Florida 2022 Megathread

[2016]

New Florida Registration Numbers:

Republicans 5,135,749

Democrats 4,959,838

Minor Parties  255,510

No Party Affiliation  3,865,575

Republican Advantage: 175,911

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats abandoning Florida. Democrats lost about 80,000 Voters in the last 3 Months in the Sunshine State.

It soon will become virtually impossible for Crist & Demings to win.

Voter registration numbers tend to be a bit iffy, especially since they can lag decades behind re-alignment in regions such as the panhandle. Still not a good sign for Dems but it really doesn't mean much unless one is actually seeing an acceleration in Republicans favor.

When DeSantis was sworn in as Governor in January 2019 Democrats had a 280,000 Reg Advantage, at the Book Closings just before the 2020 that was cut to 136,000 or so and now Republicans, after taking the lead in Registration at the back end of last year are up 175K.

This is a Major Realignment in FL!

[ProgressiveModerate]

New Florida Registration Numbers:

Republicans 5,135,749

Democrats 4,959,838

Minor Parties  255,510

No Party Affiliation  3,865,575

Republican Advantage: 175,911

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats abandoning Florida. Democrats lost about 80,000 Voters in the last 3 Months in the Sunshine State.

It soon will become virtually impossible for Crist & Demings to win.

Voter registration numbers tend to be a bit iffy, especially since they can lag decades behind re-alignment in regions such as the panhandle. Still not a good sign for Dems but it really doesn't mean much unless one is actually seeing an acceleration in Republicans favor.

When DeSantis was sworn in as Governor in January 2019 Democrats had a 280,000 Reg Advantage, at the Book Closings just before the 2020 that was cut to 136,000 or so and now Republicans, after taking the lead in Registration at the back end of last year are up 175K.

This is a Major Realignment in FL!

The registration advantage has been going in favour of the GOP for quite a while in Florida. Party registration isn't a very good indicator of a states politics at any given moment.

Also, re-alignment implies a majour change in coalitions whereas it seems like the GOPs gains have been mostly through growth and just a general increase in polarization. They're coalition is predominantly white, many retirees, and cubans as has been the case for a long time now.

[Politician]

New Florida Registration Numbers:

Republicans 5,135,749

Democrats 4,959,838

Minor Parties  255,510

No Party Affiliation  3,865,575

Republican Advantage: 175,911

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats abandoning Florida. Democrats lost about 80,000 Voters in the last 3 Months in the Sunshine State.

It soon will become virtually impossible for Crist & Demings to win.

OC/Minnesota Mike trying to rationalize how DeSantis will still lose

[2016]

@lee more vulnerable than Fetterman,

February 2022

Democrats  5,045,849

May 2022

Democrats 4,959,838

Democrats lost 86,011 Voters from March 1st to May 31st!!!

By Comparision

Republicans had their highest Registration Totals at 5,145,983 at the end of March (March 31st to be precise) which is now down to 5,135,749 or about 10,000.

So, while Republicans take some minor losses Democrats have lost almost 26-27K Voters over the last 3 months.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about how many Rs are registered

[2016]

Who cares about how many Rs are registered

You should care about it. Republicans have about 750,000 more Supervoters in the State and I can guarantee you they will all turn out to vote in November to reelect DeSantis.

Crist is DONE here!

[2016]

The Republican Party in Florida has once again expanded their Voter Registration Advantage over their Democratic Counterparts according to the newest figures:

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1545092330658697216

Republican Advantage: 198,531

[ajc0918]

I personally don't think voter reg matters as much as people think because most young people register with no party affiliation but still lean democratic.

[2016]

I personally don't think voter reg matters as much as people think because most young people register with no party affiliation but still lean democratic.

Nelson & Gillum won Independents by Double Digits in 2018 YET they still lost the State because the Party ID per Exit Polls was R+6 in Florida.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I personally don't think voter reg matters as much as people think because most young people register with no party affiliation but still lean democratic.

Nelson & Gillum won Independents by Double Digits in 2018 YET they still lost the State because the Party ID per Exit Polls was R+6 in Florida.

It is worth noting that in Florida, Republicans are far more reliable voters than Dems in general, especially in off years. Even if you want to make the argument Dems theoretically have the numbers to win without having to do insanely well with Independents, that just practically doesn't happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist has a small lead in FL it doesn't matter about registering, Crist lead in two polls 51/49 I have it Tilt D just like OH Sen and Franken and Beto are down only 5🤩🤩🤩

[2016]

I personally don't think voter reg matters as much as people think because most young people register with no party affiliation but still lean democratic.

Nelson & Gillum won Independents by Double Digits in 2018 YET they still lost the State because the Party ID per Exit Polls was R+6 in Florida.

It is worth noting that in Florida, Republicans are far more reliable voters than Dems in general, especially in off years. Even if you want to make the argument Dems theoretically have the numbers to win without having to do insanely well with Independents, that just practically doesn't happen.

