English mega-local elections, 2021

[Geoffrey Howe]

As expected, Khan has indeed won, but by a bit less than polls had suggested. 55-45 in the second round.
Bailey was bolstered by a good performance in Northern Outer London and indeed relatively in many of Labour’s strongholds in East London, although he underperformed Goldsmith in Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Merton, and the South West.

I understand Bailey doing worse in the South West, but not in West Central. It seems to be full of partisan Tories who voted for Steve Norris and were voting Tory when William Hague was leader. The rest of London is still bad for the Tories and still full of non-Labour Remainers yet there were swings away from Khan. All I can think of is abysmal turnout in places like Belgravia.

I wonder if Bailey’s focus on stopping the “Outer London Tax” as he called it had anything to do with it, seeing as West Central has been paying the Congestion Charge for a while now.

Quite possibly, and I don't think crime is high in much of West Central - another focus of his. If you live within the congestion charge, do you have to pay it?

[Alcibiades]

As expected, Khan has indeed won, but by a bit less than polls had suggested. 55-45 in the second round.
Bailey was bolstered by a good performance in Northern Outer London and indeed relatively in many of Labour’s strongholds in East London, although he underperformed Goldsmith in Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Merton, and the South West.

I understand Bailey doing worse in the South West, but not in West Central. It seems to be full of partisan Tories who voted for Steve Norris and were voting Tory when William Hague was leader. The rest of London is still bad for the Tories and still full of non-Labour Remainers yet there were swings away from Khan. All I can think of is abysmal turnout in places like Belgravia.

I wonder if Bailey’s focus on stopping the “Outer London Tax” as he called it had anything to do with it, seeing as West Central has been paying the Congestion Charge for a while now.

Quite possibly, and I don't think crime is high in much of West Central - another focus of his. If you live within the congestion charge, do you have to pay it?

Yes, but they get a 90% discount.

[Geoffrey Howe]

So effectively they don't pay congestion charge. Much of West Central is outside the zone though.

[beesley]

Seeing as nobody posted them, here are the London Assembly Results:

Labour: 11 (-1, City and East, North East, Enfield and Haringey, Barnet and Camden, Greenwich and Lewisham, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Lambeth and Southwark, Merton and Wandsworth, two list seats)
Conservative: 9 (+1, West Central, Croydon and Sutton, Bexley and Bromley, Havering and Redbridge, South West, four list seats)
Green: 3 (+1, all List)
LD: 2 (+1, all List)

In terms of vote share on the list:

Labour: 38.1%
Conservative: 30.7%
Green: 11.8%
LD: 7.3%
Women's Equality: 2.2%
Rejoin EU: 1.9%
Animal Welfare: 1.7%
Christian People's Alliance: 1.1%
UKIP: 1.0%

All other parties below 1%.

[Hnv1]

I hope the Green vote is a protest vote. if 10% of English voters truly fancy the bonkerish UK Green party then England is utterly ****ed. This isn't the German Greens, it's the fringe of the old LibDem sandals brigade and loonyleft. 

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I hope the Green vote is a protest vote. if 10% of English voters truly fancy the bonkerish UK Green party then England is utterly ****ed. This isn't the German Greens, it's the fringe of the old LibDem sandals brigade and loonyleft. 

The German Greens support Merkel, and while she's less terrible than most right of center leaders, she is right of center, and so really shouldn't be compared to a more left party.

[Hnv1]

I hope the Green vote is a protest vote. if 10% of English voters truly fancy the bonkerish UK Green party then England is utterly ****ed. This isn't the German Greens, it's the fringe of the old LibDem sandals brigade and loonyleft. 

The German Greens support Merkel, and while she's less terrible than most right of center leaders, she is right of center, and so really shouldn't be compared to a more left party.

I don't see the rebuke here. As I said the German Greens are more pragmatic and normal (despite some fringe characters). The UK Green is a banter party of incompetent quacks

[Blair]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

[beesley]

I hope the Green vote is a protest vote. if 10% of English voters truly fancy the bonkerish UK Green party then England is utterly ****ed. This isn't the German Greens, it's the fringe of the old LibDem sandals brigade and loonyleft.  

Greens always outperform their national figures in local elections. They are for example the opposition on Solihull Council but would have no chance of winning either Solihull or Meriden at a general election. Most of their other gains were fairly isolated. In any case around 9% of Germans voted for Die Linke who are far closer to the English Greens on most issues, at the last election, so the comparison is a bit disingenuous.

Naturally the Greens would perform better under PR as they always have done but that doesn't mean they would get 10%.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

[Hnv1]

I hope the Green vote is a protest vote. if 10% of English voters truly fancy the bonkerish UK Green party then England is utterly ****ed. This isn't the German Greens, it's the fringe of the old LibDem sandals brigade and loonyleft.  

Greens always outperform their national figures in local elections. They are for example the opposition on Solihull Council but would have no chance of winning either Solihull or Meriden at a general election. Most of their other gains were fairly isolated. In any case around 9% of Germans voted for Die Linke who are far closer to the English Greens on most issues, at the last election, so the comparison is a bit disingenuous.

Without DDR pensioners voting for Die Linke to look after them/Östalgia, then the left would been far below the threshold there.

[Alcibiades]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as exceptionally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as abnormally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

And in these areas wealth correlates to Tory support I suppose. I was looking back at some old threads and AI said that in the 1980s it was the wealthier areas voting Liberal and the more 'hum-drum' areas voting Tory - so flipped I imagine.

