GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[DaleCooper]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I doubt it will have much of an impact. If anything I bet it'll just mean that there will be less of an imbalance between the early vote and election day. I've never bought, even during the height of the COVID issue in 2020, that less early vote time would result in a bunch of Dems staying home. That judge election during the primaries being so favorable to Democrats in Wisconsin (easily at the peak of COVID fear) kind of lines up with that.

[DaleCooper]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

This is true and I hadn't considered that. It's possible that it could be an issue for them.

[forsythvoter]

I can report on the ground that the Runoff campaign activities seem to have started Had a youngish 30-something door knocker this morning (he said he was with the FoCo Dems and lived in the community) asking if I was aware the GA Senate race was going to a runoff and how I felt about Warnock and Walker. I told him my wife and I voted Warnock in Round 1 and most likely will again for the runoff, to which he replied that he was thrilled to hear that, gave me a reminder card for Dec 6, and thanked me for my time. He also offered me a Warnock sign or bumper sticker, though I politely declined.

I have to imagine the script would have been different if I had said I was supporting Walker, but I live in a relatively competitive portion of the county that was heavily Republican up until Trump became president and has since been trending D pretty rapidly, so I'm guessing the Dems think it's fertile ground for door-to-door persuasion type conversations early in the Runoff process.

[Ferguson97]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

[Ferguson97]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Walker isn't going to do anything to turn off Republicans who voted for him, it will be a matter of apathy. Democrats are likely to win Nevada, which would give them control of the Senate without the Georgia runoff.

If the runoff doesn't determine control of the Senate, there's less incentive for Republicans to turn out to hold their noses and vote for Walker if they didn't like him but prefer a Republican over a Democrat.

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Walker isn't going to do anything to turn off Republicans who voted for him, it will be a matter of apathy. Democrats are likely to win Nevada, which would give them control of the Senate without the Georgia runoff.

If the runoff doesn't determine control of the Senate, there's less incentive for Republicans to turn out to hold their noses and vote for Walker if they didn't like him but prefer a Republican over a Democrat.

This take is something only people with pundit brain buy.  People turnout for elections that are not pivotal in delivering majorities all the time.  Walker and Warnock are known commodities in a polarized state; turnout is going to be very high on both people. 

[Ferguson97]

Walker isn't going to do anything to turn off Republicans who voted for him, it will be a matter of apathy. Democrats are likely to win Nevada, which would give them control of the Senate without the Georgia runoff.

If the runoff doesn't determine control of the Senate, there's less incentive for Republicans to turn out to hold their noses and vote for Walker if they didn't like him but prefer a Republican over a Democrat.

This take is something only people with pundit brain buy.  People turnout for elections that are not pivotal in delivering majorities all the time.  Walker and Warnock are known commodities in a polarized state; turnout is going to be very high on both people. 

I'd sooner trust a pundit's predictions for Georgia than yours:

GA-SEN is the higher profile race.  I can believe Walker finishes behind Kemp, but only to the tune of 2-3%.  A >5% underperformance in such a highly polarized state would be a surprise.

My gut feeling is still that undecides break towards Walker and he clears 50% on election night. 

[Del Tachi]

Walker isn't going to do anything to turn off Republicans who voted for him, it will be a matter of apathy. Democrats are likely to win Nevada, which would give them control of the Senate without the Georgia runoff.

If the runoff doesn't determine control of the Senate, there's less incentive for Republicans to turn out to hold their noses and vote for Walker if they didn't like him but prefer a Republican over a Democrat.

This take is something only people with pundit brain buy.  People turnout for elections that are not pivotal in delivering majorities all the time.  Walker and Warnock are known commodities in a polarized state; turnout is going to be very high on both people. 

I'd sooner trust a pundit's predictions for Georgia than yours:

GA-SEN is the higher profile race.  I can believe Walker finishes behind Kemp, but only to the tune of 2-3%.  A >5% underperformance in such a highly polarized state would be a surprise.

My gut feeling is still that undecides break towards Walker and he clears 50% on election night. 

Seeing as my “prediction” aligned closely with the conventional wisdom, I’m not sure what point you’re even trying to make

“Ooooooooh Del Tachi doesn’t have a crystal ball” LOL

[here2view]

Just got an email from Warnock about the runoff

[Rookie Yinzer]

Dem base actually likes Warnock and Independents will hold their nose to vote for him.

The fact that Walker finished 1 point behind Warnock while all Republicans were winning by 5+ is pathetic and indicative of how turnout for him will plummet among a certain sect of GOP in the runoff. Hardcore election truther hicks cannot save him if GOP support in wealthy, densely populated ATL suburbs craters.

[Adam Griffin]

Another consideration with regard to turnout that may be less than ideal for Republicans: there is only one statewide mandated week of in-person EV for runoffs (5 days), but counties can choose to offer more (if my interpretation is correct, up to 9 days; the weekends bookending it). This will likely lead to a scenario where most rural and Republican counties have several fewer days of in-person voting available. Even though weekend voting was not a huge segment of the overall EV in this election, it may end up being a meaningfully greater share if people cannot vote over three weeks' worth of workdays.

