Rasmussen: O'Malley(D) leads Ehlrich(R) by 7 points

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Maryland Governor by Rasmussen on 2006-07-10

Summary: D: 49%, R: 42%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Moooooo]

Hmm... This isnt that great of a sign for O'Malley.  I would have figured he would be up by 10 or so right now.  I guess Ehrlich's official announcement and selection of a highly inexperienced blind woman gave him a boost (yes, he's fishing for votes again).

[MissCatholic]

Hmm... This isnt that great of a sign for O'Malley.  I would have figured he would be up by 10 or so right now.  I guess Ehrlich's official announcement and selection of a highly inexperienced blind woman gave him a boost (yes, he's fishing for votes again).

when was the last time a mayor of city won statewide in Maryland? Somebody told me that it hasnt happened for years is that true? if so my friend said thats why o'malley would lose and i was stunned when told this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, Ed Rendell was Philadelphia big city mayor and he managed to be governor so it can happen in MD, and that had never happened before.

[Moooooo]

Its happend before.  Schaefer was Mayor Baltimore and went on to be elected Governor.  Its much more odd to see a Republican win than a Democratic Mayor of Baltimore. Ehrlich is the first Republican Governor since Sprio Agnew.

[nini2287]

I hope Ehrlich wins this race.  He'd be a good VP choice for someone like Allen, Gingrich or Tancredo.

However, his Lt. Gov. choice seems pretty weak this time around-how can any Republican support a "Department of Disabilities"?  Big government at its finest.

[Moooooo]

He'd be a good VP choice for someone like Allen, Gingrich or Tancredo.

Why?  He would struggle to win MD at the top of the ticket.  From the VP slot, the ticket wouldnt stand a chance...

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She's also a 36 year old political novice. Ehrlich is simply fishing for sympathy votes (Cox is legally blind).

[nini2287]

He'd be a good VP choice for someone like Allen, Gingrich or Tancredo.

Why?  He would struggle to win MD at the top of the ticket.  From the VP slot, the ticket wouldnt stand a chance...

I'd doubt he'd flip Maryland, but he doesn't have a ton of baggage or an extensive voting record and is fairly moderate but has an economically conservative track record that would please some Republicans turned off by Bush.

[Moooooo]

... fair enough

[Virginian87]

I thought O'Malley would be leading by more too, but not to worry.  He's in no real danger. 

[Moooooo]

This map = not good for Ehrlich.



Barely ahead in Baltimore and Howard County.  He'll have to win both by at least 10% to stand a chance.

[AuH2O]

His fundamental numbers are pretty good. I doubt he will lose so long as he runs an appropriately tough race.

[Alcon]

His fundamental numbers are pretty good. I doubt he will lose so long as he runs an appropriately tough race.

His fundamental numbers?

His current "fundamental number" is -6.

[AuH2O]

Polls don't count. Elections count.

No incumbent with Ehrlich's favorables has ever lost. Ever. So either the poll is wrong in some bizarre way, or O'Malley is riding high as the now-assured Dem candidate. Once the real campaign starts, his numbers will drop.

[Alcon]

Polls don't count. Elections count.

Gee, thanks.  I did not know that.  Here I was thinking that poll results were final election results or something.  Thank you for your wisdom!

No incumbent with Ehrlich's favorables has ever lost. Ever. So either the poll is wrong in some bizarre way, or O'Malley is riding high as the now-assured Dem candidate. Once the real campaign starts, his numbers will drop.

The last SurveyUSA had him down 7.  Are you trying to tell me no incumbent has lost with those approvals?  Bull.

[AuH2O]

Find one.

[Smash255]

Find one.

No Govenor has ever lost with a 44% approval 51% disapproval rate???

[AuH2O]

Err, I was referencing the poll this thread is about, where Ehrlich is at 55%.

If he really has a 3% approval, I'd expect him to lose. I'm just going off this poll.

[Virginian87]

This map = not good for Ehrlich.



Barely ahead in Baltimore and Howard County.  He'll have to win both by at least 10% to stand a chance.

Interesting map.  I thought Anne Arundel, Howard, Charles, and Calvert counties would be more competitive. 

[Moooooo]

 

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Charles is sometimes competitive in federal elections, but I believe Ehrlich won big there in 2002.  Anne Arundel will go for Ehrlich by at least 10%.  However, if O'Malley can keep Ehrlich to 55% or so in Anne Arundel, he (O'Malley) has a great chance of winning.  The same thing can be said for Howard and Baltimore County.  If Ehrlich wins Howard by 5% or so and wins Baltimore County by 10% or so, he really doesnt have much of a chance.

Ehrlich won most of these counties by 20-30% in 2002, and still only managed to pull 52% statewide. 

The votes are in PG, MoCo, and Baltimore City.

