English mega-local elections, 2021
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Author Topic: English mega-local elections, 2021  (Read 22473 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: January 04, 2021, 10:55:04 AM »
« edited: January 07, 2021, 06:42:46 AM by c r a b c a k e »

Due to the suspension of the 2020 elections due to Covid, we have a bumber crop of them this year. in addition to the Scottish + Welsh parliaments (which have their own threads, that's why this is called the "English" elections) every area of England has at least one election going on, including:

- all 24 county councils (down from two: as per the agonisingly slow procuedure by which two-tier councils are being phased out by some sort of perverse Battle Royale/last man standing tournament, both Bucks and Northants have been eliminated). Aside from Cumbia (Lab-Lib coalition) this is all Tory territory, having clawed most of them back from their Major nadir during the Blair years and holding them since. Given the crippled Lib Dems, the continued failure of whatever Farage is calling himself this week to set down instititional roots and a chastened Labour, I doubt this will change much. For Labour in partiular, the counties they traditionally have performed best in are Derbyshire, the aforementioned Cumbria, Northumberland, Staffordshire, Notts and Lancashire; not exactly Labour's friendliest turf at the present (county councils exclude cities and large towns, who are given their own unitaries, hobbling the party). Lib Dems will try and build back their presence in the West; if any of the other southern Tory councils have done something stupid, we'll presumably find out in the protest vote.

- Perhaps more interestingly, mayoral elections are up as well: this includes Sadiq Khan's probable re-election in London. Say what you like about him, he is popular (read: not despised as Ken) in the suburbs and the Tories have not salavaged their reputation in the capital amonst the voters they depend on. Other than that, there are seven combined authority mayoral elections: (note, for those unaware, these are largely Mickey Mouse jobs with mysterious  powers beyond appearing on TV a lot, but they are interesting nonetheless)
  • Manchester and Merseyside, which should be safe Labour short of an disaster for the Party
  • the West Midlands, which is new, and should be a slamdunk for Tracy Babin MP (Labour)
  • three Tory-held Mayoralties of note - the West Midlands, the West of England (the old Avon council) and Tees Valley. I hazard Andy Street in Birmingham will be favoured against Liam Byrne MP. LAbour should hope to win Tees and the West of England, but these are weirdo seats
  • "Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough" which is a) a FAKE JOB and b) safe Tory


There are also a gaggle of "normal" Mayors, of which the only interesting race is Liverpool because the incumbent, Al's fave politician Joe Anderson, has been arrested for corruption.

Next there are the beloved institutions known as the Police and Crime Comissioners. I won't overexcite you by talking too much about them.

This post is getting quite long, but there also races in all 36 metropolitan boroughs, 28 of the 58 unitary councils, and 62 of the 182 non-metropolitan districts; as well as the mysterious City of London corporation and the council of the Isles of Scilly, which apparantly counts as its own distinct type of government.
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Blair
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2021, 05:24:35 PM »

Interesting point re Sadiq not being as hated in outer london; I wonder how much of this is down to the demographic changes in these seats (IDS seat seems to demonstrate this perfectly). I should know where but I know that Labour came very close to winning one of the GLA seats in 2016 which has always been held by the Tories.

I'd be shocked if Sadiq didn't win; there was a time when he was expected to win on the first ballot but in a strange way I actually think that covid has helped cover up some of his bigger political issues around crime or his fare freeze; while it's depressing that the Mayor of London is becoming a more pointless job with it's roles stripped away it does make it a lot easier for Labour to win.

Re the other Metro Mayors; there was a time when Andy Street was expected to have a tough race. I know that Sion Simon was a hilarously weak choice for 2016 but I don't know how much of this race relies on offsetting the margin in seats where the Labour vote has frankly vanished in the last 10 years.

The same seems to apply for the Tees Valley race; although it on paper has a much stronger Labour vote & tradition- but I might be wrong about which result was more shocking?

I assume with the way that our coverage works these races will be the 'test' set for Starmer rather than the other races
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2021, 06:16:25 PM »

And apparently they may be delayed again till summer.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2021, 09:49:35 AM »

Though today it is being briefed that they might be "on" again.

As with so much to do with this government, clear as mud Roll Eyes
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2021, 01:29:59 PM »

Amusingly not only do we have no clue when these will actually happen but nobody, literally nobody, has a clue what will actually happen when they do. The two big issues being a) the impact of the pandemic and governmental response to it and b) the pretty radical change - once again - in the Labour Party's general image and direction.

Can we project forwards from the last time these seats were contested? Probably not - but this could barely be done even during the 2016-19 period as things were so volatile. Can we project from the last General Election? Only if you're actually high on glue. Do we have any information that might give us some indication of what to look out for? Not really. We don't even have local by-elections to track, and those can be valuable if you know what you're looking for. Though I will say that there is no rational reason to be at all bullish about Conservative prospects.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2021, 01:39:56 PM »

Though as far as Street goes: because he's done well at lobbying Westminster over a couple of issues - particularly transport stuff - there's a perception down there of his strength, status, name recognition and general popularity that is perhaps less than entirely realistic.* In the actual existing West Midlands he's mostly that rent-a-quote politician who seems to positively stalk camera crews from Midlands Today and generally has little to say for himself, but is very keen on saying it anyway. Not a weak incumbent as such, but not the widely-presumed electoral dynamo either.

