Texas 2022 megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

Those El Paso numbers (and I think other populated counties too?) are huge and show that it’s not just Zapata county it’s swaths of people

Yes, this is why the narrative that it’s just some rural/small-town border counties in the RGV/South TX that will barely make a dent in the inevitable D trend and be completely overwhelmed by massive D shifts in the metro areas is flawed. If all those 'smaller' counties and El Paso/Hidalgo trend strongly to the right and Houston remains stagnant, even Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin very likely won’t flip the state this decade.

We’ll see what happens, but right now, TX isn’t looking like "GA 2016" but more like a (more) Republican mirror image of MN. That could change, so Republicans can’t get overconfident, but I don’t think TX becoming a blue state any time soon is quite as inevitable as it’s made out to be.

in order for those shifts to matter though, the GOP has to actually be cutting into Dems net vote margins otherwise they're just stopping Dems from winning as many votes as they could have.

In 2020 for instance, Biden still net more votes than Clinton out of El Paso, even if it swung right.

However, in Hidalgo, Trump cut Biden's margin (from HRC) by ~35k votes which is pretty substantial. However, unless you believe the GOP will start outright winning the County, the 38k remaining votes in Biden's margin isn't a lot to cut into.

A reminder that in just 1 cycle, Biden was able to net about 100k more votes out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece, and still expanded on Clinton's Harris County margin by about 60k votes despite it's "stagnation". That more than cancels out Hidalgo.

If the GOP wants to hold Texas, Hidalgo doesn't do much unless it actually becomes strongly GOP leaning, but increasing raw vote margins in areas that already heavily favour them but have low turnout would probably go much further

You could use the same argument for Dems. It's probably not worth it to invest in rural Texas, but heavily minority parts of Dallas and Houston in particularly have quite poor turnout; juicing that up could really help them. Even if Houston stagnates, if turnout increases Dems can still net more raw votes out of it.

My guess is Texas is in reach for Dems going forwards but it takes a bit before it actually votes to the left of the nation.

It’s true that these counties alone will not hold off a few cycles of sustained shifts in the metros. But the idea that the triangle metro counties can all keep shifting hard left forever in a neutral environment is not very realistic. Biden already handily carried the moderate and independent vote in Texas and at some point these counties max out under the current electorate (as has been stated about Miami-Dade). Maybe the electorate changes eventually with demographic change, but that takes time

[ProgressiveModerate]

Those El Paso numbers (and I think other populated counties too?) are huge and show that it’s not just Zapata county it’s swaths of people

Yes, this is why the narrative that it’s just some rural/small-town border counties in the RGV/South TX that will barely make a dent in the inevitable D trend and be completely overwhelmed by massive D shifts in the metro areas is flawed. If all those 'smaller' counties and El Paso/Hidalgo trend strongly to the right and Houston remains stagnant, even Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin very likely won’t flip the state this decade.

We’ll see what happens, but right now, TX isn’t looking like "GA 2016" but more like a (more) Republican mirror image of MN. That could change, so Republicans can’t get overconfident, but I don’t think TX becoming a blue state any time soon is quite as inevitable as it’s made out to be.

in order for those shifts to matter though, the GOP has to actually be cutting into Dems net vote margins otherwise they're just stopping Dems from winning as many votes as they could have.

In 2020 for instance, Biden still net more votes than Clinton out of El Paso, even if it swung right.

However, in Hidalgo, Trump cut Biden's margin (from HRC) by ~35k votes which is pretty substantial. However, unless you believe the GOP will start outright winning the County, the 38k remaining votes in Biden's margin isn't a lot to cut into.

A reminder that in just 1 cycle, Biden was able to net about 100k more votes out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece, and still expanded on Clinton's Harris County margin by about 60k votes despite it's "stagnation". That more than cancels out Hidalgo.

If the GOP wants to hold Texas, Hidalgo doesn't do much unless it actually becomes strongly GOP leaning, but increasing raw vote margins in areas that already heavily favour them but have low turnout would probably go much further

You could use the same argument for Dems. It's probably not worth it to invest in rural Texas, but heavily minority parts of Dallas and Houston in particularly have quite poor turnout; juicing that up could really help them. Even if Houston stagnates, if turnout increases Dems can still net more raw votes out of it.