[Virginian87]

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Charles is sometimes competitive in federal elections, but I believe Ehrlich won big there in 2002.  Anne Arundel will go for Ehrlich by at least 10%.  However, if O'Malley can keep Ehrlich to 55% or so in Anne Arundel, he (O'Malley) has a great chance of winning.  The same thing can be said for Howard and Baltimore County.  If Ehrlich wins Howard by 5% or so and wins Baltimore County by 10% or so, he really doesnt have much of a chance.

Ehrlich won most of these counties by 20-30% in 2002, and still only managed to pull 52% statewide. 

The votes are in PG, MoCo, and Baltimore City.

Thank you for that information.  It really is interesting how two counties and a city can control the entire political outcome of a state.  Why is Anne Arundel County so supportive of Ehrlich?  I thought that as a suburban Baltimore county it might be more evenly split.  Furthermore, is Frederick County considered reliably Republican or has it voted for Democrats in the past?  I realize it's represented by Republican congressman Roscoe Bartlett.  It just seems to me that more development is going on in Frederick, Brunswick, and Point of Rocks and that maybe that would make the area more competitive as well.

[Alcon]

Err, I was referencing the poll this thread is about, where Ehrlich is at 55%.

If he really has a 3% approval, I'd expect him to lose. I'm just going off this poll.

Rasmussen seems to have a tendency to always over-poll approvals relative to other companies.

[Mike in Maryland]

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Charles is sometimes competitive in federal elections, but I believe Ehrlich won big there in 2002.  Anne Arundel will go for Ehrlich by at least 10%.  However, if O'Malley can keep Ehrlich to 55% or so in Anne Arundel, he (O'Malley) has a great chance of winning.  The same thing can be said for Howard and Baltimore County.  If Ehrlich wins Howard by 5% or so and wins Baltimore County by 10% or so, he really doesnt have much of a chance.

Ehrlich won most of these counties by 20-30% in 2002, and still only managed to pull 52% statewide. 

The votes are in PG, MoCo, and Baltimore City.

Thank you for that information.  It really is interesting how two counties and a city can control the entire political outcome of a state.  Why is Anne Arundel County so supportive of Ehrlich?  I thought that as a suburban Baltimore county it might be more evenly split.  Furthermore, is Frederick County considered reliably Republican or has it voted for Democrats in the past?  I realize it's represented by Republican congressman Roscoe Bartlett.  It just seems to me that more development is going on in Frederick, Brunswick, and Point of Rocks and that maybe that would make the area more competitive as well.

Anne Arundel is suburban, but with a conservative (if nominally Democratic) streak.  Much of it is blue-collar suburbia like Erlich's native Arbutus, and voters there related to him more than to KKT's wealthy background.  O'Malley seems to fit better; he probably won't carry it but should get better than KKT's pathetic 35%.

Frederick County is mostly Republican, although some of the more populated areas (such as the city of Frederick) often support Democrats.  Much of the growth there comes from white family voters, including many who moved there from Montgomery County.  They help keep Frederick Republican, while Montgomery, traditionally Democratic, has become even more so as it attracts minorities and nontraditional households (singles, seniors, childless couples, etc.)

Of the Southern Maryland counties, Calvert and St. Mary's usually favor Republicans atop the ticket but not always further down.  Charles is more Democratic, with more African Americans and suburbanites.  Charles gave Ehrlich 56% of the vote in 2002; it and Howard County were the only counties Ehrlich carried with less than 60%.

[Jake]

It just seems to me that more development is going on in Frederick, Brunswick, and Point of Rocks and that maybe that would make the area more competitive as well.

As Nick alludes to, the development in mostly being fueled by white, upper-middle class people moving from the more "inner" suburbs out to your typical suburban/town house/"McMansion" developments.

[Moooooo]

An observation regarding the race for Governor in MD


As some of you know, I live in Dundalk, MD. A suburb located approximately 2-3 miles from Baltimore City. I like to refer to my area as a very blue collard, populist type of town. People here are economically liberal, but socially conservative. Several years ago workers from Bethlehem Steel and General Motors ruled this area. We still have a strong union presence, but nothing like it was 15-20 years ago.

Anyway, on with my story...

I see this truck today (I believe it was a Ford F-250) completely decked out with 2006 bumper stickers. While I’m sitting at the red light I decide to zoom in on who this guy is supporting. Here is the list...

*Norman Stone (D) for State Senate
*Johnny Olszewski Jr. (D) for Delegate
*Dutch (D) for Congress.
*Johnny Olszewski Sr. (D) for County Council
*Minnick (D) for Delegate
*Cardin (D) for Senate

and last, but not least -

**Another Democrat for Ehrlich

Well, it got me thinking about 2002. If the same turnover effect (moderate/conservative dem’s going for Ehrlich) occurs in 2006 that occurred in 2002, we’re goanna be in for a super tight race; a race that probably leans to Ehrlich.

The Baltimore suburbs are full of pockets of voters that resemble what I described above. O'Malleys platform is going to have to bring in some moderate/conservative Democrats or he’s going to suffer the same fate as KKT.  How he does this, I have no idea.