🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

[President Johnson]

Looks like Laschet is getting less popular since he was elected. Is that because of something pandemic related or just people getting to know him and not liking what they see? Could it give Spahn a chance as the "Stop Söder" candidate?

Has Söder said publicly he wants to become Chancellor, or is there still a chance he prefers to stay in Munich?

Söder also lost support in recent weeks, especially from within his own party. Several county officials and major city mayors are unhappy with his strict handling of the pandemic and demand an opening strategy for businesses.

I think Spahn has no chance, given how medicore he has handled the pandemic now. It's no just the vaccination mess, Merkel also intervened on his testing strategy (something that, according to observers, would lead to a minister's resignation in normal times). He's currently also under fire for hosting a dinner with business leaders a few months ago, just before he himself was tested positive for the virus. He definitely wants the top-job, but I think he's not up to it.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think Spahn has no chance, given how medicore he has handled the pandemic now. It's no just the vaccination mess, Merkel also intervened on his testing strategy (something that, according to observers, would lead to a minister's resignation in normal times). He's currently also under fire for hosting a dinner with business leaders a few months ago, just before he himself was tested positive for the virus. He definitely wants the top-job, but I think he's not up to it.

Plus, his public relations work is also detrimental to him when it comes to his purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem. You oughtn't sue the media or issue a warning to several small Youtubers if you want to become chancellor...

[Lord Halifax]

Looks like Laschet is getting less popular since he was elected. Is that because of something pandemic related or just people getting to know him and not liking what they see? Could it give Spahn a chance as the "Stop Söder" candidate?

Laschet hasn't really gotten more unpopular; he simply isn't chancellor-esque material. With his cute smile and his funny Westphalian accent he could act as the Prince of a Cologne Carnival procession, but barely anyone could imagine him sitting at the bargaining table along with Biden, Putin, Xi and other European leaders.

Has Söder said publicly he wants to become Chancellor, or is there still a chance he prefers to stay in Munich?

He is going to disclose the mystery relating to the K-question after the state elections in March. I'll doubt he's going to stay in Munich. He has been having chancellor ambitions for almost two decades now, and if he doesn't fulfill his burning ambition now, it will probably have been frustrated forever. It's comparable to the situation the Democrats saw themselves prior to the last presidential election; the number of Democratic contenders was so huge because the upcoming election was perceived as easily winnable for them; and the next federal election will be pivotal for Söder - with the crucial difference compared with presidential elections in the US that there isn't even a term limit for chancellors. If not now, then never.

If neither Laschet nor Spahn are serious contenders does that mean that there is no credible alternative to Söder, or is there someone else the CDU could field as a "Stop Söder" candidate?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If neither Laschet nor Spahn are serious contenders does that mean that there is no credible alternative to Söder, or is there someone else the CDU could field as a "Stop Söder" candidate?

No. Söder is the inevitable candidate and chancellor, and a looooong winter is coming...

[Pick Up the Phone]

Looks like Laschet is getting less popular since he was elected. Is that because of something pandemic related or just people getting to know him and not liking what they see? Could it give Spahn a chance as the "Stop Söder" candidate?

Laschet hasn't really gotten more unpopular; he simply isn't chancellor-esque material. With his cute smile and his funny Westphalian accent he could act as the Prince of a Cologne Carnival procession, but barely anyone could imagine him sitting at the bargaining table along with Biden, Putin, Xi and other European leaders.

Has Söder said publicly he wants to become Chancellor, or is there still a chance he prefers to stay in Munich?

He is going to disclose the mystery relating to the K-question after the state elections in March. I'll doubt he's going to stay in Munich. He has been having chancellor ambitions for almost two decades now, and if he doesn't fulfill his burning ambition now, it will probably have been frustrated forever. It's comparable to the situation the Democrats saw themselves prior to the last presidential election; the number of Democratic contenders was so huge because the upcoming election was perceived as easily winnable for them; and the next federal election will be pivotal for Söder - with the crucial difference compared with presidential elections in the US that there isn't even a term limit for chancellors. If not now, then never.

If neither Laschet nor Spahn are serious contenders does that mean that there is no credible alternative to Söder, or is there someone else the CDU could field as a "Stop Söder" candidate?

Of course, Laschet is still a serious contender (and perhaps even more than that). He's CDU chairman after all and it would be completely foolish to count him out at this point.

There are also plenty of other CDU politicians who could possibly mount a challenge (e.g., Daniel Günther). Their biggest problem would be that they lack the national profile of Söder/Laschet/Spahn.

