MA-GOV 2022 Megathread

[President Johnson]

https://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/article/support-gov-baker-eroding-ahead-third-term

New UMass poll finds his approval has slidden to 52%. It's still high, but thats down from a high of 78% in August. His popularity seems to be sliding rapidly because of the vaccine rollout.

Haven't been following that recently. Isn't Baker doing well here? I would expect him to do well here as experienced and pragmatic executive.

[President Johnson]

It’s curious to me Baker hasn’t announced yet.

I mean if he wants to stay in politics what else is he going to do? Nothing.

We all know he’s running again so just announce it...


Baker/Healey: Likely Republican
Baker/Kennedy: Tossup
Baker/Chang-Diaz: Likely Republican
Baker/Allen: Safe Republican
Polito/Healey: Lean Democrat
Polito/Kennedy: Safe Democrat
Politio/Chang-Diaz: Lean Democrat
Politio/Allen: Likely Republican
Diehl/Healey: Safe Democrat
Diehl/Kennedy: TITANIUM Democrat
Diehl/Chang-Diaz: Likely Democrat
Diehl/Allen: Lean Democrat

It's still relatively early and he could announce in September or October. As for the general election, Baker is pretty much safe in any matchup.

[President Johnson]

Baker will probably improve once he announces. Not that prediction markets are that predeictive either. The question is just whether he runs or not.

[President Johnson]

What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

My take is 50-50, but some MA posters perhaps know better.

Agreed, could go either way. I personally get the sense that Baker is tired/worn out as a result of managing the state during COVID. My prediction is that he retires, and endorses his Lieutenant Governor (Karyn Polito) to succeed him.

That's possible, but isn't she a conservative? Any halfway decent Democratic candidate should easily win here.

[President Johnson]

Why is it that Massachusetts, one of the bluest, if not the bluest, state in the country, seems to like to elect Republican governors?  Republicans won 4 straight gubernatorial elections between 1990 and 2002.  Granted, 1990 was kind of a fluke.  It was a socially conservative Democrat vs. a socially liberal Republican.  But now over the last generation, Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts, and only once, in 2006, did the Democratic candidate win more than 50% of the vote.  Baker gave Patrick a pretty good run in 2010, and it probably would have been closer yet had it not been for the 3rd party candidate, Tim Cahill.

All these Republican governors ran and governed as moderates and elections at the state level are (still) less partisan than races for national office. Also seems like voters like some degree of power sharing as the legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic and a moderate Republican governor is seen as sort of a "correction".

To be honest, I also like Baker and in 2018 would have voted for him and Liz Warren on the same ballot.

[President Johnson]

Baker hasn't declared yet, according to Wikipedia. Anyway, if he runs, endorsed.

[President Johnson]

That's unfortunate to see Baker retiring. The second best Republican currently in office. He wasn't so popular in a blue state for nothing.

With him out of the race, this is probably Safe Democratic now, with Maura Healey as the favorite for the nomination.

[President Johnson]

D's like Prez Johnson can stop their praise of Baker, finally a D Gov after 8 yrs

He was still a pretty good governor.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1469279598345080840?s=21

She would become the immediate favorite, wouldn't she?

[President Johnson]

Yeah, even for Baker she would be very serious opponent. It will be funny to see what Diehl will be able to do... I would still prefer more sane Republican candidate, but in this case it will, probably, not matter.

I think she only jumped into the race because Baker announced his retirement wouldn't have challenged him otherwise. She easily just could have waited for another cycle.

[President Johnson]

Marty Walsh out

https://twitter.com/lokayfox5/status/1484306289710682117?s=21

Did he ever consider running?

[President Johnson]

Consensus seems to be Diehl will win the nomination and lose the general by being a lunatic, so I'm curious-

Do any of you think Lt. Gov. Polito would have won? Personally I think she could have.

Doubtful, she's more conservative than Baker. Maybe not nearly as as right as the average Republican today, but too conservative to win a state like Massachusetts on her own. If I remember correctly, she was picked in 2014 to sort of appease more conservative Republicans. Her association with Baker certainly would have given Polito a few extra point, I just don't see it being enough to win against a candidate like Maura Haley. Coming within ten percent would probably the best she can do.

[President Johnson]

In case anyone what Baker was planning on doing after being Governor.

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1603408289173209098?s=20&t=AmXwSS-...

huh, that’s an interesting change of careers

Definitely. Seems like he's really interested in that, though, not in for the money.

I would actually have liked him to stay around, perhaps serve in the Biden Administration.