Florida 2022 Megathread

[Mr.Phips]

Charlie's running

Is the Florida governor mansion like just a really nice place to live ? Why does the man so want to be governor again ?

A 10% chance at winning a Gubernatorial race, is better than a 5% chance at winning a house seat after redistricting.

You seem absolutely certain that Republicans will cut St Pete out of the Pinellas district. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What an idiot!!! If HR1 passes his seat will be about the same partisanship. Now his seat will probably flip regardless of whether we pass HR1 or not. Thanks a lot Charlie!

[Biden his time]

Armchair Analysis:

Crist would likely lose in the general by 4 - 6% approximately (6 - 8% if Cubans keep swinging Republican). He's a swamp creature that the vast majority of Floridians don't like. May as well run DWS.

Fried needs to attempt to hold her place as Agriculture Commissioner. She'd likely lose by some 2 - 4% (4 - 6% if Cubans keep swinging Republican) if she tried running against DeSantis.


Only people who have a fighting chance are people on the outside like John Morgan who know how to run campaigns. Everyone knows who John Morgan is and he isn't hated, and also he was able to pass his amendment for Medical Marijuana with good politicking.


On a related note, though, here's my prediction:



Run from him, hide from him, Electoral Juggernaut Wayne Messam arrives all the same.

[Sir Mohamed]

Charlie's running

Ugh. The dude is opening up a potentially competitive House seat for suicidal run 4 gov?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Charlie's running

Ugh. The dude is opening up a potentially competitive House seat for suicidal run 4 gov?

This is wave insurance state, users don't get that Covid and the Economy can be a boom next yr

[sting in the rafters]

Why is Crist running another money-pit campaign when he's already failed statewide, DeSantis is shaping up to be as-strong-if-not-stronger than Scott in 2014, and he's leaving a vulnerable house district? Guy needs to learn his lesson.

[Utah Neolib]

Crist will be the governor of Florida in 2023

[MT Treasurer]

Crist's performance in 2014 was actually very respectable given the environment & the fact that every other statewide race was a double-digit GOP blowout. I wouldn’t expect him to win, but also wouldn’t underestimate him or completely write him off. Republicans are very much favored, but this state certainly isn’t less competitive than IA or OH (either for Senate or Governor).

[Xing]

Crist's performance in 2014 was actually very respectable given the environment & the fact that every other statewide race was a double-digit GOP blowout. I wouldn’t expect him to win, but also wouldn’t underestimate him or completely write him off. Republicans are very much favored, but this state certainly isn’t less competitive than IA or OH (either for Senate or Governor).

One key factor, though, was that Scott was very unpopular in 2014, and that’s not true of DeSantis at the moment. I agree that the FL races will be closer than the ones in IA/OH, and I don’t buy that DeSantis and Rubio will get authoritarian NUT maps, but I don’t think Crist, whose performances since 2016 haven’t been that impressive, would have much of a chance or would be a particularly strong candidate, especially given that he’d be running as a former Governor who already lost a gubernatorial race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist's performance in 2014 was actually very respectable given the environment & the fact that every other statewide race was a double-digit GOP blowout. I wouldn’t expect him to win, but also wouldn’t underestimate him or completely write him off. Republicans are very much favored, but this state certainly isn’t less competitive than IA or OH (either for Senate or Governor).

One key factor, though, was that Scott was very unpopular in 2014, and that’s not true of DeSantis at the moment. I agree that the FL races will be closer than the ones in IA/OH, and I don’t buy that DeSantis and Rubio will get authoritarian NUT maps, but I don’t think Crist, whose performances since 2016 haven’t been that impressive, would have much of a chance or would be a particularly strong candidate, especially given that he’d be running as a former Governor who already lost a gubernatorial race.

The problem for DeSantis is that he hasn't brought any new Afro Americans into the fold since his narrow loss to Gillium,Afro Americans make up 15% of the vote and of course it's a VBM vote not same day voting

If CRIST wins, it will split it votes between Rubio and CRIST, just like OH in 2018 split it's votes between DeWine and Brown

[Real Texan Politics]

Crist will be the governor of Florida in 2023

We'll quote you on that when you're wrong

And y'all may as well quote me on this if I'm wrong...