Livingstone won both sides of the river in 2004. In fact Norris only won Barnes - is that the very wealthiest part of Richmond? Electoralcalculus has them all as 'very Remain.'

[Alcibiades]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as abnormally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

And in these areas wealth correlates to Tory support I suppose. I was looking back at some old threads and AI said that in the 1980s it was the wealthier areas voting Liberal and the more 'hum-drum' areas voting Tory - so flipped I imagine.

Livingstone won both sides of the river in 2004. In fact Norris only won Barnes - is that the very wealthiest part of Richmond? Electoralcalculus has them all as 'very Remain.'

Yes, Barnes is probably the very wealthiest part of Richmond.

You see a similar pattern in Wimbledon, as well - the most Tory area is the Village, on top of the hill with lots of expensive detached houses (and lots of old people sitting on these nest eggs), while the Lib Dems/Labour do better in the areas at the bottom of the hill with more semis and terraced housing (which ares still very well-off by national standards).

Would you mind linking me that old thread you mentioned? I’d be very interested to read it.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as abnormally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

And in these areas wealth correlates to Tory support I suppose. I was looking back at some old threads and AI said that in the 1980s it was the wealthier areas voting Liberal and the more 'hum-drum' areas voting Tory - so flipped I imagine.

Livingstone won both sides of the river in 2004. In fact Norris only won Barnes - is that the very wealthiest part of Richmond? Electoralcalculus has them all as 'very Remain.'

Yes, Barnes is probably the very wealthiest part of Richmond.

You see a similar pattern in Wimbledon, as well - the most Tory area is the Village, on top of the hill with lots of expensive detached houses (and lots of old people sitting on these nest eggs), while the Lib Dems/Labour do better in the areas at the bottom of the hill with more semis and terraced housing (which ares still very well-off by national standards).

Would you mind linking me that old thread you mentioned? I’d be very interested to read it.

Village is absurdly Tory. In 2008 I believe it voted 78% for Boris - only 1 point behind Belgravia and Royal Hospital.

Here’s the quote, part of the thread from 2007.

For what it's worth, the LibDem vote in SW London isn't nearly as well-heeled as is often assumed; the richest wards tend to vote Tory these days (an interesting change from the 1980's, when the Liberals were strongest in the most middle upper class wards, while the Tories did best in the more hum-drum areas).

[jaichind]

When will BBC compute the national equivalent vote share ?

[Geoffrey Howe]

When will BBC compute the national equivalent vote share ?

For the local elections in England? I don’t know, but it’s not terribly useful. I think John Curtice had some model which they published creating an equivalent in a general election.

[Blair]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

They have a natural base both at the Parliamentary level & run both Richmond & Kingston Council- the candidate is relatively well know for a list (he's a council leader at Richmond) and frankly they were running a complete nobody for Mayor- hence the topline result.

There also would have been some tactical voting going on by the 'Winning Here!!' leaflets- in terms of demographics & areas I can't give a good answer other than saying that there's a certain threshold in London where wealthy areas basically become too wealthy & start voting Tory.

[Blair]

Again I'm not a data expert at all but London, particularly West London has seen huge swings over the last 10 years, let alone the last 20- a combination of internal migration within London, migration into (and out of the city) and just a general well change is a big factor

[Geoffrey Howe]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

They have a natural base both at the Parliamentary level & run both Richmond & Kingston Council- the candidate is relatively well know for a list (he's a council leader at Richmond) and frankly they were running a complete nobody for Mayor- hence the topline result.

There also would have been some tactical voting going on by the 'Winning Here!!' leaflets- in terms of demographics & areas I can't give a good answer other than saying that there's a certain threshold in London where wealthy areas basically become too wealthy & start voting Tory.

I get why the LDs do well there; I was asking about the GLA results in particular. The candidate being leader of Richmond council makes sense. So could it be that Hounslow voted Labour, Richmond LD and Kingston Tory?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Again I'm not a data expert at all but London, particularly West London has seen huge swings over the last 10 years, let alone the last 20- a combination of internal migration within London, migration into (and out of the city) and just a general well change is a big factor

Can you expand on this? I suspect a lot of people moved out of places like Belgravia thanks to COVID, hence the swing away from the Tories in West Central. We shall need the ward results!

[CumbrianLefty]

When will BBC compute the national equivalent vote share ?

They have done, and it works out at a Tory lead of about 6 points over Labour (maybe not as high as some might have expected given the seat changes in at least some areas)

[Blair]

Again I'm not a data expert at all but London, particularly West London has seen huge swings over the last 10 years, let alone the last 20- a combination of internal migration within London, migration into (and out of the city) and just a general well change is a big factor

Can you expand on this? I suspect a lot of people moved out of places like Belgravia thanks to COVID, hence the swing away from the Tories in West Central. We shall need the ward results!

I meant London in general rather than West Central; but the trend has been that middle class graduates (both these from London & those from other parts of the country) can't really afford to live in the central zones of London so have had to move out to the further edges- this is both the case for those living in rented accommodation & those wishing to buy family homes- although the later now requires you to most likely leave London- which might explain some other electoral results! 

I'm not sure of the numbers but my hunch would say that the age of the people moving in has meant that London has remained a relatively young city in terms of its voting habits.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yes, though Conservatives do better locally (local, mayoral elections) than nationally.

[jaichind]

When will BBC compute the national equivalent vote share ?

They have done, and it works out at a Tory lead of about 6 points over Labour (maybe not as high as some might have expected given the seat changes in at least some areas)

I found it.  Thanks