Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

[BigSerg]

Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Murcia, 2019 general election
PP+Vox = 55%
Psoe + Up = 35%
Cs = 7,5 %




https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/15/

[Velasco]

Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Murcia, 2019 general election
PP+Vox = 55%
Psoe + Up = 35%
Cs = 7,5 %




https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/15/

Murcian regional election, 2019

PSOE 32.5% 17 seats
PP 32.4% 16 seats
Cs 12.0% 6 seats
Vox 9.5% 4 seats
Podemos 5.6% 2 seats

The next regional election is in 2023

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Murcian_regional_election

[Oryxslayer]

Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Murcia, 2019 general election
PP+Vox = 55%
Psoe + Up = 35%
Cs = 7,5 %




https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/15/

Murcian regional election, 2019

PSOE 32.5% 17 seats
PP 32.4% 16 seats
Cs 12.0% 6 seats
Vox 9.5% 4 seats
Podemos 5.6% 2 seats

The next regional election is in 2023

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Murcian_regional_election

It was understood when this all began that Murcia is arguably the best province for the Conservative parties, and that this emerging government is not exactly built to last. No need to restate the obvious.

[Velasco]

Laura Borràs, the JxCAT candidate in the elections held on February 14, has been elected Speaker of the Catalan Parliament. Mistrust between the main pro-independence parties persists, but it's apparent that pragmatism will prevail as all signals point to a repetition of the coalition formula. ERC began seeking the support of ECP and the CUP (the "broad pathway"), but the former reject deals with JxCAT and the importance of the CUP in negotiations has been diminished. Pro-independence parties have agreed with PSC and ECP to block the access of Vox to the governing bodies of the parliament. Initially the CUP was sighting the post of Speaker, but it will have to conform to have representation in the Board of the Catalan Parliament. The election of Borràs implies the support of JxCAT to the investiture of the ERC candidate Pere Aragonès. The CUP grassroot assemblies are contraries to join the government, rather they prefer to be influential from the outside. ERC seeks the ECP support to self-determination and amnesty for the jailed politicians.

Pablo Casado sees the opportunity to decimate Vox and Cs, reports La Vanguardia. PP national leadership believes calling snap elections in Madrid is a risky decision, but also a golden opportunity to strengthen the  grip on its main stronghold, as well as a shortcut towards the reunification of the Spanish Right. Isabel Díaz Ayuso is very popular among the Vox base and PP folks believe she's the only one able to catch Vox and Cs voters together. However, others think that Ayuso is pursuing her own agenda and that her move ties the fate of the PP to Vox.

Meanwhile the PSOE is in search of a candidate and Toni Cantó wants to lead the rebellion against Cs leader Inés Arrimadas from Valencia. It's not a secret that Cs is in serious peril and  elDiario.es entitles that Pablo Casado is launching the final hostile bid against the last orange remainders

[Skye]

There's a Demoscopia poll for ESdiario.

https://twitter.com/ESdiario_com/status/1370278385272811522
Worth noting that both Cs and Podemos are dangerously close to being left out of the Assembly (there's a 5% threshold) and that could change the outcome since in this poll PP+VOX still don't get an absolute majority of seats.

[Former President tack50]

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Yeah, back in the 1980s for some reason CDS had its 2 main strongholds in the Canary Islands and Castille-Leon (certainly a very odd combination). In the latter its voters eventually just went to PP, but in the former instead they were part of what created CC, the party that would stay in power from 1993 all the way to 2019

Even more impressively, the Canaries were also the biggest UCD stronghold in the 1970s, to the point of sweeping 3/3 Senate seats in Gran Canaria, something no other party has even attempted. They also won all municipalities in '77 and all but 1 in '79.

Though to be fair I would not count this Cs rule in the same category as CDS in the Canaries. CDS did genuinely manage to get 2nd place in the 1987 regional election* and leading a genuinely coherent CDS-AIC-AP-AHI coalition government. Meanwhile Cs was the 3rd largest party in Murcia in 2019, and is being propped up by the 1st largest party (this situation also happened in Cantabria in 2003, with 2nd placed PSOE propping up Revilla).

<sub>*: In terms of seats. Thanks to the amazing electoral system in the islands, AIC was 2nd in the popular vote but got less seats than CDS. AIC was incredibly strong in Tenerife island (42%) but incredibly weak in Gran Canaria (1.6%) and also relatively weak in all the minor islands outside La Palma.

Meanwhile CDS was very evenly spread out, beating AIC in most of the minor islands and having its weak spot in underrepresented Tenerife.</sub>

[Former President tack50]

Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Murcia, 2019 general election
PP+Vox = 55%
Psoe + Up = 35%
Cs = 7,5 %

Yes, barring a left wing landslide nationally or something very weird happening in 2023, this is a 2 year rental. No need to state the obvious, this government is DoA come 2023 and only question is whether Murcia will get a PP or a Vox premier but it is too far to say anything with certainty.

Murcia is the most conservative region of Spain and there doesn't seem to be any local factor that could lead to an odd result (like say GIL was in equally conservative Ceuta in 1999)

[Mike88]

So, it seems that the thing that started all of this, the Murcia no confidence vote, is likely to fail after all. At least that's what the PP is saying, that they have 3 C's Murcia MPs that will vote against.

