Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

On a separate note, I saw a funny Obama copycat poster saying "Yes We Bal". Not really a bad candidate, but this election is not for people who is "neither fascist nor antifascist"

Nice to see the guys behind Alejandro Fernandez's campaign for the Catalan PP to get a job at Cs

Also, I am very disappointed to see Joaquín Leguina (first and only PSOE premier of Madrid) to be endorsing Ayuso, though I think he's moved to the right by a lot over the past few years. For some reason many people from the Felipe González era have moved quite a bit to the right

[Zinneke]

On a separate note, I saw a funny Obama copycat poster saying "Yes We Bal". Not really a bad candidate, but this election is not for people who is "neither fascist nor antifascist"

Nice to see the guys behind Alejandro Fernandez's campaign for the Catalan PP to get a job at Cs

Also, I am very disappointed to see Joaquín Leguina (first and only PSOE premier of Madrid) to be endorsing Ayuso, though I think he's moved to the right by a lot over the past few years. For some reason many people from the Felipe González era have moved quite a bit to the right

You are surprised the same party that ordered the financing of GAL has right-wing figures embedded in it after it was the main opposition underground institution during the dictatorship and set up to be the party of government? I mean, I have no doubt of most PSOE high ranking figures social democratic credentials but let's not flatter some of the heavyweights that joined out of opportunism/entryism either.

(yes, yes you can point out the tinfoil hat)

[Former President tack50]

On a separate note, I saw a funny Obama copycat poster saying "Yes We Bal". Not really a bad candidate, but this election is not for people who is "neither fascist nor antifascist"

Nice to see the guys behind Alejandro Fernandez's campaign for the Catalan PP to get a job at Cs

Also, I am very disappointed to see Joaquín Leguina (first and only PSOE premier of Madrid) to be endorsing Ayuso, though I think he's moved to the right by a lot over the past few years. For some reason many people from the Felipe González era have moved quite a bit to the right

You are surprised the same party that ordered the financing of GAL has right-wing figures embedded in it after it was the main opposition underground institution during the dictatorship and set up to be the party of government? I mean, I have no doubt of most PSOE high ranking figures social democratic credentials but let's not flatter some of the heavyweights that joined out of opportunism/entryism either.

(yes, yes you can point out the tinfoil hat)

I will note that the main underground opposition institutions during the dictatorship was not PSOE (which was actually quite irrelevant until 1974; when it was indeed set up to be the main left wing party of Spain; but for most of francoism PSOE was an small and irrelevant force). Rather the underground opposition was led by the Communist Party (not exactly a hotbed for entryism) as well as the communist linked union of CCOO (which interestingly adopted entryist tactics within the fascist "vertical union"; but I don't think CCOO itself had many conservatives)

Most if not all pro-democracy conservatives in Spain ended up joining UCD (and later CDS and AP/PP) back in the day.

That's not to say there aren't cases of conservatives nowadays who were in the underground opposition. But those cases aren't exactly super common.

The main problem the people who were in PSOE during the Gonzalez era but are heavy Sanchez critics and even outright conservatives nowaday claim is the fact that Sanchez is willing to do deals and coalitions with secessionist parties. Whether it is true or just a convenient excuse who knows, but I'd believe them given it's a critic from many who were even in the more progressive side of the party in the 80s and 90s! (like deputy PM Alfonso Guerra, also a Sanchez critic)

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The main problem the people who were in PSOE during the Gonzalez era but are heavy Sanchez critics and even outright conservatives nowaday claim is the fact that Sanchez is willing to do deals and coalitions with secessionist parties. Whether it is true or just a convenient excuse who knows, but I'd believe them given it's a critic from many who were even in the more progressive side of the party in the 80s and 90s! (like deputy PM Alfonso Guerra, also a Sanchez critic)

Yep, this is the main factor. All those dinosaurs come from an era when the PSOE was more "culturally conservative", meaning it was relatively hawkish with regards to Catalonia and more unapologetically "patriotic" or "Spanish" (the native term being españolista); although this paradigm started to shift already during the Zapatero years, when the PSOE adopted more dovish stance with a more pluralistic concept of Spain in which Catalonia and others could be considered nations within a nation.

