MA-GOV 2022 Megathread

[Duke of York]

What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

My take is 50-50, but some MA posters perhaps know better.

[JMT]

What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

My take is 50-50, but some MA posters perhaps know better.

Agreed, could go either way. I personally get the sense that Baker is tired/worn out as a result of managing the state during COVID. My prediction is that he retires, and endorses his Lieutenant Governor (Karyn Polito) to succeed him.

[President Johnson]

What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

My take is 50-50, but some MA posters perhaps know better.

Agreed, could go either way. I personally get the sense that Baker is tired/worn out as a result of managing the state during COVID. My prediction is that he retires, and endorses his Lieutenant Governor (Karyn Polito) to succeed him.

That's possible, but isn't she a conservative? Any halfway decent Democratic candidate should easily win here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't underestimate Ben Downing since this is a 304 Election or Volinski in NH

Same with Laura Kelly, Beshear and Hobbs either

Bill Walker will win in AK too

[RRusso1982]

Why is it that Massachusetts, one of the bluest, if not the bluest, state in the country, seems to like to elect Republican governors?  Republicans won 4 straight gubernatorial elections between 1990 and 2002.  Granted, 1990 was kind of a fluke.  It was a socially conservative Democrat vs. a socially liberal Republican.  But now over the last generation, Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts, and only once, in 2006, did the Democratic candidate win more than 50% of the vote.  Baker gave Patrick a pretty good run in 2010, and it probably would have been closer yet had it not been for the 3rd party candidate, Tim Cahill.

[President Johnson]

Why is it that Massachusetts, one of the bluest, if not the bluest, state in the country, seems to like to elect Republican governors?  Republicans won 4 straight gubernatorial elections between 1990 and 2002.  Granted, 1990 was kind of a fluke.  It was a socially conservative Democrat vs. a socially liberal Republican.  But now over the last generation, Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts, and only once, in 2006, did the Democratic candidate win more than 50% of the vote.  Baker gave Patrick a pretty good run in 2010, and it probably would have been closer yet had it not been for the 3rd party candidate, Tim Cahill.

All these Republican governors ran and governed as moderates and elections at the state level are (still) less partisan than races for national office. Also seems like voters like some degree of power sharing as the legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic and a moderate Republican governor is seen as sort of a "correction".

To be honest, I also like Baker and in 2018 would have voted for him and Liz Warren on the same ballot.

[JMT]

What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

My take is 50-50, but some MA posters perhaps know better.

Agreed, could go either way. I personally get the sense that Baker is tired/worn out as a result of managing the state during COVID. My prediction is that he retires, and endorses his Lieutenant Governor (Karyn Polito) to succeed him.

That's possible, but isn't she a conservative? Any halfway decent Democratic candidate should easily win here.

From my understanding, Polito was more conservative at the beginning of her political career (she previously served 10 years as a State Representative) and was popular with conservatives (some speculated that Baker chose her as his running mate to appeal to conservative voters), but has since become more moderate during her time as Lieutenant Governor. Polito reversed her stance on same-sex marriage (she now supports it), is pro-choice, did not support Donald Trump's campaign in 2016 or 2020, and has been a strong ally of Baker's.

I do think Democrats would have a good chance against Polito (especially if Maura Healey runs), but I wouldn't discount Polito, either. Running as a moderate with Baker's support, Polito could win. MA has a long history of electing Republican Governors.

I would rate a Healey vs. Polito matchup as Lean Democrat, but it certainly could go either way (it's also still very early).

[Schiff for Senate]

MA, NH arent safe Ben Downing is an excellent candidate and last poll had him down 7, did you know Baker was trailing in 2014, by 7 and he won, the map follows the Blue wall 304

This isn't 2018 anymore

You're right, 2022 will be a much worse year for the Democrats than 2018.


MA is a blue state with a very popular red governor. The problem isn't finding a suitable candidate, because ordinarilly Massachusetts Democrats get elected without any trouble in statewide races (though MA-GOV has always been red leaning), it's that Baker is the opponent. If he retires the race should be safe Democratic regardless of what the national climate is. If he doesn't, then the opponent doesn't matter, and whatever small chance any Democrat may have against Baker whatosever goes away when you factor in that it will be a Biden midterm. Baker won by 33.5% in the state in 2018, and that won't just get removed because he has a great Democratic opponent. The fact that it's a red year just won't hurt Baker in his cruise to a third term (assuming he wants it).

[MarkD]

Here's a question about one of the executive positions in MA:

William F. Galvin is in his 27th year as Secretary of the Commonwealth. He has won seven consecutive elections to this position, starting in 1994. He recently celebrated his 71st birthday. Is he going to run for an eighth term?

[progressive85]

Team Charlie.  I did not vote for him in the first two elections, but that 2018 D candidate was never going to beat Ol' Charlie.

I'll be voting for Governor Baker in 2022 - and it will be among the very few times I have ever voted for a Republican in a general election. 

He has been a great Governor for this state and widely popular for a reason.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1443747326170996741?s=20

[smoltchanov]

Team Charlie.  I did not vote for him in the first two elections, but that 2018 D candidate was never going to beat Ol' Charlie.

I'll be voting for Governor Baker in 2022 - and it will be among the very few times I have ever voted for a Republican in a general election. 