Also, a national poll by Simple Lógica has Vox surpassing PP and becoming the 2nd largest party:

27.1% PSOE
18.5% Vox
17.5% PP
11.0% UP
  7.6% C's

[kaoras]

PP doesn't even try to hide their new Tamayazo. Totally shameless, Maduro would be proud. But is LA IZQUIERDA SOCIAL COMUNISTA that is going to turn Spain into Venezuela.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

PP doesn't even try to hide their new Tamayazo. Totally shameless, Maduro would be proud. But is LA IZQUIERDA SOCIAL COMUNISTA that is going to turn Spain into Venezuela.

My first thought when i read "new Tamayazo" was: "Is that a japanese car?", and was really confused until i googled it. We also have a term for that, "borocotización", also derived from a famous tránsfuga.

[Former President tack50]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

[Mike88]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

What a total trainwreck this is becoming. These 3 MPs are now independent, right? Or are they still Vox party members?

[Former President tack50]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

What a total trainwreck this is becoming. These 3 MPs are now independent, right? Or are they still Vox party members?

Yeah, pretty sure they are basically independents. They certainly have nowhere to go inside Vox so I could see them being tempted with some good old corruption

[Mike88]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

What a total trainwreck this is becoming. These 3 MPs are now independent, right? Or are they still Vox party members?

Yeah, pretty sure they are basically independents. They certainly have nowhere to go inside Vox so I could see them being tempted with some good old corruption

Yes, normally when MPs are expelled from party caucuses, they are also expelled from the party itself. Curious they are willing to bring down the PP regional government and help prop up a C's-PSOE deal. But, honestly, right now C's is just doing the longest suicidal scene in history.

[Skye]

A new Madrid poll from Metroscopia. I know the other polls we've gotten since Ayuso called for elections aren't exactly quality polls, but this is still an outlier since it has Ayuso basically winning in a landslide.

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1370410924427853830

[Mike88]

A new Madrid poll from Metroscopia. I know the other polls we've gotten since Ayuso called for elections aren't exactly quality polls, but this is still an outlier since it has Ayuso basically winning in a landslide.

Plus, this poll is giving zero seats to C's. The only that had the same result was Electomania, but they aren't a "real" polling company. The others still gave C's some seats.

[Former President tack50]

Ironically the Metroscopia poll would be along the lines of what I'd predict in a vacuum. A total and complete Cs collapse, flawless beautiful Ayuso landslide and everyone else roughly stable.

I do think UP will improve compared to 2019 though; there is no way they can go much lower. If anything I'd expect MM to be the one going slightly down on the Madrid left.

[Former President tack50]

This went under the radar by the way, but we also have now a Simple Lógica national poll which is the first (and only one so far) to predict Vox beating PP. Needless to say after what happened yesterday and today this poll is worthless (reminds me a bit of a brief poll which had PSOE 4th right before the Sanchez led no confidence vote)



Evolution of the vote




Approval ratings (this is the only pollster to ask a US style "Approve or disapprove?" question as opposed to "Rate this politician 0-10")

[Mike88]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Well, that attempt also failed:

The three critical MPs of Vox in Murcia will support López Miras and vote against the motion.

[Former President tack50]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Well, that attempt also failed:

The three critical MPs of Vox in Murcia will support López Miras and vote against the motion.

I guess that would have been too crazy even for Spanish politics

[Velasco]

I wouldn't call Simple Lógica a quality pollster, tbh. As for the Metroscopia poll, it might be an outlier. But sadly I think a Sarah Palin, sorry, an Ayuso landslide is feasible. Low turnout in Madrid would affect low income áreas to a greater extent, as it happened in Catalonia. That's not good news for the left in general

The last movements in Murcia confirm the hostile bid of the PP and point to the final collapse of Cs. The mention to the "Tamayazo" is not out of place; the PP in Murcia is quite corrupt. Remember that Cs was allegedly a centrist party and that originally styled itself as the champion against corruption.  Joining coalitions with the PP in Madrid, Castilla y León and Murcia is in open contradiction with the latter, because all the PP regional chapters were involved in corruption schemes. Being consequent with centrist ideology and anti-corruption stance would have required joining coalitions with the PSOE. The case of Andalusia is different, because the PSOE was governing there for decades and there is the ERE scandal. The Cs "democratic regeneration" principle implies joining the PP in Andalusia but, on the other hand, the arithmetics make Vox indispensable there and normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right. Spanish 'liberals' are different, everybody knows.  In short: the Cs collapse is fully deserved, but the further radicalization of the right paints a gloomy future for the country. I will never forget the ambition of Albert Rivera triggered this turn into the sbyss

[kaoras]

The original PP-Cs pact in Murcia was particularly stupid to begin with because PSOE was the largest party in seats and votes and PSOE-Cs have a majority on their own, they didn't even need Podemos. I don't know how they justified it originally.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The original PP-Cs pact in Murcia was particularly stupid to begin with because PSOE was the largest party in seats and votes and PSOE-Cs have a majority on their own, they didn't even need Podemos. I don't know how they justified it originally.

At the time, C’s sided at practically every chance with the right because Rivera was obsessed with surpassing the PP after coming within 9 seats of actually achieving it in the April general election. Nevertheless, they maintained their centrist anti-bloc politics rhetoric (while effectively practicing bloc politics).

They justified this contradiction by saying that the PSOE wasn’t your parents’ moderate, constitutionalist PSOE, it was a radical “Sánchist” party in bed with the Catalan separatists. They demanded from regional PSOE branches a complete repudiation of Pedro Sánchez in order to negotiate anything with them, which of course was an impossible condition. Their inevitable refusal gave C’s an excuse to ally with the PP and Vox.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).