Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a gut feeling now a blue wave is blossoms already we ALREADY saw it in AK and NY 19 there is a lag between Biden Approvals and state by state polls Beto will win

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

Because the Texas of 2022 isn't the Texas of the 90s? It's still a lean R state but it's not some conservative bastion anymore and "swing voters" actually care about gun control measures.

The people who support gun control were already voting Democrats. No one is a single issue anti-gun voter, they are likely to be liberal on most other issues. However, a state like Texas there are many people who will be turned off by that. It's not even like it's just a policy in his platform. Beto is making gun control the cornerstone of his campaign and seems to be embracing his "Hell yes" comments and that will likely hurt him.

So you're saying this race would be a tossup right now if he never made the comments & didn't make gun control a central part of his campaign?

Considering very few people think he has a chance to win this year, with or without the comments, might as well stand your ground and perhaps persuade some hearts and minds.

Personally, I like that he's owning and embracing his comments rather than cowering and coming off as feckless. Especially after the events of Uvalde.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance and must trayed at such nut Biden polls are increasing and we can overperform in VBM just like we did in AK and NY Biden can be at 50 percent in EDay and VBM is starting at the end of September they just won't be tabulated until EDay

[Duke of York]

I have a gut feeling now a blue wave is blossoms already we ALREADY saw it in AK and NY 19 there is a lag between Biden Approvals and state by state polls Beto will win

I very much hope your right. Flipping Texas would be huge.

[wbrocks67]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

[Duke of York]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

Its a very good strategy. No county should be ignored and no district should be uncontested.

[NewYorkExpress]

Beto O'Rourke was apparently hospitalized with a bacterial infection.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1563981543487553536?cxt=HHwWgIC-7a27sLQrA...

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1563981544544509952

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter now he's destined to lose its a 303 map

[Real Texan Politics]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

It's interesting he is pulling crowds in rural red areas. He's been promoting a lot of videos of R voters switching to support him which is smart. I wonder how many actually flip to him.

A lot of them probably voted for Biden in 2020. Maybe it helps his margins in the big suburbs, but not as much in the rurals.

[Duke of York]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

It's interesting he is pulling crowds in rural red areas. He's been promoting a lot of videos of R voters switching to support him which is smart. I wonder how many actually flip to him.

A lot of them probably voted for Biden in 2020. Maybe it helps his margins in the big suburbs, but not as much in the rurals.

what is your evidence for this?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

It's interesting he is pulling crowds in rural red areas. He's been promoting a lot of videos of R voters switching to support him which is smart. I wonder how many actually flip to him.

A lot of them probably voted for Biden in 2020. Maybe it helps his margins in the big suburbs, but not as much in the rurals.

what is your evidence for this?

I feel like people stereotype that all swing voters live in these high education suburbs, when in reality there are a lot of swingy voters in rural areas, but Dems tend to lose rural areas by so much it electorally never is as prominent

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Got an ad from Greg Abbott. He talked about how he waited tables and said that hard work was important. He said he would invest in education, the energy future of Texas, and keep taxes low to help families.
Interesting messaging.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said these red states need to be watched Blk and brown and single female vote

Polls don't overstam0le too many whites but not enough single person

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Got an ad from Greg Abbott. He talked about how he waited tables and said that hard work was important. He said he would invest in education, the energy future of Texas, and keep taxes low to help families.
Interesting messaging.

Texas has the worst school funding in the country.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's win the H we will win OH, FL and TX Gov that's how Ds political fortunes have changed

[wbrocks67]

I could buy this becoming a real race. Abbott is becoming insanely ghoulish at this point.

https://twitter.com/0liviajulianna/status/1565858488177270784

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They haven't polled this race recently and we have had so many polls

[wbrocks67]

I don't imagine this is a PAC in favor of Abbott

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1568022886908313600

[ProgressiveModerate]

So apparently Republican State Sen Kel Seliger of district 31 will back Mike Collier over Dan Patrick. He’s been quite an outspoken moderate in the State Senate despite literally coming from like a Trump + 50 pandhandle district that has 0 chance of becoming competitive like ever. He’s been quite modera ye on other issues too and was very proactive after the Ugalde shooting. Kudos to their man for like doing his actual job

Just note he is not running for re-election.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1568216448291454976

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's win the H, TX, OH and FL will flip blue only if D's win the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's win the H, TX, OH and FL will flip blue only if D's win the H

[Real Texan Politics]

If D's win the H, TX, OH and FL will flip blue only if D's win the H

Which they won’t so neither of those are flipping.

Actually even if the dems barely held onto the house, neither of those would flip. It would take a blue tsunami (which is practically impossible, even come November), for any of those states to flip, and even then it would be extremely narrow.

But of course I’m arguing with you so…

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

Yeah it's unlikely Dems win any of the TX row offices in November, but how close they are will likely have pretty huge implications on how seriously Dems take TX in 2024 and also how they campaign.