English mega-local elections, 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

Though today it is being briefed that they might be "on" again.

As with so much to do with this government, clear as mud

[CumbrianLefty]

Depending on ‘where we’re at’ with COVID whenever these elections go ahead, I’d imagine that turnout could be abysmal.

Making them mostly if not entirely by post could well counter that, however.

[CumbrianLefty]

According to a statement in the Commons today, these are still going ahead as planned.

Hmmm, lets see........

[CumbrianLefty]

Also off in my patch (even though no "new" arrangement has been decided yet) plus N Yorkshire.

[CumbrianLefty]

We have a separate thread for that, sir

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently, the Tories are going to ditch SV in favour of FPTP for the mayoral elections.

That's correct - it was in their manifesto.

The government have also cancelled the Somerset and North Yorkshire County Council Elections too this year because of their random decisions on where should have Unitary Authority status (so they claim).

Cumbria as well <cough, cough>

Btw the change to FPTP only applies to some mayoral elections at present (and not to the assembly for London either) and no timetable has been given for passing the legislation that will be needed (and I know it was in the 20*17* manifesto, but the last one as well?)

[CumbrianLefty]

So not a cast iron "manifesto commitment" this time around, as I suspected.

[CumbrianLefty]

Goldsmith's 2016 campaign says hi

[CumbrianLefty]

No fewer than 20 (!) candidates will contest the London mayoralty.

(and yes, a certain embittered divorcee is one of them)

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories weren't winning the mayoralty in 2016 whatever happened, no.

Whether their actual result was the best they could achieve is a slightly different question.

And of course the Goldsmith campaign will have appealed to certain people, but the reputational cost to him was considerable - and probably something he never fully recovered from.

[CumbrianLefty]

The leader of Reform UK Richard Tice, is his party's candidate in Havering and Redbridge

Is he not running in the Hartlepool By-election on the same day as well, busy bee.

No, he stood there in the last GE but isn't this time.

Instead their candidate is someone called John Prescott (no relation)

[CumbrianLefty]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

Tories were still run very close there in 2018 (indeed closer than simple seat totals would suggest)

[CumbrianLefty]

This so called "working class coalition" is long term fool's gold, though - giving how much it depends on sectors of the electorate that are both declining *and* ageing.

How much rich boomer pensioners who just happened to do a manual job once should be considered "working class" is a moot point in any case, of course. When traditional A/B/C1/C2/D/E categories have become almost totally decoupled from *income*, how meaningful is "class" anyway?

(and the latest Survation poll showed Labour well ahead amongst LOW INCOME voters, as ever)

[CumbrianLefty]

Final results coming out on *Monday* is unprecedented in modern times.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some briefing that London will be a relatively safe Labour win rather than the blowout landslide that some predicted

One factor mentioned which may actually be relevant, rather than merely customary pre-election expectations management, is a lot of younger people/students not actually being resident in London right now due to Covid (though you might hope pollsters made some attempt to account for that)

[CumbrianLefty]

Voted myself at lunchtime - only the PCC election still on after the County Council vote got postponed.

Pretty dead at the polling station as a result, as you might expect.

And all of three parties to choose from!

(Lab 1st LibDem 2nd - surprisingly its the Tories who "unluckily" miss out)

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

Still, that's better than the GE when there's no way that they'll have won so much as a single ward there.

Yes, its maybe worth noting that even in Labour's worst local results they aren't usually doing worse *than in the 2019 GE* - the Hartlepool byelection very much stands out in that regard.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour have not won Liverpool mayor outright, 38.5% of the vote for Labour in round 1. They are going into the runoff with Stephen Yip, and Independent. There are issues with Liverpool Labour as a local party, so this is partially a symptom of that, but Joanne Anderson will likely win in round 2.

Is this intentional understatement?

[CumbrianLefty]

FWIW the london results are so badly done- you only get the 1st round results- I think in both those seats Khan wins on 2nd preferences but it's still a big worry & he appears to be running below the Labour ticket (but that's because the assembly seats are FPP so sees some herding?)

Yes, indications are that Khan is improving his position when second votes are taken into account.

[CumbrianLefty]

Khan appears to be about 53-47 ahead *now* when second votes are taken into account.

Given the areas still to count, it is hard not to see that gap increasing significantly.

[CumbrianLefty]

When will BBC compute the national equivalent vote share ?

They have done, and it works out at a Tory lead of about 6 points over Labour (maybe not as high as some might have expected given the seat changes in at least some areas)

[CumbrianLefty]

That's not absolutely awful for Labour. Though the Lib Dem vote will definitely not be as high; I'm not sure how it will translate.

The Con/Lab votes are always lower in PNS than would be the case in a GE, the LibDem vote higher (these days, when most big LibDem groups are your local NIMBY Alliance and voting for them means nothing for GE intentions, much higher).

I don't get how the Georgists are in the same party as the Biggest NIMBY's , it doesn't make any sense.

New to the LibDems?

[CumbrianLefty]

And they only just lost Swaythling, where they were a poor third not a million years ago.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

It's also quite a large area. Filton is actually the largest UK settlement beginning with F, and I doubt people in the US equivalent want to be governed by Dallas.

Now there's a classic bit of useless information

Though it is actually joined to the Bristol conurbation and has been for ages.

(and the likes of Yate still aren't)

[CumbrianLefty]

People are of course influenced there by a media that most certainly does that.