In terms of policy, this resulted in the 2006 Catalan Statute of Autonomy, which was controversial because it defined Catalonia as a nation and entitled the region to increased funding from Madrid, among other things. It met heavy opposition from many of the exact same dinosaurs that criticize Sánchez today, with Alfonso Guerra playing a major role in watering down many of its provisions in Congress (something which would fuel separatism in the 2010s). This was when the rift between PSOE leadership and these critics started, having grown wider in recent years due to the deals the current government has with pro-independence parties, as Tack mentioned.

[Velasco]

I don't think Alfonso Guerra was ever a representative of the PSOE's left wing (the official leftist faction was Izquierda Socialista). Rather, Mr Guerra was a populist who borrowed the descamisados (shirtless people) rhetoric from the Peronists. Old fashioned populist, needless to say, with no relation to the younger and more educated Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón (Guerra hates Podemos, obviously). He played an important role controlling the PSOE apparatus and in tandem with Felipe González. Felipe was the good cop and Alfonso the bad cop. I have read really hard stuff calling Guerra literally an imposter.

Leguina has been drifting rightwards for years, so I'm not surprised at all by his move. On the other hand, Fernando Savater has stated the Vox support is acceptable as long as it serves the purpose of kicking out the evil Pedro Sánchez. That's the state of affairs in Jurassic Park

[Alcibiades]

The main problem the people who were in PSOE during the Gonzalez era but are heavy Sanchez critics and even outright conservatives nowaday claim is the fact that Sanchez is willing to do deals and coalitions with secessionist parties. Whether it is true or just a convenient excuse who knows, but I'd believe them given it's a critic from many who were even in the more progressive side of the party in the 80s and 90s! (like deputy PM Alfonso Guerra, also a Sanchez critic)

Yep, this is the main factor. All those dinosaurs come from an era when the PSOE was more "culturally conservative", meaning it was relatively hawkish with regards to Catalonia and more unapologetically "patriotic" or "Spanish" (the native term being españolista); although this paradigm started to shift already during the Zapatero years, when the PSOE adopted more dovish stance with a more pluralistic concept of Spain in which Catalonia and others could be considered nations within a nation.

In terms of policy, this resulted in the 2006 Catalan Statute of Autonomy, which was controversial because it defined Catalonia as a nation and entitled the region to increased funding from Madrid, among other things. It met heavy opposition from many of the exact same dinosaurs that criticize Sánchez today, with Alfonso Guerra playing a major role in watering down many of its provisions in Congress (something which would fuel separatism in the 2010s). This was when the rift between PSOE leadership and these critics started, having grown wider in recent years due to the deals the current government has with pro-independence parties, as Tack mentioned.

How did this stance square with the fact that the PSOE would always win Catalonia in national elections in that period?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Yep, this is the main factor. All those dinosaurs come from an era when the PSOE was more "culturally conservative", meaning it was relatively hawkish with regards to Catalonia and more unapologetically "patriotic" or "Spanish" (the native term being españolista); although this paradigm started to shift already during the Zapatero years, when the PSOE adopted more dovish stance with a more pluralistic concept of Spain in which Catalonia and others could be considered nations within a nation.

In terms of policy, this resulted in the 2006 Catalan Statute of Autonomy, which was controversial because it defined Catalonia as a nation and entitled the region to increased funding from Madrid, among other things. It met heavy opposition from many of the exact same dinosaurs that criticize Sánchez today, with Alfonso Guerra playing a major role in watering down many of its provisions in Congress (something which would fuel separatism in the 2010s). This was when the rift between PSOE leadership and these critics started, having grown wider in recent years due to the deals the current government has with pro-independence parties, as Tack mentioned.

How did this stance square with the fact that the PSOE would always win Catalonia in national elections in that period?

Well, the PSC (the socialists in Catalonia) has always been more catalanista, in terms of identity, than the PSOE and has enjoyed considerable autonomy when it comes to expressing this stance. At some points they have broken quite significantly with the Madrid line, one prominent example being a 2012 Congress of Deputies vote on a self-determination consult for Catalonia in which the PSC voted in favor while the PSOE voted against.

Furthermore, although the PSOE was (relatively) more hawkish on Catalonia, it was nothing in comparison to how hawkish the Spanish right currently is, mainly because back then they didn’t need to be due to the fact that the Catalan nationalists were not pro-independence. Felipe González even governed with support from CiU between 1993 and 1996.

And, while the socialists did use to win in Catalonia, in almost every election they have had a lower percentage of the vote there than in Spain as a whole, the only exceptions being years when there was a strong urge of stopping a prospective PP government (1996 and 2008). This last factor has also played a role in the PSC’s success over time.