[Pick Up the Phone]

I think Spahn has no chance, given how medicore he has handled the pandemic now. It's no just the vaccination mess, Merkel also intervened on his testing strategy (something that, according to observers, would lead to a minister's resignation in normal times). He's currently also under fire for hosting a dinner with business leaders a few months ago, just before he himself was tested positive for the virus. He definitely wants the top-job, but I think he's not up to it.

Plus, his public relations work is also detrimental to him when it comes to his purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem. You oughtn't sue the media or issue a warning to several small Youtubers if you want to become chancellor...

Seriously? Hardly anyone cares about this. And yes, you can become Kanzlerkandidat even if you are mean to some completely irrelevant Youtubers.

I would agree with President Johnson that 2021 is probably too early for Spahn who is also in a worse situation than Söder or Laschet are. But certainly not because of this nothingburger. 

[Tender Branson]

There are also plenty of other CDU politicians who could possibly mount a challenge (e.g., Daniel Günther). Their biggest problem would be that they lack the national profile of Söder/Laschet/Spahn.

Kretschmer from Saxony and Günther from S-H would be good compromise candidates.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There are also plenty of other CDU politicians who could possibly mount a challenge (e.g., Daniel Günther). Their biggest problem would be that they lack the national profile of Söder/Laschet/Spahn.

Kretschmer from Saxony and Günther from S-H would be good compromise candidates.

But here the question arises why anyone but Söder should run for the chancellor's office?
He is in the lead by huge margins in every single poll. The people obviously want him to become chancellor (for whatever reasons). Moreover, he will be, unlike Armin, able to keep the AfD's numbers significantly down. Even if Söder decides to troll us all, why should anybody else than Laschet become Merkel's successor? He is the other party chairman, and he is the Governor of the most populous state by far. Why should Governors from small states spell him? (I would see the advantage of Kretschmer's candidacy, though.)

[Lord Halifax]

If neither Laschet nor Spahn are serious contenders does that mean that there is no credible alternative to Söder, or is there someone else the CDU could field as a "Stop Söder" candidate?

No. Söder is the inevitable candidate and chancellor, and a looooong winter is coming...

Do you still expect that to be the case despite lockdowns becoming more unpopular?

[beesley]

I find this whole business of being leader but not being the candidate for the Chancellery incredibly stupid. Any reason why such a phenomenon exists?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I find this whole business of being leader but not being the candidate for the Chancellery incredibly stupid. Any reason why such a phenomenon exists?

I remember reading once that it started in 1961 when Willy Brandt became chancellor candidate despite Erich Ollenhauer being the leader of the SPD. The inspiration apparently was the American system, in which the leader of the national committee is also not automatically the nominee for president. Brandt tried hard to channel JFK-energy, running a very Americanized campaign.

Brandt eventually became SPD leader before becoming chancellor. 1974-1982 was the first period in which the chancellor was not the leader of his respective party. After Brandt resigned as chancellor and Schmidt took over, the latter would not become party leader, which lead to some problems later.

In the first 150 days of Gerhard Schröder's chancellorship, the SPD leader was minister of finance Oskar Lafontaine. It is well known how that went.

It is debatable whether the situation since 2018 is a convincing counterexample in favor of this system.

One could argue that the dualism party leader - chancellor candidate makes sense at least for the union as otherwise, the CSU would be automatically barred from gaining the chancellorship ever. In sum, however, this strategy seems to have more downsides than upsides.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I find this whole business of being leader but not being the candidate for the Chancellery incredibly stupid. Any reason why such a phenomenon exists?

CDU and CSU are two separate parties. Each of these parties have a chairperson, but together they have a single Chancellor-candidate.

Historically, the Chancellor-candidacy was an invention of the SPD though. In 1961, they had first named a Chancellor-candidate with Willy Brandt. Brandt's campaign had largely been inspired by JFK's presidential run in 1960, including the specific position of a Chancellor-candidate.

Unlike the Westminster system, Germany doesn't really have a tradition of unifying everything into a single position. What is usually called a party leader in Britain is split up into the party chairman, the parliamentary group's (caucus') chairman, and the Chancellor-candidate/lead candidate around here. And in some cases, political parties even have two of each, leading to up to six separate people holding the aforementioned positions (the Greens, the Left, and the AfD in particular follow that model). At least the party chairs and Chancellor-candidates/lead candidates also don't need to be incumbent members of parliament themselves. In the case of CDU/CSU, FDP, and a lesser extent SPD it is not uncommon to at least partially and/or temporarily unify these positions in a single leader though.