He has been a great Governor for this state and widely popular for a reason.

I can only wish that more people like him or Phil Scott (or Hogan) would be among Republican party candidates for office, and that this party wouldn't slide to complete idiocy (exactly what it did in the last decade, though it's not alone in this). There is little hope for this right now, but - may be in the future?

[progressive85]

Team Charlie.  I did not vote for him in the first two elections, but that 2018 D candidate was never going to beat Ol' Charlie.

I'll be voting for Governor Baker in 2022 - and it will be among the very few times I have ever voted for a Republican in a general election. 

He has been a great Governor for this state and widely popular for a reason.

I can only wish that more people like him or Phil Scott (or Hogan) would be among Republican party candidates for office, and that this party wouldn't slide to complete idiocy (exactly what it did in the last decade, though it's not alone in this). There is little hope for this right now, but - may be in the future?

Ol' Charlie's a really nice guy.  Yeah, he's not going to raise taxes on the top 0.01% in MA, but he's a nice dude and he's doing the best he can with a very hard situation (COVID).  So he gets my vote because he's widely viewed as better than many of the Governors that came before him.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a question about one of the executive positions in MA:

William F. Galvin is in his 27th year as Secretary of the Commonwealth. He has won seven consecutive elections to this position, starting in 1994. He recently celebrated his 71st birthday. Is he going to run for an eighth term?

Probably. Most of these long-tenured statewide officials (i.e. Tom Miller in Iowa, Doug LaFollette in Wisconsin), who've been in office for decades, are running for reelection, just like how most of the longest-serving members of Congress are giving it another go. Jesse White, the Secretary of State of Illinois, however, is retiring.

[JMT]

Here's a question about one of the executive positions in MA:

William F. Galvin is in his 27th year as Secretary of the Commonwealth. He has won seven consecutive elections to this position, starting in 1994. He recently celebrated his 71st birthday. Is he going to run for an eighth term?

Probably. Most of these long-tenured statewide officials (i.e. Tom Miller in Iowa, Doug LaFollette in Wisconsin), who've been in office for decades, are running for reelection, just like how most of the longest-serving members of Congress are giving it another go. Jesse White, the Secretary of State of Illinois, however, is retiring.

I haven't heard a lot about this race as of late, but an article in the Boston Globe back in May had the following quote from Galvin: "In November, I’ll be able to give you a succinct answer. The election’s next year. If it were today, I probably would [run].”

So it sounds like we should be getting an answer from Galvin soon, and it looks like he's leaning towards running again. He'll almost certainly win if he wants another term, in my view. In 2018 Galvin was challenged in the Democratic primary by Boston City Councilor Josh Zakim, and despite the fact that Zakim was endorsed by the Massachusetts Democratic Party, Galvin won renomination with about 68% of the vote. So I don't think he'll be vulnerable in the primary (and certainly not in the general election).

According to the article, other possible candidates for Secretary of State include State Senator Jamie Eldridge (if Galvin doesn't run again), and State Senator Rebecca Rausch (who may run regardless of what Galvin does).

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/05/31/metro/changing-guard-massachusettss-2022-election-cycle-could-be-primed-history-turnover/ 

[Figueira]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1443747326170996741?s=20

It would be hilarious if the ticket ends up being Downing/Hinds. Hinds succeeded Downing to represent the same district (largest and westernmost in the state) and they're both bald white guys in their forties.

[progressive85]

Team Charlie '22!!!!



My King is Alive!!!

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1443747326170996741?s=20

It would be hilarious if the ticket ends up being Downing/Hinds. Hinds succeeded Downing to represent the same district (largest and westernmost in the state) and they're both bald white guys in their forties.

Well, they can instantly advertise their team as "new bald leadership...."))))

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There hasn't been any recent polls on MA Gov and Downing is only down by 7 Baker was down too by 7 on Coakley and came back and won. Baker isn't gonna win by 20 like he did in 2018

[President Johnson]

Baker hasn't declared yet, according to Wikipedia. Anyway, if he runs, endorsed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have Endorsed Ben Downing, we need another poll

[Oryxslayer]

Trump endorses Deihl for MA Governor. If Baker runs for reelection then this could work in his favor - it allows him to easily run away from Trump and get Indies to vote for Baker in the R primary. If he doesn't run, then I expect this to give Deihl the nom over Polito and therefore had the race to the Dems.

[Figueira]

Trump endorses Deihl for MA Governor. If Baker runs for reelection then this could work in his favor - it allows him to easily run away from Trump and get Indies to vote for Baker in the R primary. If he doesn't run, then I expect this to give Deihl the nom over Polito and therefore had the race to the Dems.

Baker is getting a taste of his own far-right medicine. If he doesn't like Diehl he shouldn't have endorsed him in 2018 against Warren.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump endorses Deihl for MA Governor. If Baker runs for reelection then this could work in his favor - it allows him to easily run away from Trump and get Indies to vote for Baker in the R primary. If he doesn't run, then I expect this to give Deihl the nom over Polito and therefore had the race to the Dems.

Quite the contrary, Trump's endorsement makes or breaks primaries, even in deep blue states. I expect Diehl to win the Republican Primary, even if Baker runs for another term, and in any event, I now expect Baker to announce that he won't be running for reelection any day now.