[Velasco]

Another threatening envelope has been sent to Reyes Maroto, the minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism. This time the envelope had a bloody knife within. Security controls failed again and the envelope was received at the minister's office. Apparently the knife painted in red was hidden between two compact discs, in order to deceive the scanner. Unlike the envelopes with bullets sent previously to Gámez, Grande-Marlaska and Iglesias this envelope has a return address, probably fake. PSOE candidate Ángel Gabilondo offered Reyes Maroto to be his deputy premier in case of victory.

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-04-26/spanish-tourism-minister-receives-letter-with-bloody-knife.html

Spain’s industry, commerce and tourism minister, Reyes Maroto, has become the latest high-profile figure to receive a threatening letter in the last week. On Monday the Industry Ministry confirmed that the Socialist Party (PSOE) politician had been sent a bloody knife in the mail along with a missive. The incident comes after Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias and Civil Guard chief María Gámez were all sent packages last week containing threats and bullets.  

In other news PP and Cs reject the proposal made by Ángel Gabilondo to establish a cordon sanitaire around Vox, deeming the measure "undemocratic". In other words, neither PP nor Cs would have any problem accepting the Vox support to govern and negotiating policies with that people. No matter that Vox is showing its true face, business as usual. Pollster Narciso Michavila believes recent events won't change the outcome and takes for granted the right will win the elections. Michavila is a conservative with a good reputation in the polling Industry

[Skye]

No matter that Vox is showing its true face, business as usual. Pollster Narciso Michavila believes recent events won't change the outcome and takes for granted the right will win the elections. Michavila is a conservative with a good reputation in the polling Industry

I read that Michavila believes that the PP will win all the districts of Madrid. I see that as so... unlikely? I mean, the PP is well positioned to come in first place in a majority of the districts of the city, even in some left-wing strongholds like Villa de Vallecas or Vicálvaro, but winning Puente de Vallecas is borderline impossible. It would take a perfect storm (and then some) for that to happen.

[Velasco]

No matter that Vox is showing its true face, business as usual. Pollster Narciso Michavila believes recent events won't change the outcome and takes for granted the right will win the elections. Michavila is a conservative with a good reputation in the polling Industry

I read that Michavila believes that the PP will win all the districts of Madrid. I see that as so... unlikely? I mean, the PP is well positioned to come in first place in a majority of the districts of the city, even in some left-wing strongholds like Villa de Vallecas or Vicálvaro, but winning Puente de Vallecas is borderline impossible. It would take a perfect storm (and then some) for that to happen.

I think it's feasible the PP wins a plurality in Puente de Vallecas or Vicalvaro, providing the rightwing block vote is concentrated in that party and the leftwing vote dispersed between three lists.  Michavila believes the PP margin over the PSOE will be more than 20% in all the region. However, it seems impossible to me the parties right of the centre win a majority in these districts,  especially in a high turnout scenario

[Skye]

No matter that Vox is showing its true face, business as usual. Pollster Narciso Michavila believes recent events won't change the outcome and takes for granted the right will win the elections. Michavila is a conservative with a good reputation in the polling Industry

I read that Michavila believes that the PP will win all the districts of Madrid. I see that as so... unlikely? I mean, the PP is well positioned to come in first place in a majority of the districts of the city, even in some left-wing strongholds like Villa de Vallecas or Vicálvaro, but winning Puente de Vallecas is borderline impossible. It would take a perfect storm (and then some) for that to happen.

I think it's feasible the PP wins a plurality in Puente de Vallecas or Vicalvaro, providing the rightwing block vote is concentrated in that party and the leftwing vote dispersed between three lists.  Michavila believes the PP margin over the PSOE will be more than 20% in all the region. However, it seems impossible to me the parties right of the centre win a majority in these districts,  especially in a high turnout scenario

FWIW, these are the %s obtained by each party and ideological bloc during the 2019 regional election in the Districts of Madrid:



The PP is bound to cannibalize the lion's share of that Cs %, and the city is more likely than not going to swing to the right so the PP's % will grow a bit more (likely at the expense of the PSOE). Even then, the VOX % might not move too much, if at all, so as you can see it just might be enough for the PP to win a plurality in Villa de Vallecas, but not nearly enough for a plurality in Puente de Vallecas.

