vox wins that seat from her.

Also, Macarena Olona revealed the name and logo of her party type thing, and it's... well... you decide:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1664610614264619010

Walking together, Macarena Olona's new party, already has a graphic identity.

Playing with Red and Blue, the logo forms a kind of Elephant.

Calls for a referendum between Monarchy and Republic.

[BigSerg]

Zinneke is completely unaware of the reality in Spain. Vox is nowhere near as extremist as he claims, in fact, it is at the lower end of most European "far right" parties.

[PSOL]

I’m most likely abstaining from the vote or voting for a smaller party just to f over spanish libs in the PR vote. I am not voting for the tripartite part of Spanish Pasokis: Sanchez-Iglesias-Diaz

[Skye]

Checking precincts results, my neighborhood gave the right 81% of the vote, with 70% going to Ayuso alone.

[Velasco]

...that should be enough to mobilise people!

Vox is indeed extremely dangerous and toxic, but the far-right presence in the political scene is fully normlized at this point. Normalization comes not only from the willingness of PP and Cs to cooperate, but also from the mainstream conservative-oriented media. They gave legitimacy and respectability to a party with racist, homophobic, male chauvinist and ultranationalist stances.

The threat of involution that Vox represents is not going to mobilize people. Pablo Iglesias already called the "anti-fascist alert" after the 2018 Andalusian elections and that proved to be totally ineffective.

The threat is real and we must talk about its existence, but it'd be a huge mistake on the part of its adversaries resorting to fear and negative campaigning. Rather, progressive forces need to tell to the people that they have a project  for the future and a vision of a better country. The progressive coalition government has managed well the  economy and put forward a lot of legislation and measures that have a general approval. They need to tell to the people what's the continuation of the progressive policies already implemented. They need to confront their vision of future to the lo the lack of projects coming from the other side. The right is devoid of vision and only talks about the past, to the point that some of its representatives pretend that ETA still exists.

Here you have some campaign strategy proposals

https://www.infobae.com/espana/2023/06/01/la-receta-de-la-izquierda-para-las-elecciones-dejar-a-un-lado-el-miedo-a-vox-hablar-de-futuro-y-no-agitar-el-avispero-de-la-derecha/

[Velasco]

Alberto Garzón,  IU leader and acting minister of Consumption Affairs,  announces that he takes a step aside and won't be a candidate in the upcoming general elections.  Garzón will continue being the coordinator general of IU and will give full support to Yolanda Díaz and Sumar.  Likewise Ada Colau announced that she stays in Barcelona and won't be a candidate. Analysts point these moves exert pressure on Podemos national leadership engaged in negotiations with Yolanda Díaz. Figures like Irene Montero,  Ione Belarra and Pablo Echenique are comoletely burned out

https://twitter.com/agarzon/status/1664517418947866625?t=8m5dn7NNal556gCGyJCSEQ&...

[Octowakandi]

How political is the Spanish military out of curiosity?

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1664988244822355968?t=FwR-X_oSwm-6HIXWF...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1663785750490480640?t=aRo8plp4ee4FRbYKh...

[Zinneke]

How political is the Spanish military out of curiosity?

My anectedotal 2cents is that when I lived there I had a mate who was in the military and he was a PSOE member with the more conservative characteristics you would expect (and the types maybe PSOE have lost). Anyway, in his view, Spain's upper echelons of the military are not politicised and take civil-military relations seriously because of the Transition period and the fact that multiple governments (mostly PSOE) have appointed serious people that could be considered "military skeptics" as defence ministers. That being said, there are branches that he considered right-wing overtly, and then there is the Guardia Civil which was technically MoD but under orders from Interior. You also have culture of machismo banter that would make Americans balk but you probably have that everywhere.

The intelligence services for me are the ones that are inherently politicised, but in a rather laughably amateuresque way : which serious intelligence service goes around spying on the King's mistress to see what she is up to because he's a bit jealous/afraid of the court case? And then of course there is the Pegasus scandal and I don't think it's a coincidence that Spain and Greece, two former dictatorships with stay-behind networks from that era still populating the intelligence services, are the countries actively spying on their opposition figures, including in Spain ¡s case, someone spying on Sanchez himself!

Interested to hear what the Spanish posters think though.

[Former President tack50]

How political is the Spanish military out of curiosity?

Not very in the sense that talking about the military itself isn't really a campaign issue for the most part, and probably hasn't been since at least the Irak war?

The military itself heavily leans conservative though, this is a secret said outloud basically.

There was a bit of a scandal in 2020 about some leaked group chat of retired generals claiming that the military should kill the "23 million reds" or something along those lines; can't remember the details. for what is worth

[Former President tack50]

How political is the Spanish military out of curiosity?

My anectedotal 2cents is that when I lived there I had a mate who was in the military and he was a PSOE member with the more conservative characteristics you would expect (and the types maybe PSOE have lost). Anyway, in his view, Spain's upper echelons of the military are not politicised and take civil-military relations seriously because of the Transition period and the fact that multiple governments (mostly PSOE) have appointed serious people that could be considered "military skeptics" as defence ministers. That being said, there are branches that he considered right-wing overtly, and then there is the Guardia Civil which was technically MoD but under orders from Interior. You also have culture of machismo banter that would make Americans balk but you probably have that everywhere.

The intelligence services for me are the ones that are inherently politicised, but in a rather laughably amateuresque way : which serious intelligence service goes around spying on the King's mistress to see what she is up to because he's a bit jealous/afraid of the court case? And then of course there is the Pegasus scandal and I don't think it's a coincidence that Spain and Greece, two former dictatorships with stay-behind networks from that era still populating the intelligence services, are the countries actively spying on their opposition figures, including in Spain ¡s case, someone spying on Sanchez himself!