Or maybe it won't be Crist or DeSantis and it'll end up being Fried for all we know.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Safe R until QU polls this race, I don't trust polling until we have that poll

[AlterEgo]

Armchair Analysis:

Crist would likely lose in the general by 4 - 6% approximately (6 - 8% if Cubans keep swinging Republican). He's a swamp creature that the vast majority of Floridians don't like. May as well run DWS.

Fried needs to attempt to hold her place as Agriculture Commissioner. She'd likely lose by some 2 - 4% (4 - 6% if Cubans keep swinging Republican) if she tried running against DeSantis.


Only people who have a fighting chance are people on the outside like John Morgan who know how to run campaigns. Everyone knows who John Morgan is and he isn't hated, and also he was able to pass his amendment for Medical Marijuana with good politicking.

Fried would be a decided underdog in an effort to be reelected to ag commissioner, especially if it's against Wilton Simpson. If you're going to lose either way, may as well try your hand at the higher profile office.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

QU polls FL, and we need to wait for PPP or a QU poll to tell us about FL it's Lean R until such poll comes out since it had Biden at 48%

[President Johnson]

Crist's performance in 2014 was actually very respectable given the environment & the fact that every other statewide race was a double-digit GOP blowout. I wouldn’t expect him to win, but also wouldn’t underestimate him or completely write him off. Republicans are very much favored, but this state certainly isn’t less competitive than IA or OH (either for Senate or Governor).

Well, Alex Sink could make the same case. And wasn't Scott actually very unpopular in his first term? Scott just made a comeback in the final weeks of the 2014 campaign. Or at least people started paying attention to the election. Anyway, I don't see DeSantis losing unless he gets tainted by a major scandal.

[SnowLabrador]

Crist's performance in 2014 was actually very respectable given the environment & the fact that every other statewide race was a double-digit GOP blowout. I wouldn’t expect him to win, but also wouldn’t underestimate him or completely write him off. Republicans are very much favored, but this state certainly isn’t less competitive than IA or OH (either for Senate or Governor).

Well, Alex Sink could make the same case. And wasn't Scott actually very unpopular in his first term? Scott just made a comeback in the final weeks of the 2014 campaign. Or at least people started paying attention to the election. Anyway, I don't see DeSantis losing unless he gets tainted by a major scandal.

There have been numerous scandals involving DeSantis, it's just that they don't matter electorally because he's a Republican.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's Safe R until QU polls this race, I don't trust polling until we have that poll

Really? Maybe if the Democrat is in excess of leading DeSantis by twenty points or so, maybe it'll equal a <1% victory for that Democrat.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Florida Dems should just focus exclusively on getting their act together and flipping the governorship by 2030 for the next redistricting.  If JBE and Beshear can get through, they can get somebody through in 28-32 years (the 2026-30 term would also be more valuable than the 2022-26 term because it has 3/7 state supreme court appointments assuming no early retirements). 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Safe R until QU polls this race, I don't trust polling until we have that poll

Really? Maybe if the Democrat is in excess of leading DeSantis by twenty points or so, maybe it'll equal a <1% victory for that Democrat.

I haven't made my Predictions yet, whenever the new maps come out, none of the Moderators will tell us when they are coming out, but FL Senate just passed voter suppression laws. Rubio will win no matter what

Grayson or Stephanie Murphy or Val Deming's are too Socialisic to win, CRIST can make it competetive, split vote

[2016]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

[Skill and Chance]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She wasn't gonna run against Rubio, Rubio is safe and last poll had DeSantis tied with Fried

[2016]

She wasn't gonna run against Rubio, Rubio is safe and last poll had DeSantis tied with Fried

That last Poll who had DeSantis and Fried tied which I seriously doubt is the same Poll who told us Biden would win Pinellas County by Double Digits. Fried is 10 Points behind DeSantis at least if not even more.

[2016]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

Well, good luck to Demings running as a former House Impeachment Manager IN Trump Country. FL is Trump Country. Trump won FL by a bigger margin last year than George W. Bush in his Re-Election 2004. FL isn't a Swing State anymore.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

Well, good luck to Demings running as a former House Impeachment Manager IN Trump Country. FL is Trump Country. Trump won FL by a bigger margin last year than George W. Bush in his Re-Election 2004. FL isn't a Swing State anymore.

[/b]
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh? What reality are you in?