English mega-local elections, 2021

[YL]

Shaun Bailey (Con)
Kam Balayev (Renew)
Siân Berry (Green)
Count Binface (Count Binface for Mayor of London)
Valerie Brown (Burning Pink Party) [1]
Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) [2]
Max Fosh (Independent) [3]
Laurence Fox (Reclaim Party) [4]
Peter Gammons (UKIP) [5]
Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare Party)
Steve Kelleher (SDP) [6]
Sadiq Khan (Labour)
David Kurten (Heritage Party) [7]
Farah London (Independent) [8]
Nims Obunge (Independent) [9]
Niko Omilana (Independent) [10]
Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)
Mandu Reid (Women's Equality Party)
Brian Rose (London Real Party) [11]

[1] This lot, connected to Extinction Rebellion.
[2] Yes, Jeremy's brother.  Anti-lockdown, anti-vax, among other things.
[3] His Twitter feed calls him a "YouTuber".
[4] Tedious anti-"woke" actor, also anti-lockdown.
[5] Yes, he really is called that.
[6] The Continuity Continuity Continuity SDP, I suppose.  Functionally yet another UKIP splinter.
[7] Elected to the Assembly as UKIP in 2016.
[8] "Entrepreneur"
[9] CEO of something called the Peace Alliance
[10] Another "YouTuber"
[11] This one is described as a "podcaster" as well as a YouTuber.

[YL]

My choice is Labour, Lib Dem, Tory, Green and the Yorkshire Party...

Sheffield elects by thirds, with an extra vacancy in Richmond ward, so 29 out of 84 seats are up for election.  The current situation (counting vacancies with their party) is Labour 49, Lib Dem 26, Green 8, Independent (elected as UKIP) 1, but if the ward results were to be the same as the last election (in 2019), Labour would gain the Independent seat but lose five seats to the Lib Dems and three to the Greens, leading to Labour and the opposition being tied: Lab 42, Lib Dem 31, Green 11.  There's a fourth potential Green gain, Walkley, which was a near miss for them last time, so it's definitely possible we could get a Lib Dem/Green administration.

The Independent, Jack Clarkson, is standing again, and his ward (Stocksbridge & Upper Don, the ward which least makes sense as part of the Sheffield council area) is apparently being targeted by the Lib Dems and the Tories as well, so who knows what will happen there.

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Labour lost control in Sheffield.  The council leader lost his Hillsborough seat to the Greens, who made 5 gains.  The Lib Dems made three gains, but missed out on a couple they might have won, while the Tories won the UKIP/Independent seat in Stocksbridge & Upper Don to regain a presence on the Council after 13 years .  New council Lab 41, Lib Dem 29, Green 13, Con 1.

Map:

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Labour lost control in Sheffield.  The council leader lost his Hillsborough seat to the Greens, who made 5 gains.  The Lib Dems made three gains, but missed out on a couple they might have won, while the Tories won the UKIP/Independent seat in Stocksbridge & Upper Don to regain a presence on the Council after 13 years .  New council Lab 41, Lib Dem 29, Green 13, Con 1.

Map:

Based on those results would the LDs have won Hallam?

Yes, easily.  They weren't that far behind in Crookes & Crosspool and were way ahead of Labour in Fulwood and Dore & Totley.

Greens probably carried Sheffield Central, though the ward boundaries don't quite match.

Meanwhile in Barnsley the Tories did surprisingly well in the two wards covering the town of Hoyland.  They were closeish in Hoyland Milton, and actually tied with the Labour candidate in Rockingham.  But they lost the coin toss...

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Labour have gained the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough “metro” mayor from the Tories.

Some suggestions the Greens might be in with a chance for the Bristol city mayor (not to be confused with the “West of England” metro mayor.

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...

Some suggestions the Greens might be in with a chance for the Bristol city mayor (not to be confused with the “West of England” metro mayor.

https://twitter.com/eekpipe/status/1391141919028400132

I think that’s too big a gap to make up, and Rees (Lab) will hold on.

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There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

I don't think the suggestion involves adding either Almondsbury or Thornbury to Bristol, just the contiguous urban area: Filton, Stoke Gifford, Sadly Broke, Mangotsfield, Kingswood.  I don't know the Kingswood side but the Filton area feels like part of Bristol.

I'd expand Nottingham and Leicester as well.

</pitchforkbait>

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Rotherham.  First map is leading party in each ward, second is seats won.  Very striking geographical pattern with the Tories doing well in Rother Valley constituency almost regardless of demographics, except that just as in the UK-wide picture Labour did better in Wales.





(Independent is white in the first map, grey in the second.  Lilac is the Rotherham Democratic Party, a localist UKIP splinter, though one of their councillors is ex-Labour.)

[YL]

Lilac is the Rotherham Democratic Party, a localist UKIP splinter, though one of their councillors is ex-Labour.)

I suppose it's not really an issue today, but was there any local political fallout from The Scandal, helping either these people or UKIP?

That's how they got their original break, and I'm sure there are still some lingering effects.  The local Labour party still comes across as not entirely a happy ship; several councillors have left recently, including the one who won for the RDP in Rotherham West ward.

[YL]

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.

I think the Beaconsfield constituency could be a good one. Very right wing (and marginal on Brexit), giving outfits like the Referendum Party good scores. Similarly East Surrey (Geoffrey Howe's constituency).

Maybe Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) in fact. Is is white-flight-ish?

Yes, Beaconsfield constituency is a good call (although probably not the town itself). What I do know about Northwest Surrey (Spelthorne and Michael Gove’s constituency Surrey Heath) is that it is the least wealthy part of the county. East Surrey is also similar.

Within Beaconsfield constituency, Beaconsfield itself and Gerrards Cross, which are wealthy commuter towns, have considerably higher levels of education to degree level (over 50% of adults in many census areas in the 2011 census) than the southern parts of the constituency nearer (and to some extent suburbs of) Slough: particularly in and around Burnham and Iver it's often below 30% (not that this is particularly low by national standards, merely average).  For the constituency as a whole it's 37.0%, compare Chesham & Amersham 41.0%, Buckingham 35.7%, Wycombe 31.4%, Aylesbury 30.0%.

I'd imagine that those southern areas near Slough had considerably more Brexit support than Beaconsfield town and Gerrards Cross (or Marlow).  The former South Bucks district voted Leave, but Beaconsfield constituency, which additionally includes Marlow, is estimated to have voted narrowly Remain.

Here are the Surrey constituencies ranked according to the same measure:

Esher & Walton 42.8
SW Surrey 40.7
Guildford 40.6
Mole Valley 38.5
Woking 38.0
Epsom & Ewell 36.4
Reigate 36.1
Runnymede & Weybridge 33.8
Surrey Heath 33.1
East Surrey 31.4
Spelthorne 25.9

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Does anybody have a summary of the resulting coalitions in the NOC councils from this cycle?

I have the county councils and unitary authorities but not borough and district councils.

I doubt they're all known yet.  It's just been announced that Sheffield will still have a Labour leader but three Greens are joining the cabinet.