Politically, the split between a Chancellor-candidate and a chairperson allows a party to select a Chancellor-candidate who's more popular among the general electorate than he's within his own party while retaining a chair where the opposite might be true (think Schröder/Lafontaine in 1998 as a classic example).

[beesley]

I find this whole business of being leader but not being the candidate for the Chancellery incredibly stupid. Any reason why such a phenomenon exists?

CDU and CSU are two separate parties. Each of these parties have a chairperson, but together they have a single Chancellor-candidate.

Historically, the Chancellor-candidacy was an invention of the SPD though. In 1961, they had first named a Chancellor-candidate with Willy Brandt. Brandt's campaign had largely been inspired by JFK's presidential run in 1960, including the specifc position of a Chancellor-candidate.

Unlike the Westminster system, Germany doesn't really have a tradition of unifying everything into a single position. What is usually called a party leader in Britain is split up into the party chairman, the parliamentary group's (caucus') chairman, and the Chancellor-candidate/lead candidate around here. And in some cases, political parties even have two of each, leading to up to six separate people holding the afoementioned positions (the Greens, the Left, and the AfD in particular follow that model). At least the party chairs and Chancellor-candidates/lead candidates also don't need to be incumbent members of parliament themselves. Particularly in the case of CDU/CSU, FDP, and a lesser extent SPD it is not uncommon to at least partially and/or temporarily unify these positions in a single leader though.

Politically, the split between a Chancellor-candidate and a chairperson allows a party to select a Chancellor-candidate who's more popular among the general electorate than he's within his own party while retaining a chair where the opposite might be true (think Schröder/Lafontaine in 1998 as a classic example).

I find this whole business of being leader but not being the candidate for the Chancellery incredibly stupid. Any reason why such a phenomenon exists?

I remember reading once that it started in 1961 when Willy Brandt became chancellor candidate despite Erich Ollenhauer being the leader of the SPD. The inspiration apparently was the American system, in which the leader of the national committee is also not automatically the nominee for president. Brandt tried hard to channel JFK-energy, running a very Americanized campaign.

Brandt eventually became SPD leader before becoming chancellor. 1974-1982 was the first period in which the chancellor was not the leader of his respective party. After Brandt resigned as chancellor and Schmidt took over, the latter would not become party leader, which lead to some problems later.

In the first 150 days of Gerhard Schröder's chancellorship, the SPD leader was minister of finance Oskar Lafontaine. It is well known how that went.

It is debatable whether the situation since 2018 is a convincing counterexample in favor of this system.

One could argue that the dualism party leader - chancellor candidate makes sense at least for the union as otherwise, the CSU would be automatically barred from gaining the chancellorship ever. In sum, however, this strategy seems to have more downsides than upsides.

Ah okay. Though we do have party chairmen as well in Britain who manage the party. I understand the CDU and CSU are separate parties but it seems as if the distinction affects other parties as well. Thank you both for your detailed responses.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah okay. Though we do have party chairmen as well in Britain who manage the party. I understand the CDU and CSU are separate parties but it seems as if the distinction affects other parties as well. Thank you both for your detailed responses.

They're probably more akin to the general secretaries in Germany though, which another separate position.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Ah okay. Though we do have party chairmen as well in Britain who manage the party. I understand the CDU and CSU are separate parties but it seems as if the distinction affects other parties as well. Thank you both for your detailed responses.

They're probably more akin to the general secretaries in Germany though, which another separate position.

Indeed, the Secretary General of a German party would probably be the right equivalent. Responsible for all matters organizational and key when it comes to enforcing party discipline.

I understand that the concept of the Chancellor not also being the leader of the ruling party (and vice versa) may seem unusual from a British (or general Anglo) perspective. But there are good reasons for it. One is to give the Chancellor the possibility to appear statesman-like and above the mudslinging of everyday party politics. And another one is to establish a balance between different party factions.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I assume it's beyond any reasonable doubt that Söder is going to be the "laughing third party" after today's state elections? (I can't find an adequate translation in my dictionary.)

[Pick Up the Phone]

I assume it's beyond any reasonable doubt that Söder is going to be the "laughing third party" after today's state elections? (I can't find an adequate translation in my dictionary.)

No, it is not. There are no strong indications that this will hurt Laschet in the long run.

1) Because of the general circumstances (strong incumbents; weak candidates; Laschet being CDU chairman for a short time only).
2) Because of the 'mask scandal'. We can already see that major CDU players are starting to focus on this narrative.
3) Because there were no real expectations to win in either BW or RLP. These elections will be forgotten in a week or two.

