GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This isn't consistent with a Warnock +4 result at all so far.

Warnock+4 will depend on how well he does in counties like Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett. I don't think we can make a judgement either way on this, yet.

What do we feel about this now, 2 hours later? Of course there are plenty of votes left to count, but does what has changed over these two hours give us any good insight on the Warnock margin?

[QAnonKelly]

Still don’t understand how we got this far with a candidate with obvious CTE. Is OJ gonna run next?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/1600322175336329216

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

See Cali? This is how we count votes. 

C'mon.  Y'all can do it. 

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Walker overperformances in Northern Georgia are scary.

Considering like three hicks live in Northern Georgia, the literal setting of Deliverance, it doesn't scare me that much. I mean actually BEING there would be scary but how they vote is unsurprising.

Idk, three hicks is more than enough to make a KY Wildman squeal like a pig.

Current results are 50.11-49.89 Reverend with 85% estimated vote in.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The swing map gives me vibes of the 2021 runoff swing map from 2020 Pres, just with a bit more volatility. Turnout dynamics in northern GA seem to favor Rs in runoffs. Perhaps it has in part to do with the like small but notable Hispanic population in these counties.

Atlanta clearly swings left, and downstate overall swings left with some exceptions.

[YE]

It's important to note, as Wasserman does himself, that that tweet does not represent an official call by any TV network (and not one by DDNN either).
Personally, I don't believe in calling a race for one candidate when the other candidate is leading or may gain a lead.

Karl Rove is that you?

[Oryxslayer]

Made a previous post about Columbia, was accidentally comparing with the Gov race. Doesn't make the change any less notable.

Columbia:

Warnock lost 1.3K votes from Nov
Walker lost 3.8K

[Alben Barkley]

Walker overperformances in Northern Georgia are scary.

Considering like three hicks live in Northern Georgia, the literal setting of Deliverance, it doesn't scare me that much. I mean actually BEING there would be scary but how they vote is unsurprising.

Idk, three hicks is more than enough to make a KY Wildman squeal like a pig.

Current results are 50.11-49.89 Reverend with 85% estimated vote in.

It has already been called by everyone who knows what they are talking about. Sorry they apparently don't teach math in Oregon as well as they do in Kentucky.

[Not Me, Us]

Georgia is a lean D state now, no way Republicans can ever recover in Georgia from this monumental loss, and it’s going to drift that way with no end in sight.

What should we drink tonight?

I, for one, am going to slightly modify the goal of relative temperance I made at the start of the night. One more Captain Pepper to Blue Georgia!

I'll drink to that!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600323570269233152?s=20&t=GjMElbK_kCy...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600323570269233152

[Alben Barkley]

It's important to note, as Wasserman does himself, that that tweet does not represent an official call by any TV network (and not one by DDNN either).
Personally, I don't believe in calling a race for one candidate when the other candidate is leading or may gain a lead.

Karl Rove is that you?

It never gets old:

[Atlas Force]

^^
^^^

Damn posted at the same time

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600323570269233152

Maybe I was wrong to say the GA polls might be off compared to MI/WI/PA this time then. And to say that it would be a surprise if GA votes to the left of MI/PA at least any time soon.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Not going to post any more updates from the >95% in counties (which happen to be Republican counties, much to the dismay of my friend Forumlurker), but it’s looking like a slight rightward swing from Jan. 2021 and extremely close to the Nov. 2022 margins. Turnout is pretty solid as well. Probably not enough for Walker, but points to a close race unless Walker collapses in the urban & suburban areas.

At least wait for more election day vote before calling it.

You'll never guess what happened next

Still a pretty close race even though Warnock will obviously win, so not sure if this was supposed to be an "own" or whatever. Also note the "Probably not enough for Walker" part.

I will also note that Walker held his own in some of the northern exurbs (Hall, Jackson), not just the rurals.

I'm just saying it was an extremely safe assumption that Walker would underperform in exactly those urban and suburban areas.

[DrScholl]

Lindsey Graham is probably bawling his eyes out right now.


EDIT: For those who don't get it... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_EKRoxX1Co

He's the textbook stereotype of an overly dramatic southerner. With that said it's striking that his idea of a role model for people of color to vote Republican is an adult who cannot speak in complete or coherent sentences and has a record of violence. Graham completely demonstrated how out of touch Republicans are with Black people, because Walker is far from what most Black people see an empowering.

[LostFellow]

Walker improving on his margins from November in many rural counties yet being on track to lose by nearly 3x his November statewide margin really tells you everything you need to know about this state (and the nation as a whole sans Florida, honestly).

Imo something quite stark is that as an aggregate, the southern rurals seem to have actually swung towards Warnock. It seems that many counties initially reported as finished early in the evening giving a red mirage of an R swing like Washington Baldwin County actually had some mail ballots left, ending up with a D swing. The more populous north Georgia rurals are a different story though so far. Definitely can notice here an obvious racial polarization effect where North Georgia doesn't even have the small energized black base that D's are turning out exceptionally well.

[Alben Barkley]

Joy Reid is full of... joy and admitted she is "abandoning class." The MSNBC crew is about to break down on live national TV and admit they know it's over.

[Figueira]

NYT needle just moved from "Very likely Warnock" to "Almost certainly Warnock" LOL.

[Bojack Horseman]

If I weren’t in recovery I’d be popping a bottle of champagne and pouring shots of bourbon.

[kyc0705]

Of course they should have called it already, but for whatever it's worth, once one major outlet calls it all the others will follow suit within like 30 seconds, and that cascade will be a very cathartic moment.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe they're just waiting for Warnock's margin to get out of recount range, idk.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They nailed it 51/49 WARNOCK, blue GA, AZ, VA, CO, NV, MI,WI and PA

NO PATH FOR RS ON 24

[emailking]

^^
^^^

Damn posted at the same time

I recced both lol