[Velasco]

Thank you for posting the vote percentages, so I can see better. You are right, for I see that even in the most optimistic scenario for Ayuso, the PP can't win in Puente de Vallecas without a significant drop in the socialist vote. Furthermore, I think the PSOE has more chances than the PP to win pluralities in Usera and Villaverde, while Villa de Vallecas and Vicalvaro could be tossups.  Michavila has been saying the PP is going to win a landslide with a margin over the PSOE exceeding 20%. I think the PSOE vote was depressed at the beginning of the campaign, when Gabilondo was trying to play the role of moderate hero in search of a political centre that no longer exists. The CIS vote estimation was "performative", but the raw data suggested to some poll experts the PSOE voters might be starting to wake up. I think recent events might help the socialists,  in order to convince the potential voter base to show up. If the PSOE is succesful in that, maybe the Gabilondo list could get around 25% of vote (discounted some leaks to MM). On the other hand, rightwing voters are already mobilized and the lion's share of this vote will be for the PP (which is close to absolute majority, in the view of Michavila). It's likely a higher mobilization of the left will be neutralized by a mobilization of the right, so the block percentages would remain basically unchanged.  It's in the interest of Ayuso's PP to destroy Cs completely and grab as much of its voters as possible, because the left could have chances with Cs getting  a result like 4.5%. In this regard, my opinion is that people like Michavila play a role similar to Tezanos (albeit more subtle), downplaying the chances of Cs in order to favor that centre-right voters rally behind Ayuso

[Velasco]

I heard the results of a poll El País will release tomorrow

PP 59 seats (41%)
PSOE 28 (19%)
MM 25 (17%)
Vox 13 (9%)
UP 11 (8%)
Cs 0

PP and Vox have a majority. Strong PP result. The PSOE is still in free fall, with MM on the rise.  Vox and UP are stagnant. Cs disappears

[Skye]

I heard the results of a poll El País will release tomorrow

PP 59 seats (41%)
PSOE 28 (19%)
MM 25 (17%)
Vox 13 (9%)
UP 11 (8%)
Cs 0

PP and Vox have a majority. Strong PP result. The PSOE is still in free fall, with MM on the rise.  Vox and UP are stagnant. Cs disappears

I know the PSOE has been falling in the polls since the campaign began, but damn, I'd be quite the upset if Más Madrid overtakes it.

[Mike88]

The trends on the left are benefiting Más Madrid and hurting the PSOE. Could there be a political crisis, in the country, if PSOE polls third and Podemos also disappoints?

[Velasco]

The trends on the left are benefiting Más Madrid and hurting the PSOE. Could there be a political crisis, in the country, if PSOE polls third and Podemos also disappoints?

The result of the elections will have an impact in national politics, that's obvious. However, I don't think Más Madrid overtaking or coming close to the PSOE will provoke a political crisis in Spain. I'm not even sure it would provoke a major reconfiguration in the Spanish left, even though polls suggest that it's likely the alternative left would get more votes in this election than the mainstream left. Regional and general elections are of different kind. I suggest you to compare the results of the 2019 regional and general elections in Madrid and Valencia, because you will notice the existence of a clear dual vote in the space of the alternative left. Más Madrid and Compromis performed better in regional elections, but UP got a majority of the vote to the left of the PSOE in general elections. Possibly leftwing voters are willing to reward the labor of Mónica García in the opposition to Ayuso, especially during the pandemic. It seems that Más Madrid is focusing the campaign on issues that concern the common people and there's a grassroots work behind the candidate. Besides, Ángel Gabilondo has received criticism for being "disappeared" in the last two years. But national politics is totally different and Mas País has little implementation outside Madrid, even though Errejón claims he's building the party slowly but surely. I don't see Mas País challenging UP at national level, but maybe both organizations can reach agreements now that Yolanda Díaz is replacing Pablo Iglesias. I don't know, actually - two years is a long time

On the other hand, a victory of Ayuso and the rightwing block will surely aggravate political tension in Spain. I don't want to imagine how rhings are going to be with the increasing influence of Vox, which is revealing as one of the worst far-right parties in Europe (the infamous poster resembles Germany in the 1930s).  If I was in the PSOE and the outcome of the elections is like this poll predicts, I would suggest offering confidence and supply to the PP to isolate Vox. It won't happen and Ayuso looks like she would be happy working with Monasterio.