Aside from all of this, it is not even clear if Söder wants to become Chancellor in the first place. Or if he has any other ambitions beyond Bavaria.

[Lord Halifax]

2) Because of the 'mask scandal'.

How does that affect Söder's chances?

Who do you think is the most likely Chancellor candidate now?

[Pick Up the Phone]

2) Because of the 'mask scandal'.

What's that about?

Two CDU MPs have been accused of corruption charges (related to government deals to purchase anti-COVID masks) and were forced to step down/leave the party. Several more are under investigation.

https://spectator.us/topic/mask-scandal-threatening-destroy-merkel-legacy/

Who do you think is the most likely Chancellor candidate now?

I think that a strong case can be made for Laschet. Don't get me wrong, it is absolutely possible that Söder will become Chancellor candidate in the end - but his position is not as strong as it was a few weeks ago. Much will depend on the next weeks and how the pandemic develops.

[Lord Halifax]

Who do you think is the most likely Chancellor candidate now?

I think that a strong case can be made for Laschet. Don't get me wrong, it is absolutely possible that Söder will become Chancellor candidate in the end - but his position is not as strong as it was a few weeks ago. Much will depend on the next weeks and how the pandemic develops.

Why is that?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

3) Because there were no real expectations to win in either BW or RLP. These elections will be forgotten in a week or two.

Sorry what? Baldauf's CDU was almost continuously leading in the polls from December 2016 through to February 2021.

In BW, the Eisenmann's CDU were indeed almost consistently trailing the Greens, but they were always on the edge of catching up with them, which sometimes even happened.

Aside from all of this, it is not even clear if Söder wants to become Chancellor in the first place. Or if he has any other ambitions beyond Bavaria.

How come you're the only one who thinks Söder doesn't nurse any ambition of becoming chancellor? When should he, if not now? It's like a Democrat with presidential ambitions refusing to run for president in 2020.

I know you're a big fan of Spahn, but he still has much time to realize his lifetime's ambition, but Söder is already 52 years old; his "biological clock" is ticking. And keep in mind that he used to be an environment minister, so he will be able to show your Greens some understanding for their first-world problems (for example as to the bee deaths).

[Lord Halifax]

Who do you think is the most likely Chancellor candidate now?

I think that a strong case can be made for Laschet. Don't get me wrong, it is absolutely possible that Söder will become Chancellor candidate in the end - but his position is not as strong as it was a few weeks ago. Much will depend on the next weeks and how the pandemic develops.

Why is that?

This was a serious question btw. I've tried reading whatever analysis I could find and most commentators seem to agree that Laschet has suppressed internal CDU opposition to him, that the CDU establishment believe "the polls can change" so it doesn't matter that Laschet is polling badly at the moment, that Laschet will be the candidate, and that Söder will only run if invited to do so by the CDU and won't insist on getting the position, giving Laschet a de facto veto on Söder.

As an outsider a few things puzzle me:

1) Why isn't there seemingly more opposition to Laschet running in the more conservative parts of the country where AfD is a real threat? Presumably they'd do better with Söder on top and could lose seats if Laschet is chosen?

2) The state elections showed that personality matters, and the polls show Söder is perceived a lot more positively by the voters than Laschet, so won't that boost Söder's chances?

3) Why does Söder need an invitation from the CDU? Can't he simply demand to be the candidate saying that he is better positioned to win and that it's been nearly two decades since his party got their last chance so it's their turn?

4) Given that the CSU has 140k members and CDU 400k members you'd expect CSU to get to appoint the chancellor candidate roughly every fourth time. They got the top spot in 1980 and 2002, so it's nearly 20 years since last time. Why is that seemingly not considered relevant? (it would be in a lot of other countries with a permanent alliance between independent parties).

[Astatine]

Virgin Laschet vs. Chad AKK

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I'm trying to give an answer to you questions one by one.

1) Why isn't there seemingly more opposition to Laschet running in the more conservative parts of the country where AfD is a real threat? Presumably they'd do better with Söder on top and could lose seats if Laschet is chosen?

I think the presumption is false that Söder is more to the right than Laschet. Yes, the CSU has traditionally always been more socially conservative than the CDU, but it is not 2016 anymore when Seehofer desperately tried to integrate the AfD's slogans into establishment politics. Seehofer was often seen as some folkish hinterland character while Söder has been perceived so far as a modernizer. He has started a fight with the CSU's more conservative wing over the promotion of women within the party and has positioned himself clearly on the more progressive side concerning climate and environmental issues.

