OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Real Texan Politics]

Oh sh-
https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1521562262351364099?s=20&t=lby0CYVOCHi...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If it has any effect, which I doubt, it probably helps Mandel and hurts Vance at the margins

[BuckeyeNut]

If it has any effect, which I doubt, it probably helps Mandel and hurts Vance at the margins

I keep wondering how this race might have gone if the vast majority of the serious candidates weren't from the Cleveland-Akron area. Nobody in this race has a meaningful regional advantage of any kind save Vance, and his regional strength in the southwest will likely be tenuous at best. It will also be interesting to see if Appalachian GOP leaders' distaste for Vance carries over to rank and file voters in the primary. I suppose we will know soon enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is gonna win the nomination anyways he looks like Eric Trump

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rain in SOhio?

[Minnesota Mike]

I have no idea who wins this race (who can understand the minds of Republicans )but am rooting for Dolan even though he would be the R's best GE candidate because Dolan winning would piss off Trump.

[Senator Incitatus]

I have no idea who wins this race (who can understand the minds of Republicans )but am rooting for Dolan even though he would be the R's best GE candidate because Dolan winning would piss off Trump.

As has been said a few times, Dolan is the only candidate who could lose the general, since no candidate is losing a head-to-head race with Ryan.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Vance is gonna win the nomination anyways he looks like Eric Trump

This is the best thing I’ve read maybe anywhere haha

[JMT]

To the surprise of no one:

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1521640046746558464?s=20&t=427cNwzirZ...

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521651670270283778?s=20&t=_bpsYxYDQJ8...

[Illini Moderate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521651670270283778?s=20&t=_bpsYxYDQJ8...

Ughhhh really didn't want to see this asshat become a senator

[MT Treasurer]

Vance should win the general, but it probably won’t be by much more than Trump's margin even in a R wave. My early prediction is 53-44 or so, a very underwhelming result in a year like this. I also think he would have been in real danger of losing the seat in a D-leaning (and potentially even neutral) year.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Vance is a strong candidate and will win by 12-16%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Vance should win the general, but it probably won’t be by much more than Trump's margin even in a R wave. My early prediction is 53-44 or so, a very underwhelming result in a year like this. I also think he would have been in real danger of losing the seat in a D-leaning (and potentially even neutral) year.

What makes you think he's a weak candidate? He seems like a fairly strong candidate to me.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

So... how's that Dolan surge looking?

[Vosem]

Vance should win the general, but it probably won’t be by much more than Trump's margin even in a R wave. My early prediction is 53-44 or so, a very underwhelming result in a year like this. I also think he would have been in real danger of losing the seat in a D-leaning (and potentially even neutral) year.

What makes you think he's a weak candidate? He seems like a fairly strong candidate to me.

A pretty large number of campaign missteps, having a platform decently far from a Generic R platform, being held to under a third of the vote in spite of having Trump's endorsement.

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance should win the general, but it probably won’t be by much more than Trump's margin even in a R wave. My early prediction is 53-44 or so, a very underwhelming result in a year like this. I also think he would have been in real danger of losing the seat in a D-leaning (and potentially even neutral) year.

What makes you think he's a weak candidate? He seems like a fairly strong candidate to me.

From the look of it, he's going to win all but a handful of counties.

A pretty large number of campaign missteps, having a platform decently far from a Generic R platform, being held to under a third of the vote in spite of having Trump's endorsement.

He hasn't been held to under a third yet.

[UncleSam]

I know that primary turnout isn't the best indicator and that Rs had a competitive top of the ballot race while Ds did not, but damn those turnout differentials are brutal for Dems if they hold in November. Almost twice as many Rs as Ds (and may end up being more than twice as many when all the votes are counted). Yikes.

For reference, Vance has almost as many votes as Tim Ryan does. Even if Ryan is picking up 100% of outstanding D votes and 50% of Dolan votes (which seems unlikely but maybe plausible), Vance only needs 20% of the Mandel / Gibbons / Timken voters to swing his way to pull ahead.

[Roll Roons]

At least it's not Mandel. Let's hope Vance chills out a bit.

[BuckeyeNut]

So... how's that Dolan surge looking?

On net, it was real, though it looks like I was right that he needed Democrats to cross over to guarantee his success. Still, Dolan's support doubled from where it had been in the last 10 days of the campaign.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Vance should win the general, but it probably won’t be by much more than Trump's margin even in a R wave. My early prediction is 53-44 or so, a very underwhelming result in a year like this. I also think he would have been in real danger of losing the seat in a D-leaning (and potentially even neutral) year.

What makes you think he's a weak candidate? He seems like a fairly strong candidate to me.

A pretty large number of campaign missteps, having a platform decently far from a Generic R platform, being held to under a third of the vote in spite of having Trump's endorsement.

Not having a Generic R platform doesn't make someone a bad candidate. In fact he seems to be differing a lot on economic and trade issues more than anything, which would be reason to believe he would be an even better candidate in Ohio. A Dolan-type candidate would be vulnerable to trade attacks from Ryan.
And he's getting near a third of the vote because there's so many candidates.

[ꙮ]

So... how's that Dolan surge looking?

Very real, he went from single digits to >20% support in the span of like a week. What kind of comment is that?

[Red Wall]

Vance surge suggests Kemp could have a hard race coming once Trump steps in Georgia.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

So... how's that Dolan surge looking?

Very real, he went from single digits to >20% support in the span of like a week. What kind of comment is that?

I'm speaking of her being in second place and making the race within 5 against Vance. My post-Trafalgar prediction was wrong and I admit that.

[Roll Roons]

Vance surge suggests Kemp could have a hard race coming once Trump steps in Georgia.

Trump has been stepping in for ages. Kemp will win easily.