While Walker lost early in-person voting, Kemp still won it by a fraction of a point: it's a very important voting solution for Republicans and any added discrepancies against them that force a greater share of their vote to be cast solely in a single day does not work in their favor.

Just in case anyone is curious about this year's breakdowns (i.e. both candidates who came out on top won the most early in-person votes):

Mail Votes: 68-31 (+37 Warnock)
Early In-Person: 53-45 (+7 Warnock)
Election Day: 56-41 (+15 Walker)

Mail Votes: 62-37 (+25 Abrams)
Early In-Person: 50-50 (+0 Kemp)
Election Day: 62-37 (+25 Kemp)

[Spectator]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Warnock is leading by 0.9%, not 0.5%. The CNN number is wrong based on Henry County.

[skbl17]

Interesting observation:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1590769615524622336

I had to doublecheck, and not only is it true, Warnock won every precinct in the county with a majority of the vote. I thought the two Trump 2020 precincts in Dunwoody would stay with Walker (or vote for Warnock but by plurality only), but nope:

- Austin ES: Warnock 50.7%
- Kingsley ES: Warnock 50.2%

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Warnock wins the runoff, he will have finished first in four elections for the same Senate seat in a little over two years.  That's pretty wild.

[South Dakota Democrat]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Warnock is leading by 0.9%, not 0.5%. The CNN number is wrong based on Henry County.

1.3% actually, with Warnock at 49.6%

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Warnock is leading by 0.9%, not 0.5%. The CNN number is wrong based on Henry County.

1.3% actually, with Warnock at 49.6%

Damn those .41% of people that didn’t vote for Warnock and gonna make us have to go through this again in a month

[Spectator]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters.  

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Warnock is leading by 0.9%, not 0.5%. The CNN number is wrong based on Henry County.

1.3% actually, with Warnock at 49.6%

Oh damn did new sh**t just drop?

Edit: CNN overcorrected. No way Warnock is winning in Bulloch County. +0.9% is what it looks like.

[bagelman]

It's really hard for me to see Walker winning after his colossal underpreformance compared to Kemp & co.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Don’t count out the notorious shy Walker voters who only turn out for a run-off.

[Adam Griffin]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Warnock is leading by 0.9%, not 0.5%. The CNN number is wrong based on Henry County.

1.3% actually, with Warnock at 49.6%

Damn those .41% of people that didn’t vote for Warnock and gonna make us have to go through this again in a month

Best ad ever:

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1587097961787441154

I can't help but assume there were some intentional, motivational undertones to all of this aimed at certain voters.

"GUESS WHO'S COMING TO [THANKSGIVING] DINNER? MULTIPLE BLACK MEN IF YOU DON'T VOTE RIGHT [SANDY SPRINGS, EAST COBB, ALPHARETTA, CUMMING, CANTON & BUFORD]!!!"

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1590865904803450881

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout probably won't be increasing from Tuesday, so we have our universe of voters. There's basically 4 plotlines for how this race goes. The following changes though will only be occurring at the margins, this is still a racially polarized southern state so its not going be some seismic shift.

1) Walker voters who cast ballots in favor of an R senate, not Walker, go for Warnock or stay home. Warnock wins.
2) Dem voters, now knowing the senate will be blue, have less incentive to show up. Walker wins.
3) The libertarian voters essentially are the voters who were put off by Walker's scandals. The distribution of them when matched to Kemp suggests so. They don't go to Walker - stay home or go D -and therefore Warnock wins by a margin slightly larger than presently.
4) Some major national event or opinion swing, like maybe Trump deciding to get going, occurs in the next three weeks and the race changes.

[Adam Griffin]

Two major things I've looked at thus far regarding Walker's individual popularity in the results:

1) Undervoting/"drop-on". It's not uncommon at all for even contest #2 on the ballot to get >1% fewer votes in Georgia statewide contests, but we usually see this when there's only one high-profile contest on the ballot. This time there were two - with the Senate contest taking top billing. Yet 18,000 more people cast ballots in the #2 Kemp-Abrams race! That's almost 1 in 200 voters who said "no thanks" to the contest and where typical down-ballot drop-off wasn't applicable.

2) Libertarian spread. Again, both races received high-profile coverage and to the average layperson, both were considered highly competitive. There's no legitimate argument to be made that one Libertarian candidate was "better" than the other (to those paying true attention, they would have known that the Senate race was the riskier of the 2 in which to vote L, if anything), and still, the Senate L got almost 3x as many votes as the Gov L. That's more than 53,000 people who also said "no thanks" to the contest.

If someone wants to make an articulate argument on how these were actually Democrats leaving their ballots blank or voting L en masse, then I'm all ears. Otherwise, these two factors don't bode well for Walker in a Senate-exclusive runoff*, where these two phenomena of people shunning Walker (without casting a two-party vote) comprised a maximum of 1.8% of all November-22 voters. Do you really think these people will come back out to vote, especially if Senate control is already decided?

*Some counties may have runoffs for local races - likely very few of these, though

[wbrocks67]

Having Kemp on the ticket still gave Walker a 1% loss against Warnock on the same ticket. I don't see how he reverses that without Kemp unless Dem turnout craters.