Besides that, I think that at least since 2019 the Union has realized that emulating the AfD does not bring the AfD voters into the Union camp. Since the refugee crisis, there has been so much talk about "listening" or "taking concerns seriously" that the current political discourse lacks. Emulation the AfD only benefits the AfD. That was the painful realization of the CSU in 2018 when it lost its absolute majority and received its worst election result since 1950 despite-or maybe because-being so far on the right. Until 2019, most in the CDU had believed that some ordinary, reasonable voters were just frustrated enough to make the mistake to vote for the AfD. Now, many have realized that the vast majority of AfD voters vote for the party because they are xenophobic, misogynistic, racist, and okay with fascist forces in the party, and that is why that the Union does not care so much about these voters anymore electorally (and I strongly believe that this is a major reason why Friedrich Merz lost in 2021).

2) The state elections showed that personality matters, and the polls show Söder is perceived a lot more positively by the voters than Laschet, so won't that boost Söder's chances?

Yes, that is correct. It would be the reasonable decision for the Union to chose Söder but, unfortunately, reason is not the only thing that matters in politics. Besides that, I think we should put things into perspective here. Laschet is not some kind of newcomer to politics, but he is the prime minister of the most populous state in Germany, where he enjoys decent approval ratings. He has won the prime ministership in the "heartland" of the SPD. Laschet has proven that he can win elections. In fact, his electoral record is better than Söder's. On the other hand, so is Olaf Scholz's.

3) Why does Söder need an invitation from the CDU? Can't he simply demand to be the candidate saying that he is better positioned to win and that it's been nearly two decades since his party got their last chance so it's their turn?

Söder cannot force himself on the CDU and it is not 'his turn'. The CSU is SOLELY based in Bavaria, and you can't win the chancellorship just by winning Bavaria. In 15 of 16 German states, it is CDU members who will distribute leaflets, hang up election posters, organize info-stands, participate in GOTV efforts... The vast, vast, vast organizational responsibility is with the CDU.

Also, the overwhelming majority of Union candidates are running outside of Bavaria. The CDU has not just the higher organizational potential, it also has the higher stakes. So it only makes sense that the CDU has more to say on the matter of federal elections. If most CDU state branches are more enthusiastic about Söder as chancellor candidates, it will be Söder. But politics is also a matter of pride, prestige, and status. The CDU state branches must be convinced to campaign for a man who is not even a member of their own party. They must be convinced to give up the highest office in the country. If they are not willing to do that, Laschet can take the nomination if he wants it. It is Söder who would then finally have to give in. Laschet leads 15 state party branches, Söder only leads one.

4) Given that the CSU has 140k members and CDU 400k members you'd expect CSU to get to appoint the chancellor candidate roughly every fourth time. They got the top spot in 1980 and 2002, so it's nearly 20 years since last time. Why is that seemingly not considered relevant? (it would be in a lot of other countries with a permanent alliance between independent parties).

That would make more sense if federal elections would be decided by the total votes everywhere, but they are not. In German general elections, voters chose, besides their constituencies' representatives, the party lists of their respective state party branches. So for 15 CDU state party branches, it does simply not matter if the CSU has many active campaigners. CSU campaigners campaign for CSU candidates. Campaigners of the CDU Niedersachsen campaign for CDU candidates in Niedersachsen.

Besides, it is worth noting that there is a different political culture in Bavaria regarding party membership. Due to the CSU having been and still being the super dominant political party in Bavaria, a CSU membership often came in handy if you aspired to pursue an administrative career. Or, what if you wanted to run for local office in your town or your village? Often, you could only do that if you'd run on the CSU-ticket. Well, you could have run on the ticket of another party, but (a) you would probably have no chance and (b) you would have been the village idiot #1. So yeah, the CSU has many members, but we should not think that everybody is a strong party soldier and we should keep in mind that there are politically very conflicting groups within that membership.

[palandio]

To add to Amanda's response, I would also say that Bavaria is politically and culturally a (moderate) outlier among German states, arguably more so in the past than now, but the effect is still there. It happens often enough that people from outlying regions climb to the top of their countries, but I would argue that it happens less often than it should going by population and representation, and that if it happens, the leaders usually don't fully embody the politics and culture of their original region. Both Strauß and Stoiber were quite Bavarian in different ways and it arguably diminished their electability outside of Bavaria. Söder, who is from Nuremberg and not from rural Upper Bavaria, is arguably less outlying, but the argument still stands, albeit to a lesser degree.