My guess is Texas is in reach for Dems going forwards but it takes a bit before it actually votes to the left of the nation.

It’s true that these counties alone will not hold off a few cycles of sustained shifts in the metros. But the idea that the triangle metro counties can all keep shifting hard left forever in a neutral environment is not very realistic. Biden already handily carried the moderate and independent vote in Texas and at some point these counties max out under the current electorate (as has been stated about Miami-Dade). Maybe the electorate changes eventually with demographic change, but that takes time

Ye it's def fair because a lot of people take the metros shifting left for granted

I would say Austin is prolly close to getting as blue as it's going to get but population growth should assist Dems, they just won't gain as dramatically as they have these past few cycles. However, it's also the metro I'm most certain in as there's really no reason it'd suddenly start going hard right and it can't get much bluer.

Dallas County itself is probably getting pretty close to it's max for Dems as basically the entire County leans pretty heavily left. However, Dallas Counties turnout especially in the heavily minority areas is really bad so if they invest they still have votes to net out of it. However, the neighboring suburban Counties all seem likely to continue shifting left again from demographic change alone, but probably won't net Dems as many votes since a lot of folks moving to them vote GOP, it's just more of them vote Dem.

Harris County is a simillar situation to Dallas with the turnout but I actually think the GOP has more room to fall because several of the GOP pockets are because of things such as like the oil industry which are becoming less and less the focus of the metro's economy. Ft. Bend will almost centainly continue to get bluer. I think the County will shift left but I'd be curious to see if the GOP can expand their raw vote margins in Montgomery County.

San Antonio is a bit weird because it's inbetween an El-Paso type city and a Dallas type city, both in terms of size and culture. There seems to be less white collar development going on, so I honestly think Dems are going to be somewhat disappointed in Bexar County going forwards. Also, it's suburbs generally seem to have re-aligned slightly ahead of Dallas and Houston's.

The GOP has over 600k votes they can afford to lose which may seem like a lot but as soon as you start doing the math it's not a very secure buffer. However, I really do question if Dems will net another additional 100k votes out of Dallas and Travis in 2024 and beyond.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Those El Paso numbers (and I think other populated counties too?) are huge and show that it’s not just Zapata county it’s swaths of people

Yes, this is why the narrative that it’s just some rural/small-town border counties in the RGV/South TX that will barely make a dent in the inevitable D trend and be completely overwhelmed by massive D shifts in the metro areas is flawed. If all those 'smaller' counties and El Paso/Hidalgo trend strongly to the right and Houston remains stagnant, even Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin very likely won’t flip the state this decade.

We’ll see what happens, but right now, TX isn’t looking like "GA 2016" but more like a (more) Republican mirror image of MN. That could change, so Republicans can’t get overconfident, but I don’t think TX becoming a blue state any time soon is quite as inevitable as it’s made out to be.

in order for those shifts to matter though, the GOP has to actually be cutting into Dems net vote margins otherwise they're just stopping Dems from winning as many votes as they could have.

In 2020 for instance, Biden still net more votes than Clinton out of El Paso, even if it swung right.

However, in Hidalgo, Trump cut Biden's margin (from HRC) by ~35k votes which is pretty substantial. However, unless you believe the GOP will start outright winning the County, the 38k remaining votes in Biden's margin isn't a lot to cut into.

A reminder that in just 1 cycle, Biden was able to net about 100k more votes out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece, and still expanded on Clinton's Harris County margin by about 60k votes despite it's "stagnation". That more than cancels out Hidalgo.

If the GOP wants to hold Texas, Hidalgo doesn't do much unless it actually becomes strongly GOP leaning, but increasing raw vote margins in areas that already heavily favour them but have low turnout would probably go much further

You could use the same argument for Dems. It's probably not worth it to invest in rural Texas, but heavily minority parts of Dallas and Houston in particularly have quite poor turnout; juicing that up could really help them. Even if Houston stagnates, if turnout increases Dems can still net more raw votes out of it.

My guess is Texas is in reach for Dems going forwards but it takes a bit before it actually votes to the left of the nation.