[Former President tack50]

No matter that Vox is showing its true face, business as usual. Pollster Narciso Michavila believes recent events won't change the outcome and takes for granted the right will win the elections. Michavila is a conservative with a good reputation in the polling Industry

I read that Michavila believes that the PP will win all the districts of Madrid. I see that as so... unlikely? I mean, the PP is well positioned to come in first place in a majority of the districts of the city, even in some left-wing strongholds like Villa de Vallecas or Vicálvaro, but winning Puente de Vallecas is borderline impossible. It would take a perfect storm (and then some) for that to happen.

I guess the election to look at for a comparison would be 2011; when Esperanza Aguirre led PP to a massive landslide, beating PSOE by a massive 51-26

Given that PSOE is polling around 23% or so (below Tomás Gómez's 26%, though not by that much); but Ayuso's PP is polling at 42% or so (well below Aguirre's 51%) my guess is that PSOE should perform better than in 2011 in terms of districts

I am not able to track down precise data from that 2011 election for the regional election, but all estimates I am finding show that Esperanza Aguirre came short of a ful sweep of all 21 districts, losing indeed Puente de Vallecas. I was able to find data for the local election happening the same day where Ruiz Gallardon slighly underperformed Aguirre but still did win 20/21 districts.

Given Ayuso will underperform Aguirre 2011, she might also lose 1-2 other districts that are left wing strongholds. Some candidates would include Villa de Vallecas, Vicálvaro, Villaverde or maybe Usera.

Based on an even swing from 2011 all of those would be extremely tight. I guess Ayuso will narrowly lose one of those, most likely Villa de Vallecas. If she underperforms slightly she'll lose Vicálvaro and Villaverde. She'd need to underperform even more to lose Usera, and everything else should be safe for her

[Former President tack50]

Also, MM somehow beating PSOE for 2nd might mean that Errejon's tiny party lives for now (unlike Cs, which looks to get buried this election). He won't get any more than 2 seats but this would tie up those 2 seats (plus a 3rd in Valencia for Compromís if they still go in coalition)

However there wouldn't really be any real national political implications beyond that, and even those are quite a stretch given we are far removed from a general election. It would help Errejón's tiny party at best and at worst do nothing.

I would compare the fallout perhaps to BNG beating PSOE for 2nd in Galicia while UP fell below the thresholds there. (as well as the concurrent bad election they both had in the Basque Country the same day). It didn't really have any national implications.

[Skye]

I am not able to track down precise data from that 2011 election for the regional election, but all estimates I am finding show that Esperanza Aguirre came short of a ful sweep of all 21 districts, losing indeed Puente de Vallecas. I was able to find data for the local election happening the same day where Ruiz Gallardon slighly underperformed Aguirre but still did win 20/21 districts.

Given Ayuso will underperform Aguirre 2011, she might also lose 1-2 other districts that are left wing strongholds. Some candidates would include Villa de Vallecas, Vicálvaro, Villaverde or maybe Usera.

Based on an even swing from 2011 all of those would be extremely tight. I guess Ayuso will narrowly lose one of those, most likely Villa de Vallecas. If she underperforms slightly she'll lose Vicálvaro and Villaverde. She'd need to underperform even more to lose Usera, and everything else should be safe for her

I have the data, and she did indeed lose Puente de Vallecas by about 5000 votes.

[Velasco]

Madrid election campaign descends into toxic battle

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-04-27/madrid-election-campaign-descends-into-toxic-battle.html

 The campaign ahead of the May 4 regional elections in Madrid has exploded. In just a few days, the discourse has moved on from the passionate debate between the candidates on the Telemadrid regional TV channel about the handling of the pandemic, to a series of ever-more concerning criminal incidents and regular clashes involving words that are charged with meaning and history: fascism, democracy, communism and freedom.

On Monday, the Spanish tourism minister, Reyes Maroto of the governing Socialist Party (PSOE), was sent a package containing a bloody knife. She spoke to reporters outside the Congress of Deputies and linked the incident to far-right Vox, calling on “the Madrileños who defend democracy to unite their voices, because democracy has to defeat hatred.” She called on citizens to prevent Vox – which in the previous administration propped up a coalition government headed by the conservative Popular Party (PP) and center-right Ciudadanos – from getting into power in the regional administration.

Hours later it emerged that the package had been sent by a man who has been diagnosed with a mental illness* (...)

