English mega-local elections, 2021

[Alcibiades]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

Although it’s no longer the case, from 1997-2005 Putney had the distinction of being the only Labour-held Westminster seat which had no Labour councillors representing it at the local level.

[Alcibiades]

BBC repeating the line that the London mayoral race is much closer than expected - apparently it’s 39% for Khan and 37% for Bailey. However, the more Tory boroughs are largely counting today, so Khan should probably win in the end.

[Alcibiades]

BBC repeating the line that the London mayoral race is much closer than expected - apparently it’s 39% for Khan and 37% for Bailey. However, the more Tory boroughs are largely counting today, so Khan should probably win in the end.

So Khan is up by 2 in mostly Conservative areas and that's a bad thing for him? So the media's ignorance of political geography is an international phenomenon. 

Well, it’s not just Conservative areas, although they are somewhat more Tory than the areas being counted tomorrow. They are right that this is much closer, even at this stage, than anyone had expected before.

[Alcibiades]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

[Alcibiades]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting tge same way for General and local elections.

Apparently this result was largely expected, but I’m not exactly sure why.

[Alcibiades]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

On the flip side, Khan has improved significantly in West Central compared to 2016. Goldsmith won by 25,000, Bailey has won by only 2,000.

[Alcibiades]

As expected, Khan has indeed won, but by a bit less than polls had suggested. 55-45 in the second round.
Bailey was bolstered by a good performance in Northern Outer London and indeed relatively in many of Labour’s strongholds in East London, although he underperformed Goldsmith in Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Merton, and the South West.

[Alcibiades]

As expected, Khan has indeed won, but by a bit less than polls had suggested. 55-45 in the second round.
Bailey was bolstered by a good performance in Northern Outer London and indeed relatively in many of Labour’s strongholds in East London, although he underperformed Goldsmith in Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Merton, and the South West.

Where did you find these more detailed results, I can only find results broken down by London assembly district?

Sorry, I was referring to the London Assembly districts - I just thought ‘Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea’ sounded better than the somewhat artificial ‘West Central’.

[Alcibiades]

As expected, Khan has indeed won, but by a bit less than polls had suggested. 55-45 in the second round.
Bailey was bolstered by a good performance in Northern Outer London and indeed relatively in many of Labour’s strongholds in East London, although he underperformed Goldsmith in Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Merton, and the South West.

I understand Bailey doing worse in the South West, but not in West Central. It seems to be full of partisan Tories who voted for Steve Norris and were voting Tory when William Hague was leader. The rest of London is still bad for the Tories and still full of non-Labour Remainers yet there were swings away from Khan. All I can think of is abysmal turnout in places like Belgravia.

I wonder if Bailey’s focus on stopping the “Outer London Tax” as he called it had anything to do with it, seeing as West Central has been paying the Congestion Charge for a while now.

[Alcibiades]

As expected, Khan has indeed won, but by a bit less than polls had suggested. 55-45 in the second round.
Bailey was bolstered by a good performance in Northern Outer London and indeed relatively in many of Labour’s strongholds in East London, although he underperformed Goldsmith in Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Merton, and the South West.

I understand Bailey doing worse in the South West, but not in West Central. It seems to be full of partisan Tories who voted for Steve Norris and were voting Tory when William Hague was leader. The rest of London is still bad for the Tories and still full of non-Labour Remainers yet there were swings away from Khan. All I can think of is abysmal turnout in places like Belgravia.

I wonder if Bailey’s focus on stopping the “Outer London Tax” as he called it had anything to do with it, seeing as West Central has been paying the Congestion Charge for a while now.

Quite possibly, and I don't think crime is high in much of West Central - another focus of his. If you live within the congestion charge, do you have to pay it?

Yes, but they get a 90% discount.

[Alcibiades]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as exceptionally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

[Alcibiades]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as abnormally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

And in these areas wealth correlates to Tory support I suppose. I was looking back at some old threads and AI said that in the 1980s it was the wealthier areas voting Liberal and the more 'hum-drum' areas voting Tory - so flipped I imagine.