It’s true that these counties alone will not hold off a few cycles of sustained shifts in the metros. But the idea that the triangle metro counties can all keep shifting hard left forever in a neutral environment is not very realistic. Biden already handily carried the moderate and independent vote in Texas and at some point these counties max out under the current electorate (as has been stated about Miami-Dade). Maybe the electorate changes eventually with demographic change, but that takes time

Ye it's def fair because a lot of people take the metros shifting left for granted

I would say Austin is prolly close to getting as blue as it's going to get but population growth should assist Dems, they just won't gain as dramatically as they have these past few cycles. However, it's also the metro I'm most certain in as there's really no reason it'd suddenly start going hard right and it can't get much bluer.

Dallas County itself is probably getting pretty close to it's max for Dems as basically the entire County leans pretty heavily left. However, Dallas Counties turnout especially in the heavily minority areas is really bad so if they invest they still have votes to net out of it. However, the neighboring suburban Counties all seem likely to continue shifting left again from demographic change alone, but probably won't net Dems as many votes since a lot of folks moving to them vote GOP, it's just more of them vote Dem.

Harris County is a simillar situation to Dallas with the turnout but I actually think the GOP has more room to fall because several of the GOP pockets are because of things such as like the oil industry which are becoming less and less the focus of the metro's economy. Ft. Bend will almost centainly continue to get bluer. I think the County will shift left but I'd be curious to see if the GOP can expand their raw vote margins in Montgomery County.

San Antonio is a bit weird because it's inbetween an El-Paso type city and a Dallas type city, both in terms of size and culture. There seems to be less white collar development going on, so I honestly think Dems are going to be somewhat disappointed in Bexar County going forwards. Also, it's suburbs generally seem to have re-aligned slightly ahead of Dallas and Houston's.

The GOP has over 600k votes they can afford to lose which may seem like a lot but as soon as you start doing the math it's not a very secure buffer. However, I really do question if Dems will net another additional 100k votes out of Dallas and Travis in 2024 and beyond.

Thanks for this interesting post. You made some good educated guesses and observations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is gonna win by 1o 55)45 it's not much gonna happen with these Biden Approvals in TX anyways...

Beto was only a backdrop to Matthew McConaughey who was smart enough not to take on TX, but it appeared winnable for Beto because TX always is within 6 pts but D's like HEGAR couldn't get below that number

Nothing to see, ANYMORE

[Real Texan Politics]

The latest news in tweets:

Beto came out in support of ending Title 42, yet another nail in the coffin for his campaign.
https://twitter.com/AbbottCampaign/status/1512556412244742144?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp...
Do I have to explain this one?
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1509546497850945543?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2md...
George P. Bush getting pretty feisty in his attacks against Ken Paxton.
https://twitter.com/georgepbush/status/1511070300334612487?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2md...
Vidal Martinez launches an attack against the grandfather of his primary opponent for Harris County Judge (Alexandra del Moral Mealer).
https://twitter.com/CurrentRevolt/status/1512801296188788740?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2...
An elementary school in Austin ISD (wow what a shocker) held a pride parade.
https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1505974253023203328?s=20&t=siM1u986U...

[Pink Panther]

The latest news in tweets:

Beto came out in support of ending Title 42, yet another nail in the coffin for his campaign.
https://twitter.com/AbbottCampaign/status/1512556412244742144?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp...
Do I have to explain this one?
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1509546497850945543?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2md...
George P. Bush getting pretty feisty in his attacks against Ken Paxton.
https://twitter.com/georgepbush/status/1511070300334612487?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2md...
Vidal Martinez launches an attack against the grandfather of his primary opponent for Harris County Judge (Alexandra del Moral Mealer).
https://twitter.com/CurrentRevolt/status/1512801296188788740?s=20&t=5Z2K4rp2...

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

[Real Texan Politics]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

[Roll Roons]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden immigration policies hurts D's in TX/FL and Beto is to the left of Biden on amnesty and Guns anyways

Abbott wins l55/45 like he did over Valdez,GAME OVER

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

[Real Texan Politics]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

[Calthrina950]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

[Real Texan Politics]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

I mean I was joking about him running again but I do agree with that argument. The question of course being is Beto succeeding at that?

[Calthrina950]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

I mean I was joking about him running again but I do agree with that argument. The question of course being is Beto succeeding at that?

