Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Birdish]

The Cygnal poll is indicating the race to be under a point, again.

Do you have a link by chance?

The only thing I can find is a poll from June by them.

[wbrocks67]

The Cygnal poll is indicating the race to be under a point, again.

Do you have a link by chance?

The only thing I can find is a poll from June by them.

Yeah, I think they were mistaken. The only one I see is the June one too.

[EastwoodS]

The Cygnal poll is indicating the race to be under a point, again.

Do you have a link by chance?

The only thing I can find is a poll from June by them.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/62b0d289831aea152bd.....

[Birdish]

The Cygnal poll is indicating the race to be under a point, again.

Do you have a link by chance?

The only thing I can find is a poll from June by them.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/62b0d289831aea152bd.....

Oh, thats the Co/efficent poll that got posted earlier. Was wondering if a separate Cygnal poll had gotten released in the mean time.

[Gass3268]

Michael Adams is like unofficially endorsing Beshar in this ad.

https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1717591939824877583?s=46

[MT Treasurer]

Cameron is going to lose women big time — he had better hope enough men notice their wives'/girlfriends' *political* affection for Beshear just in time, but it’s not looking good..

[ReallySuper]

just saw this ad on tv lmao

that certainly was... an attempt... i guess

[wbrocks67]

just saw this ad on tv lmao

that certainly was... an attempt... i guess

God, Cameron is just so objectively... mediocre lol. A paper bag has more charisma than this man.

[EastwoodS]

Michael Adams is like unofficially endorsing Beshar in this ad.

https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1717591939824877583?s=46

I've been paying close attention to him; he is the best Republican on the ticket, He will get a good chunk of Democrats, including many moderates and liberals. His win will be the biggest.

[Dr. MB]

The Cygnal poll is indicating the race to be under a point, again.

Do you have a link by chance?

The only thing I can find is a poll from June by them.

(Snip)

Could you please trim your URL so it doesn’t stretch the page?

[EastwoodS]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

[SnowLabrador]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

That doesn't surprise me. And I'm not saying that just because I'm a "doomer", but rather because of both the Louisiana results and the fact that partisanship often kicks in in red states. I'm sticking with my prediction of Beshear +2, but I would not be that surprised to see him lose.

[Octowakandi]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

Is it because of any reason at all or just partisanship kicking back in?

[EastwoodS]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

Is it because of any reason at all or just partisanship kicking back in?

Oh, definitely the partisan nature of the state.

[Duke of York]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

That doesn't surprise me. And I'm not saying that just because I'm a "doomer", but rather because of both the Louisiana results and the fact that partisanship often kicks in in red states. I'm sticking with my prediction of Beshear +2, but I would not be that surprised to see him lose.

You always doom. If Beshear loses it will prove approval rating means nothing.

Louisiana has nothing to do with this election. Democrats didn’t even try there.

[wbrocks67]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

That doesn't surprise me. And I'm not saying that just because I'm a "doomer", but rather because of both the Louisiana results and the fact that partisanship often kicks in in red states. I'm sticking with my prediction of Beshear +2, but I would not be that surprised to see him lose.

You always doom. If Beshear loses it will prove approval rating means nothing.

Louisiana has nothing to do with this election. Democrats didn’t even try there.

It's wild to me that anyone thinks LA is an apt comparison. Democrats literally got outspent like 26:1.

[MT Treasurer]

I’ve long believed that MS and KY will vote a lot closer to one another than many people here realize (regardless of who wins each race).

[EastwoodS]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

[Alben Barkley]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

That doesn't surprise me. And I'm not saying that just because I'm a "doomer", but rather because of both the Louisiana results and the fact that partisanship often kicks in in red states. I'm sticking with my prediction of Beshear +2, but I would not be that surprised to see him lose.

You always doom. If Beshear loses it will prove approval rating means nothing.

Louisiana has nothing to do with this election. Democrats didn’t even try there.

It's wild to me that anyone thinks LA is an apt comparison. Democrats literally got outspent like 26:1.

Also there was no popular incumbent running. It's more like what happened in Maryland or Massachusetts last year than anything comparable to Kentucky this year.

[wbrocks67]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

[EastwoodS]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

The really D ones have him 50-52. The other ones have him around 46-49. and most undecideds in the polls will probably break for Cameron 7/10 times.

[Roll Roons]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

The really D ones have him 50-52. The other ones have him around 46-49. and most undecideds in the polls will probably break for Cameron 7/10 times.

The only somewhat recent independent poll was from Emerson, which had him at 49. All the others were from Republican groups. Let's see at least one more independent poll.

[EastwoodS]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

The really D ones have him 50-52. The other ones have him around 46-49. and most undecideds in the polls will probably break for Cameron 7/10 times.

The only somewhat recent independent poll was from Emerson, which had him at 49. All the others were from Republican groups. Let's see at least one more independent poll.

[/b] agreed. I found the Emerson one weird, not only for the margin and Cameron at 33%, but if the poll can be D+16 why can't you at least, ATLEAST put Beshear over 50%? instead, they choose 49%. lol, ok, trasherson.

[Birdish]

I could see the polling being off. We've seen enough democrats being overestimated after all. But its at least worth mentioning that the polling from 2019 didn't have a large Beshear bias(outside of that ridiculous Targoz poll).

[EastwoodS]

I could see the polling being off. We've seen enough democrats being overestimated after all. But its at least worth mentioning that the polling from 2019 didn't have a large Beshear bias(outside of that ridiculous Targoz poll).

2019, earlier in the race, heavily overestimated him, however, polling finally brought the averages closer as the election neared.
In 2023, one pollster that stands out to me is Garin-Hart Young, they have the race at Beshear 52-44. This same pollster had Amy McGrath beating Barr in 2018 51-44. The averages for that race in 2018, with all polls included, was 47-45 McGrath. So Kentucky really is a hard state to poll, conservatives just will not talk to pollsters.