* The man diagnised with mental illness who threatened Reyes Maroto claimed to be a Vox supporter in multiple complaints sent to the mailbox of a certifying agency, reports La Marea

https://www.lamarea.com/2021/04/27/el-hombre-que-envio-la-navaja-a-reyes-maroto-se-declaro-seguidor-de-vox-en-mensajes-a-maldita-es/

The pollster commissioned by El Pais is Metroscopia. I think Kiko Llaneras made the analysis of the data for the newspaper

https://twitter.com/kikollan/status/1386949135509622785?s=19

[Velasco]

On the other hand, a victory of Ayuso and the rightwing block will surely aggravate political tension in Spain. I don't want to imagine how rhings are going to be with the increasing influence of Vox, which is revealing as one of the worst far-right parties in Europe (the infamous poster resembles Germany in the 1930s).  If I was in the PSOE and the outcome of the elections is like this poll predicts, I would suggest offering confidence and supply to the PP to isolate Vox. It won't happen and Ayuso looks like she would be happy working with Monasterio.

For the record. Back in the day Iñigo Errejón offered the support of Más Madrid deputies in the regional assembly to PSOE and Cs. That offer was made in exchange for nothing, with the only purpose to prevent the influence of Vox in the government of the Madrid region. Cs rejected the offer out of hand.

Now we are facing the consequences of that decision. Cs enabled and whitewashed Vox since that infamous picture at Colón Square and it's on the brink of disappearing, while the PP under Casado and Ayuso has been abduced by the Trumpist rhetoric and is set to become the hostage of Vox. The only way to put an end to this downward spiral is isolating those who preach racist and hateful speech, breaking the perverse dynanics of block politics and affective polarization. This requires a pact between the democratic forces, establishing a cordon sanitaire or changing the mechanisms of investiture (for instance, Basque Country and Asturias have a system that prevents lockdowns)

What is happening rhese days in Madrid is extremely serious and apparently nobody is paying attention

On a separate note, just heard in the news ERC candidate Pere Aragonès will meet JxCAT secretary general Jordi Sánchez within a couple of hours at Lledoners prison,  in order to make progress in negotiations for the formation of government in Catalonia

[Skye]

I think the election in the city could end up looking like this:



Of course, I'm being a bit "unfair" to Más Madrid considering that Metroscopia poll hadn't been released when I made this (it could end up being an outlier as well), also, the Cs % isn't as bad as it could conceivably be.

[Velasco]

Average polling for regional elections is something like: PP 41%, PSOE 22%, MM 15%, Vox 9%, UP 8% and Cs 3%

Keeping in mind the result of Mas Madrid in 2019 was better in the city in comparison to the region, I expect MM gets at least 17% or 18% in the city and hopefully 30% in the district of Centro. The results of the PP are usually better in the city as well (1% or 2% above the regional result). Possibly the PSOE will get in the city a result 1% or 2% below its regional result. Vox and UP will be also slightly below their regional averages

[Niemeyerite]

Hello! I've been lurking for some days now and I only wanted to express how grateful I am for you to be sharing so much information about the Madrid election, and the high quality of the debate here

Unfortunately I'm just too busy to take part in this fantastic thread. My life is all about studying, working hard in a warehouse and taking care of my father... But as a madrileño who's been in this forum for years, I feel I should at least say who I'm voting for. And it'll be Unidas Podemos for the second time in my life (and first in regional elections, I voted PSOE in 2019). My brother and parents are also voting UP, and they all come from voting PSOE in previous general and regional elections. In my extended family, most of them socialist voters, I'd say the vote is split 1/3 PSOE, 1/3 MM, 1/3 UP. My friends are mostly voting for UP, too. I find this phenomenon very surprising because I have the feeling UP - and not MM- has a real momentum by talking to the people I know, but polls indicate the opposite. So either the polls are underrepresenting Podemos or the environment in which I live is totally unrepresentative of Madrid as a whole.

Anyway I also get the feeling that Diaz Ayuso will win by a landslide and get a majority with Vox, unfortunately. So I'll leave my prediction here:

PP 62
Vox 11
PSOE 31
MM 19
UP 13
Cs lol

I'm probably underestimating MM but it's for the reasons I just stated. I get the feeling that UP will get a better result than expected.

[Mike88]

So, now Ayuso almost, also, received bullets in her mail. The postal services in Barcelona intercepted a package with bullets addressed to her.