*Not exactly the first provincial local government figure that this has been true of!
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Cassius
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« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2021, 02:12:04 PM »

Depending on ‘where we’re at’ with COVID whenever these elections go ahead, I’d imagine that turnout could be abysmal.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2021, 02:13:37 PM »

Depending on ‘where we’re at’ with COVID whenever these elections go ahead, I’d imagine that turnout could be abysmal.

Yes, a lot of the usual tricks used to get people to the polls in local elections might not be exactly viable...
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Coldstream
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« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2021, 06:51:29 AM »

Labour should win the west of England metro mayor, the Tory incumbent stood down (likely because he knew it’d be a big defeat) and they’ve got a non-name replacement. Whilst Labour’s candidate is a former MP/Minister.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2021, 10:05:44 AM »

Depending on ‘where we’re at’ with COVID whenever these elections go ahead, I’d imagine that turnout could be abysmal.

Making them mostly if not entirely by post could well counter that, however.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2021, 09:53:32 AM »

According to a statement in the Commons today, these are still going ahead as planned.

Hmmm, lets see........
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CrabCake
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2021, 02:18:27 PM »

The Liverpool Labour selection has become quite the mess.

Somerset County Council election is also off, as unitarization looms.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2021, 09:16:15 AM »

Also off in my patch (even though no "new" arrangement has been decided yet) plus N Yorkshire.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2021, 11:02:21 AM »



There's something really funny about the idea of London being chock a block full of statues. Best of all, if people are trying to push the envelope you'd get endless submissions for totally batsh**t reasons ("What do you mean, you're rejecting my statue of Hoxha?!!")

Sadly though, Fox is a hypocrite. He claims he doesn't want an ideological prism for his statue garden, and yet he wants people "we" (read: "he") can respect.
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beesley
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« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2021, 02:16:13 PM »



There's something really funny about the idea of London being chock a block full of statues. Best of all, if people are trying to push the envelope you'd get endless submissions for totally batsh**t reasons ("What do you mean, you're rejecting my statue of Hoxha?!!")

Sadly though, Fox is a hypocrite. He claims he doesn't want an ideological prism for his statue garden, and yet he wants people "we" (read: "he") can respect.

Being the mayoral election, which always attracts a motley crew of candidates, Fox is still somehow only the 5th most ridiculous candidate in the race.
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Estrella
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« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2021, 03:33:03 PM »

Quote
I want to create a Park of London Heroes that will be home to a statue of every single VC and GC winner

Quote
Since then, the medal has been awarded 1,358 times to 1,355 individual recipients.

Quote
Since its inception in 1940, the GC has been awarded 408 times

Quote
A life size sculpture of a standing human figure may range between $90,000 and $140,000

(1355+408)*90,000 = 159 million

Hm.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2021, 06:16:55 PM »

Whereto has been added a by election in Hartlepool. Lord Mandelson’s old seat, 70% Leave, Labour won here in 2019 largely because of an exceptionally strong Brexit Party vote.

With the vaccination programme going well and the Tories popular, they should certainly be hoping for this. It’ll also be a major test for Sir Keir.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2021, 08:43:36 AM »

We have a separate thread for that, sir Smiley
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #18 on: March 18, 2021, 10:25:35 AM »

We have a separate thread for that, sir Smiley
If you're referring to me, I saw that a little after posting...
Anyway, it's on the same day.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #19 on: March 18, 2021, 08:11:06 PM »

Apparently, the Tories are going to ditch SV in favour of FPTP for the mayoral elections.
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beesley
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« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2021, 04:18:08 AM »

Apparently, the Tories are going to ditch SV in favour of FPTP for the mayoral elections.

That's correct - it was in their manifesto.

The government have also cancelled the Somerset and North Yorkshire County Council Elections too this year because of their random decisions on where should have Unitary Authority status (so they claim).
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2021, 07:02:15 AM »

Apparently, the Tories are going to ditch SV in favour of FPTP for the mayoral elections.

That's correct - it was in their manifesto.

The government have also cancelled the Somerset and North Yorkshire County Council Elections too this year because of their random decisions on where should have Unitary Authority status (so they claim).

Cumbria as well <cough, cough>

Btw the change to FPTP only applies to some mayoral elections at present (and not to the assembly for London either) and no timetable has been given for passing the legislation that will be needed (and I know it was in the 20*17* manifesto, but the last one as well?)
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beesley
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« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2021, 08:00:57 AM »

Apparently, the Tories are going to ditch SV in favour of FPTP for the mayoral elections.

That's correct - it was in their manifesto.

The government have also cancelled the Somerset and North Yorkshire County Council Elections too this year because of their random decisions on where should have Unitary Authority status (so they claim).

Cumbria as well <cough, cough>

Btw the change to FPTP only applies to some mayoral elections at present (and not to the assembly for London either) and no timetable has been given for passing the legislation that will be needed (and I know it was in the 20*17* manifesto, but the last one as well?)

The 2019 manifesto removed the specific commitment to impose FPTP on any particular office's election (other than supporting maintaining it in Westminster elections) but it did commit to supporting FPTP more generally as the Tories have always promised.

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2021, 09:36:46 AM »

So not a cast iron "manifesto commitment" this time around, as I suspected.
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beesley
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« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2021, 04:19:43 PM »



I haven't watched it myself but the general consensus is that Bailey is making a fool of himself again, such as by referring to Sadiq Khan as the 'police chief'. Bailey also claimed he started the biggest youth project the world has ever seen. Sadiq Khan seems to have some good lines, though he was clearly wrong on my pet issue of transport. I wouldn't vote for either of them.

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