Livingstone won both sides of the river in 2004. In fact Norris only won Barnes - is that the very wealthiest part of Richmond? Electoralcalculus has them all as 'very Remain.'

Yes, Barnes is probably the very wealthiest part of Richmond.

You see a similar pattern in Wimbledon, as well - the most Tory area is the Village, on top of the hill with lots of expensive detached houses (and lots of old people sitting on these nest eggs), while the Lib Dems/Labour do better in the areas at the bottom of the hill with more semis and terraced housing (which ares still very well-off by national standards).

Would you mind linking me that old thread you mentioned? I’d be very interested to read it.

[Alcibiades]

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

Esher and Walton would be solidly Tory (or at any rate much more Tory than at the last election) if it weren’t for the fact that its local MP is an arch-Brexiteer.

[Alcibiades]

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

Esher and Walton would be solidly Tory (or at any rate much more Tory than at the last election) if it weren’t for the fact that its local MP is an arch-Brexiteer.

Though it did vote solidly Tory in 2017. I haven’t watched this programme, but the character from the above description could well be a Brexiteer - ‘provincial’ and ‘right wing.’

Esher and Walton is definitely more similar to Richmond than such provincial right-wing towns in the South East.

[Alcibiades]

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.

[Alcibiades]

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.

I think the Beaconsfield constituency could be a good one. Very right wing (and marginal on Brexit), giving outfits like the Referendum Party good scores. Similarly East Surrey (Geoffrey Howe's constituency).

Maybe Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) in fact. Is is white-flight-ish?

Yes, Beaconsfield constituency is a good call (although probably not the town itself). What I do know about Northwest Surrey (Spelthorne and Michael Gove’s constituency Surrey Heath) is that it is the least wealthy part of the county. East Surrey is also similar.

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1395427386301288452?s=19
Surprised by Custom House, hadn't seen anything before to indicate it could go Tory. At the 2018 local elections it was no less strong for Labour than anywhere else in Newham.

I’m pleasantly surprised that my ward (Wimbledon Park) went Labour, considering that all three of its councillors are Tories, although I suppose it probably voted Lib Dem at the last GE.

[Alcibiades]

[snip]

Could you do Wimbledon?

[Alcibiades]

[snip]

Could you do Wimbledon?

Khan: 13,962; 36.52%
Bailey: 13,358; 35.63%


cf. 2019 general
Conservatives: 20,373; 38.42%
Labour: 12,543; 23.65%
Liberal Democrats: 19,745; 37.24%

Fascinating - for Wimbledon to be going Labour when they are only narrowly winning London as a whole is certainly a sign that things are changing here, and not in the Tories’ direction. I might be biased, but I would certainly say it’s one of the most interesting constituencies to watch in the entire country, with the potential for a three-way battleground. At this stage, I would peg the Tories as underdogs at the next election, particularly if Stephen Hammond retires, but they’ll still have a good chance as long as the Lib Dems and Labour split the anti-Tory vote fairly evenly.

[Alcibiades]

Why did Labour crash so much in Kensington? It was close in both 2017 and 2019. It's especially bizarre given their gains elsewhere in that part of London, and the fact that Labour has actually won the seat federally in a recent election unlike Wimbledon or London and Westminster. London and Westminster does seem like an underrated flip for the election when Labour next wins government.

Khan significantly underperformed Labour's showing in the Assembly vote in many places.

That doesn't really explain Kensington though, as whilst he did underperform in North Kensington, he actually overperformed Labour's assembly vote in South Kensington (as was typical in posh areas).

It has been something of a trend that Khan overperformed Labour in places which swung to him, and underperformed Labour in places which swung away from him.

Not particularly surprising considering that realignments tend to happen from the bottom down, i.e. voters will switch allegiance in high-profile races where they know the individual candidates well first, but stick with their old party in more local, less publicised contests for longer.