Interested to hear what the Spanish posters think though.

This sounds mostly correct. I would really only add that the process you mention regarding the upper echelons of the military wasn't really instant but rather happened gradually during Gonzalez's term in office (and probably the UCD ones too).

PSOE indeed also has usually appointed quite serious people as defence minister and indeed there are branches that are probably considered more right wing than others (the Legión comes to mind most notably).

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Faced With Electoral Wipeout, Spain’s Left Has to Unite

I feel like this article makes some fairly decent arguments. I know a lot of people disagreed /w me when it came to a similar take on the Greek elections thread but I've always been a proponent of 'United Fronts' and 'Multi-Tendency' movements.

[warandwar]

Faced With Electoral Wipeout, Spain’s Left Has to Unite

I feel like this article makes some fairly decent arguments. I know a lot of people disagreed /w me when it came to a similar take on the Greek elections thread but I've always been a proponent of 'United Fronts' and 'Multi-Tendency' movements.

The main thing uniting broad currents of the Spanish left is hatred of Pablo Iglesias right now. Not sure that'll produce lasting unity.

[CelestialAlchemy]

I feel like this article makes some fairly decent arguments. I know a lot of people disagreed /w me when it came to a similar take on the Greek elections thread but I've always been a proponent of 'United Fronts' and 'Multi-Tendency' movements.

The main thing uniting broad currents of the Spanish left is hatred of Pablo Iglesias right now. Not sure that'll produce lasting unity.

Why do they hate him?

[Velasco]

The main battle in the negotiations against the clock to conform Sumar lists is around the inclusion of Podemos,  which leadership is unhappy with the places offered to the diminishing purple party.

Unity is a prerequisite to have chances in the upcoming general elections. A 40 dB poll released today by El País suggests that the right is going to win, but a Sumar+Podemos list could prevent a PP-VOX majority. There is a trend to concentrate vote in the two major parties,  on the other hand

https://twitter.com/el_pais/status/1665604730532315137?t=X23hSQ_wQpIP3ePK92B4QQ&...

[mileslunn]

Don't follow Spanish politics as closely as some do, but my guess is Sanchez probably figured odds of winning were very low so better to go early before PP and Vox had time to plan everything and catch them off guard.  Likely won't save him from defeat though.  This year in Europe has definitely been good for right gaining Finland, likely majority in Greece, and probably soon Spain as well as Sweden last fall.  Actually seems left outside English speaking countries doing horrible in Europe with UK & Ireland only two seem to be looking good.

[jaichind]

Any news on if Sumar and Podemos will run on the same list or separately?  Don't they have to decide this week?

[icc]

Any news on if Sumar and Podemos will run on the same list or separately?  Don't they have to decide this week?

Not yet. The deadline is Friday, though if an agreement is reached they have a little longer to put the actual lists together.

[oldtimer]

I feel like this article makes some fairly decent arguments. I know a lot of people disagreed /w me when it came to a similar take on the Greek elections thread but I've always been a proponent of 'United Fronts' and 'Multi-Tendency' movements.

The main thing uniting broad currents of the Spanish left is hatred of Pablo Iglesias right now. Not sure that'll produce lasting unity.

Why do they hate him?

Probably another version of Tsipras.

A leftist who looks like he sold out, example:

https://www.politico.eu/article/pablo-iglesias-irene-montero-podemos-leaders-face-party-vote-over-luxury-villa/

[Zinneke]

A guy who won't admit and let go of his little project, because he believes he and his inner circle built it therefore should run it. That is the main reason.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why do they hate him?

This is one of those rare situations where the answer genuinely is 'because he's an appalling excuse for a human being'. A complete nightmare to work or have anything else to do with and the electorate hate him as well.

[Velasco]

I feel like this article makes some fairly decent arguments. I know a lot of people disagreed /w me when it came to a similar take on the Greek elections thread but I've always been a proponent of 'United Fronts' and 'Multi-Tendency' movements.

The main thing uniting broad currents of the Spanish left is hatred of Pablo Iglesias right now. Not sure that'll produce lasting unity.

Why do they hate him?

Probably another version of Tsipras.

A leftist who looks like he sold out, example:

https://www.politico.eu/article/pablo-iglesias-irene-montero-podemos-leaders-face-party-vote-over-luxury-villa/

That's not the reason. Pablo Iglesias is not like Alexis Tsipras.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this moment, but shocking because Pablo Igledias and Irene Montero bought* a detached home (not a "luxury villa") with their money is extremely hypocritical. Leftists should not be required to live like franciscan monks. Another question is criticizing the demagoguery of Iglesias, who previously said that he wouldn't leave his apartment in Vallecas. Iglesias and Montero decided to move outside Madrid and buy a home, in order to raise their family. They had the money earned from their professional activities. What’s wrong with that?

I'd say some people in the left dislike Iglesias for reasons like infighting, purges, personal arrogance, appearances in media and a large etcetera. In spite of that, I think almost everybody in the left acknowledges the key role of Pablo Iglesias in the last decade. Like them or not, Pablo Iglesias and Podemos have changed Spanish politics

* To be precise, I think they are paying a mortage

[Velasco]

A guy who won't admit and let go of his little project, because he believes he and his inner circle built it therefore should run it. That is the main reason.

Pablo Iglesias' inner circle nowadays is not comprised by the Podemos founding members. As far as I recall, the only one remaining with him is Juan Carlos Monedero