I'm not sure. Turnout in Texas, as in the rest of the country, was up massively in 2020, compared to 2016 and all preceding elections. Yet Trump still won by over 600,000 votes, and Cornyn won by more than a million votes. Moreover, Trump got a significantly higher number of raw votes in the Rio Grande Valley, which has long been the most Democratic region of the state. Texas's urban and suburban areas certainly have shifted left and are continuing to do so, but the trends in the Valley and among Hispanics in general ought to be concerning to Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As one of my friends said stop beating a tired horse it's OVER in TX
.

It's a 303 2012/2016/2018/2020 and 2010/14 it was a 235 map because Rs had Supermajority it's WI PA and MI the war in Ukraine gonna have to end before the Election in order for D's to win TX and it's an oil state like AK and want Biden to open up Keystone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I feel sorry for Beto, Crist, Nan W there all raising on Act Blue and they're all gonna lose in a 303 map and they want us to donate and they stopped Stimulus checks in lieu of Ukraine

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

He and deBlasio seem to have massive public humiliation fetishes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ukraine war has made the oil states like TX and AK even more anyways due to Biden implementing Keystone anyways , but is this a cause to give up on the Election no, we don't need but the big three anyways and Rs still favor tax cuts for the Wealthy, that's why Boris Johnson whom support Tax cuts has a 33/61 APPROVALS

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sometimes I think Beto is just playing The Campaign Trail and self-sabotaging to see just how badly he can do.

He's basically running a campaign only appealing to Austin. I don't think that would work well in much of the rest of the state. Certainly won't help him in the already rapidly R trending RGV.

I feel like he knows he has no shot so he just doesn't give a f**k anymore and says whatever comes to his mind.

Beto's campaign seems like more of an effort to try and help Dems boost turnout long term rather than a serious chance at victory, which is probably the smart thing to do for 2022.

Turnout for Beto's next 3 runs?

This argument-that O'Rourke is trying to build up the Democratic Party's infrastructure within Texas-was also made in 2018 when he ran against Cruz.

I mean I was joking about him running again but I do agree with that argument. The question of course being is Beto succeeding at that?

I'm not sure. Turnout in Texas, as in the rest of the country, was up massively in 2020, compared to 2016 and all preceding elections. Yet Trump still won by over 600,000 votes, and Cornyn won by more than a million votes. Moreover, Trump got a significantly higher number of raw votes in the Rio Grande Valley, which has long been the most Democratic region of the state. Texas's urban and suburban areas certainly have shifted left and are continuing to do so, but the trends in the Valley and among Hispanics in general ought to be concerning to Democrats.

I would say yes, it's just that the GOP's efforts have also been strong. Is there more Dems could've done in 2020 to get out the vote in Texas? Definitely. But Texas was never a front-line battleground to begin with. 100k additional votes singlehandedly out of Dallas and Travis counties a piece is quite impressive.

Ultimately the RGV is not going to be a key part of Dems winning coalition in Texas even though it was the bluest area for a while. First off beyond the high Hispanic population, there's not much that makes the region so Democratic to begin with. Secondly, it's already relatively small and growing slower than the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto wants to be relevant again and he saught higher office again because Biden isn't gonna put him in his Cabinet, he thought Voting Rights was gonna pass and it didn't that's why he is losing, he put all his eggs on Sinema doing the right thing and she didn't, that's why Abbott is gonna win by 55/45

[Real Texan Politics]

Massive news from Harris County!
https://twitter.com/AlexMealer4HCTX/status/1513580379504054272?s=20&t=IKar09...

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah I'm surprised I voted Likely R earlier, it feels more like Safe R, honestly.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Massive news from Harris County!
https://twitter.com/AlexMealer4HCTX/status/1513580379504054272?s=20&t=IKar09...

I would not be shocked if she lost.

[Real Texan Politics]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

[Calthrina950]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

This is certainly true. Cornyn and Abbott won it as late as 2014, and even Ted Cruz carried it in his first race back in 2012. Biden only marginally improved there compared to Hillary Clinton, a major reason why Trump comfortably held Texas in 2020. And Hidalgo, who has never been a strong or particularly popular incumbent, was swept in by the 2018 wave.