Yeah, I trend to agree with you. Also, it isn't just the Registration Numbers

Money talks in this Race too:

Cash on Hand
Ron DeSantis $116 M
Charlie Crist $6M

There is a reason the DGA (Democratic Governors Association) did not reserve any big Fall Advertising in Florida this year.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democratic Primary debate last night.

I have to say, Charlie Crist might actually lose this primary. Fried really tore into him on his past with the Republican Party, calling him a fake Democrat, calling out his flip-flopping on abortion, calling out Crist's past support from the NRA.

[2016]

Republican Registration Edge in Florida BALOONS over 200K

Republicans 5,157,343

Democrats 4,955,022

Minor Parties  256,413

No Party Affiliation  3,887,406

Republican Advantage: 202,321

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

P. S. Keep in mind though that these Numbers are from the Florida SoS Office and are about 20 Days delayed so as of today Republicans are more likely having close to a 220K Advantage.

There are Reports Republicans are out-registering Democrats in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Orange Couties with Miami & Orange being the most significant. Why? If we see a GOP Latino Surge in FL on November 8th you will see it first in Dade & Orange Counties.

If you look at it from a Historical Perspective particularly ORANGE COUNTY (Orlando) was a "Swing County" during the Elections of George W. Bush in 2000 & 2004. If this County starts to swing back I'd say sayonara to Democrats.

[goin bezerk]

Does Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in 2014.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist is leading in the polls 51/49

[UWS]

Democratic Primary debate last night.

I have to say, Charlie Crist might actually lose this primary. Fried really tore into him on his past with the Republican Party, calling him a fake Democrat, calling out his flip-flopping on abortion, calling out Crist's past support from the NRA.

The moreover that in 2006, Crist attended a fundraiser hosted by, guess who... DONALD J. TRUMP.

https://www.judicialwatch.org/florida-attorney-general-hot-water/

Even during his time as Congressman, Crist sucked up to Trump as Crist voted in favor of approving $1.6 billion to build Trump's Border Wall even when he opposes the wall that is a main component of Trump's agenda.

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/florida-democrat-charlie-crist-votes-to-fund-trumps-border-wall-with-mexico-9530153

https://twitter.com/AllisonNielsen/status/890699437994983424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

https://twitter.com/JenniferShutt/status/890687787296575489?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL IS WAVE INSURANCE ITS NOT A MUST WIN FOR DS, but we will see next month how FL 13 goes Eric Lynn is now tied with Luna

[2016]

FLORIDA PRIMARY AUGUST 23RD 2022
EARLY VOTE TOTALS as of July 24th 2022 8am

Republicans 44,674

Democrats 39,496

Minor Parties 1,506

No Party Affiliation  16,513

Total Vote: 102,189

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

This is all VBM Vote and it's very, very early and might mean nothing in the grand sheme of things.

However considering that Democrats have competitive Statewide Primaries in FL and Republicans do not the Early VBM Returns are disappointing.

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA PRIMARY AUGUST 23RD 2022
EARLY VOTE TOTALS as of July 24th 2022 8am

Republicans 44,674

Democrats 39,496

Minor Parties 1,506

No Party Affiliation  16,513

Total Vote: 102,189

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

This is all VBM Vote and it's very, very early and might mean nothing in the grand sheme of things.

However considering that Democrats have competitive Statewide Primaries in FL and Republicans do not the Early VBM Returns are disappointing.

A) EV literally just started, and mail in ballots *just* went out didn't they?
B) isn't FL an open primary state? Given that young people are likely more often registering as Indies, I'd wait to see how that vote turns out

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another factor to consider is in Florida you have a lot of retirees who VBM. In 2020 when Trump was trying to discourage VBM in most states, there's a reason he tried to encourage it in Florida. A lot of these numbers will be stuff we look back it in hindsight as either good or bad.

[2016]

Another factor to consider is in Florida you have a lot of retirees who VBM. In 2020 when Trump was trying to discourage VBM in most states, there's a reason he tried to encourage it in Florida. A lot of these numbers will be stuff we look back it in hindsight as either good or bad.

According to that Website when you look at VBM Requested they have almost 4M of that Vote requested. I can assure you that the Florida Primary on August 23rd won't have 4M Total Votes. You have to take these VBM Requests with a huge grain of salt.

2018 FL Primary Total Votes:

Republicans 1,618,013 Total Votes

Democrats 1,508,984 Total Votes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Florida_gubernatorial_election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see what happens in FL13 in a few weeks, Eric Lynn was leading 45/43 after trailing

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The primary elections are not just for party primaries, at least in Miami Dade August is also when we elect our county judges and school board members. So the lack of a competitive R statewide primary is not really much of a factor here

[Senator Spark]

I fully expect Crist to keep this close by winning over disaffected moderates in the I-4 corridor. He could easy expand on Gillum's 2018 margin in Pinellas due to his home turf boost there. Certainly, DeSantis' COVID response did not help among moderates, but I can see suburbanites voting GOP this time due to inflation running rampant. In the end, I think this one is competitive.