OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just want users to don't forget Strickland was Gov, the only reason why IA won't flip and FL or TX won't go D because white females are gonna vote for all Rs except DeWine especially DeSantis he gets huge support from white females but Demings is competitive and leading by 4

Nan Whaley been double digits behind so long and then she now is tied, so users act like DeWine and Vance are a shoe in, Ryan is blanketing the airwaves he has over 9M dollars, Sherrod Brown says his reelection is dependent on Ryan, if Vance wins Josh Mandel will surely run against him but he said that won't happen Anyways
.
Strickland and Brown both endorsed RYAN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the Time D's get excited for D's it's Football season many Ds are Students too and Root for Ohio Buckeyes

We don't have Justin Fields but they are a Bowl team no matter what the Ohio State Bucks are the same as University of Miami was in early 2000s it's a College Football State

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball moved this race from Likely R to Lean R today.  This sentence caught my eye:

Our understanding is that private polling in the race is good for Ryan and that an internal poll released several weeks ago by Ryan’s campaign showing him leading 48%-45% may actually understate his advantage compared to unreleased surveys on both sides.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-august-24-2022/

[Nyvin]

The ONE THING that might actually cause Ryan to win this would be low turnout Trump voters not showing up to vote in a midterm in large enough numbers.   Probably the single key factor to Ryan's chances.

[politicallefty]

I think a serious investment in this race is worthwhile not just for the Senate, but also for the House. There are three highly competitive House seats in Ohio (OH-01, OH-09, OH-13). If Democrats can sweep them, it'd be a net gain out of the state. There's also the OH Supreme Court, which most of us who follow redistricting should know about by now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're all gonna vote soon enough urban vote VBM is Oct 1 thru 31 and Rural vote Nov 8th they just won't be tabulated until EDay but the D vote will go to Ryan like it did Brown that's why I have it Tilt D
It won't matter about an R wave catching fire because it's VBM and even if Oz closes the gap all those Fetterman votes gonna be banked in the VBM just like it did Pat Ryan and it will go to Tim Ryan

Same with Crist and Gwen Graham those Early vote gonna be banked for them

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017

Jesus Christ. They're using the same vocabulary as Putin in Ukraine? They don't even try to hide anymore, aren't they? And did he actually call for rape? The party of "law and order" and "family values" strikes again.

It's just too unfortunate it won't change much, remains a Likely Republican race.

[windjammer]

I really have Indiana 2012 vibes. An above average democrat candidate who decided to run because they destroyed his district with a ing bad republican candidate.

I don't think that should be enough but After all Donnelly overperformed Obama by 15 points sooooo

[President Johnson]

I really have Indiana 2012 vibes. An above average democrat candidate who decided to run because they destroyed his district with a ing bad republican candidate.

I don't think that should be enough but After all Donnelly overperformed Obama by 15 points sooooo

You could be onto something, though things have changed from a decade ago. In terms of polarization, it has gotten worse and states more partisan. Let's be honest, Akin in Missouri and Murdock in Indiana would win this year, or would have won in 2020.

[windjammer]

I really have Indiana 2012 vibes. An above average democrat candidate who decided to run because they destroyed his district with a ing bad republican candidate.

I don't think that should be enough but After all Donnelly overperformed Obama by 15 points sooooo

You could be onto something, though things have changed from a decade ago. In terms of polarization, it has gotten worse and states more partisan. Let's be honest, Akin in Missouri and Murdock in Indiana would win this year, or would have won in 2020.

Honestly this is from a foreigner perspective but I have the feeling that polarization has been decreasing a bit since Trump left the White House.


Who would have imagined ten years ago that Obama would have passed a massive part of his agenda thanks to the republicans giving him the necessary votes because not his full caucus was on board? (Talking about his infrastructure plan)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone know Traggy and Emerson have R House effects, how is Fetterman leading in PA and Biden is trailing Trump in the same poll everyone says Traggy and Emerson are Gold Standards because they have Vance ahead it's no question Traggy is trying to prop up Vance failing campaign Ryan had the exact 5 pt lead 2 wks ago Ryan 46/41 now Vance 50/45 this is a pivotal race 5 pts is still MOE like it or not

It's not over with the same with DeWine poll how is he ahead 52/37 what happened to the other 11% it's supposed to be 52/48

This proves Emerson has an R bias too they have Fetterman ahead and Trump ahead of Biden 47/42 that's no right Biden should be ahead 47/42

[Brittain33]

I really have Indiana 2012 vibes. An above average democrat candidate who decided to run because they destroyed his district with a ing bad republican candidate.

I don't think that should be enough but After all Donnelly overperformed Obama by 15 points sooooo

538 said a Democrat may be able to overperform baseline by 10 points, but 15 points is much harder. That’s why there’s a path for Ryan if it’s an average year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ryan had a narrow but real path before.
Now it's becoming wider. Vance isn't helping himself with things like this...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan had a narrow but real path before.
Now it's becoming wider. Vance isn't helping himself with things like this...

No, Emerson and Traggy polled the race and other pollsters polled the race when Ryan had the leaf 5/6 pts is within the margin of error 46/41 Ryan and 50/45 Vance is within MOE

Suffolk just contridicted Traggy NV poll showingg ars AHEAD in NV Suffolk has CCM up 7 Traggy had Laxalt up two it's within MOE CCM will win 51/48 and so will Ryan 51/48 and so will Kelly 51/48

[wbrocks67]

Good ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1562839155226382336

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017

If this is really a neutral year, Ryan really will win

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017

If this is really a neutral year, Ryan really will win

No. Ohio voted over 10 points to the right of the nation in both 2016 and 2020. It would have to be quite a favorable year for Dems for him to have a realistic shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017


Lol are you am gonna keep saying the samething SHERROD Brown WON IN 2018 AFTER Trump WON THE STATE AND BEAT RENACCI 52/47 IN 2018 RYAN WILL WIN YOUR R NUT MAP IS WRONG KELLY HAS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINNING

If this is really a neutral year, Ryan really will win

No. Ohio voted over 10 points to the right of the nation in both 2016 and 2020. It would have to be quite a favorable year for Dems for him to have a realistic shot.

Why should we listen to you and your R nut map is wrong look at the polls in the Database and Ryan was ahead 46/41 exactly two weeks ago by 5 just like Vance is no 50/45, 5 pts is MOE

Mary Peltola was supposed to lose to Palin in a Neutral year and so was Pat Ryan they overperformed

[Yoda]

I'm old enough to remember when any candidate for political office anywhere who called for anyone or any group of people to be raped would drop out of the race or be forced to drop out by their party. It won't even budge the race by 1 point now.

Also, "purge liberals from government?" You mean the majority party? The party that has won 7 of the last 9 presidential votes? Sounds to me like the minority wants to violently kill and imprison the majority b/c they can't win free elections. Straight up Nazi sh**t. No democrat could get away with saying we must "purge conservatives from government." There would instantly be nationwide scandal and calls from every level of government and every media organization for said democrat to resign or be removed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People want to declare this race over and we haven't even voted yet that's silly wait till the polls open in Nov  and then if Ryan, Beasley or Demings lose then Doom they haven't lost yet

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm old enough to remember when any candidate for political office anywhere who called for anyone or any group of people to be raped would drop out of the race or be forced to drop out by their party. It won't even budge the race by 1 point now.

Also, "purge liberals from government?" You mean the majority party? The party that has won 7 of the last 9 presidential votes? Sounds to me like the minority wants to violently kill and imprison the majority b/c they can't win free elections. Straight up Nazi sh**t. No democrat could get away with saying we must "purge conservatives from government." There would instantly be nationwide scandal and calls from every level of government and every media organization for said democrat to resign or be removed.

Tbf to Vance, HE didn't call for feminists to be raped -- he appeared on a show where the host had previously expressed those reprehensible views.  Not that it excuses the sentiment and I personally see Vance as a shifty opportunist, but it still seems like an important distinction to make. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017

If this is really a neutral year, Ryan really will win

No. Ohio voted over 10 points to the right of the nation in both 2016 and 2020. It would have to be quite a favorable year for Dems for him to have a realistic shot.

Sorry I disagree. Candidate quality isn't the only factor but it still matters. Ohio is not Red enough for someone like this to win even in a neutral environment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017

If this is really a neutral year, Ryan really will win

No. Ohio voted over 10 points to the right of the nation in both 2016 and 2020. It would have to be quite a favorable year for Dems for him to have a realistic shot.

Sorry I disagree. Candidate quality isn't the only factor but it still matters. Ohio is not Red enough for someone like this to win even in a neutral environment

Lol we won AK AL I'm a Neutral Environment and Palin was the Fav or Begich to win Cook and Sabato called it for Nick Begich we don't know whom is gonna turnout and still Dooming and we haven't voted yet wait 60 more days we will all find out it's wave insurance it means not automatic for either party

We won NY 19 and we were down 10 stop listening to Progressive Moderate he thinks WI and AZ are Lean R and every poll has Johnson and Masters behind

[wbrocks67]

Well, this could be completely wrong but Brown was able to win by 7 in a D+8.6 year, correct? So he underperformed the national baseline by ~2%.

So if this was a D+2 year, Ryan could... theoretically have a chance? Could be looking at that wrongly though.