English mega-local elections, 2021

[Blair]

Interesting point re Sadiq not being as hated in outer london; I wonder how much of this is down to the demographic changes in these seats (IDS seat seems to demonstrate this perfectly). I should know where but I know that Labour came very close to winning one of the GLA seats in 2016 which has always been held by the Tories.

I'd be shocked if Sadiq didn't win; there was a time when he was expected to win on the first ballot but in a strange way I actually think that covid has helped cover up some of his bigger political issues around crime or his fare freeze; while it's depressing that the Mayor of London is becoming a more pointless job with it's roles stripped away it does make it a lot easier for Labour to win.

Re the other Metro Mayors; there was a time when Andy Street was expected to have a tough race. I know that Sion Simon was a hilarously weak choice for 2016 but I don't know how much of this race relies on offsetting the margin in seats where the Labour vote has frankly vanished in the last 10 years.

The same seems to apply for the Tees Valley race; although it on paper has a much stronger Labour vote & tradition- but I might be wrong about which result was more shocking?

I assume with the way that our coverage works these races will be the 'test' set for Starmer rather than the other races

[Blair]

Why is Sadiq so far ahead in the opinion polls for mayor? He hasn’t been a particularly good mayor in my opinion, but objectively he hasn’t done all that much. Now he has done some stuff which upsets outer London voters - for example the ULEZ expansion*. So I’m not sure why he is so far ahead in the polls. Ken Livingstone never got over 57% of the vote yet some polls have Khan >60%. Clearly Shaun Bailey isn’t a gifted campaigner, but Khan is doing very well in the first preferences.

All I can think of is that the Tories have become significantly more unpopular in London thanks to Brexit. But then Zac Goldsmith wasn’t crushed (and did very well in places like Richmond) but he was campaigning for Brexit and had a lot of issues around Islamophobia.

*Although that was sort of Mr Shapps trying to make Khan unpopular...

The extension hasn't come in yet, it's not a lot of money & it's not a really huge issue among Labours coalition; out of my school friends in London only 1 of us has a car.

There's the predictable effort by the Tories to call it an 'outer London tax' but I actually think TFL & London being broke actually makes it a weaker attack.  Air pollution is also an issue that polls higher than you'd expect & the fact we've had a congestion charge has meant its a bit pre baked in.

But yes Brexit (and the cultural implications of this) is a major driver- along with the fact that the Conservatives Electoral Strategy has abandoned even trying to win the old Lab-Tory marginals- since they're not trying to win those London seats lost in 2015 it has a general drag down.

Sadiq is also to his credit a very effective (and under-estimated) campaigner; mayoral elections are already relatively low turnout & people don't know about the powers or role of the Mayor so they want someone who is a figurehead for their values.

[Blair]

My point is that Shaun Bailey is somehow both running on the idea that TFL is broke but equally Londoners should not have to pay anything extra to bail it out- which has led him to the perverse and unpopular solution of having to sell off the names of tube stations, something that is extremely unpopular.

There's also the reality that transport policy doesn't really fire people up at elections.. and it's not that unpopular. The below is a push poll with an agenda but it shows that running against a £12.50 isn't going to win you an election in a city with already low levels of car usage.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/drivers-polluting-vehicles-charged-drive-london-poll-ulez-north-south-circular-roads-b932381.html

[Blair]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

[Blair]

Some briefing that London will be a relatively safe Labour win rather than the blowout landslide that some predicted

[Blair]

I have found it strange how little of the coverage has said that you’re actually in a minority if you even vote in these elections!

[Blair]

FWIW the london results are so badly done- you only get the 1st round results- I think in both those seats Khan wins on 2nd preferences but it's still a big worry & he appears to be running below the Labour ticket (but that's because the assembly seats are FPP so sees some herding?)

[Blair]

A point I never realised- a lot of ballots get rejected for having too many votes (you get 2 for the mayoral elections) - 8,000 in Ealing & Hillington alone!

[Blair]

The 'joke' vote also seems to be quite high...

[Blair]

West Midlands:

31.23% turnout

Conservative: 299,318 Votes - 49%
Labour: 244,009 Votes - 40%
Green: 35,559 Votes - 6%
Lib-Dem: 21,836 Votes - 3.5%
Reform: 13,568 Votes - 2.5%

Second preferences should benefit Labour, but Street wins just off the Reform votes. Street increased first preferences by 7% from 2017.

Sadly that's actually a better result than I expected

[Blair]

Looks like Labour just might win the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Metro Mayor... they came third in 2017.

Andy Street wins 54.5-45.5

This is funnily enough what I would have predicted last week when my assumption was a mixed night for Labour- so in what was a bad night elsewhere this wasn't too bad

[Blair]

This is the one reason why it was relatively stupid to hold the Hartlepool by election at the same time; without the results yesterday would have been seen as rather poor, rather than apocalyptic (which is the current mood in the party)

[Blair]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

[Blair]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

They have a natural base both at the Parliamentary level & run both Richmond & Kingston Council- the candidate is relatively well know for a list (he's a council leader at Richmond) and frankly they were running a complete nobody for Mayor- hence the topline result.

There also would have been some tactical voting going on by the 'Winning Here!!' leaflets- in terms of demographics & areas I can't give a good answer other than saying that there's a certain threshold in London where wealthy areas basically become too wealthy & start voting Tory.

[Blair]

Again I'm not a data expert at all but London, particularly West London has seen huge swings over the last 10 years, let alone the last 20- a combination of internal migration within London, migration into (and out of the city) and just a general well change is a big factor

[Blair]

Again I'm not a data expert at all but London, particularly West London has seen huge swings over the last 10 years, let alone the last 20- a combination of internal migration within London, migration into (and out of the city) and just a general well change is a big factor

Can you expand on this? I suspect a lot of people moved out of places like Belgravia thanks to COVID, hence the swing away from the Tories in West Central. We shall need the ward results!

I meant London in general rather than West Central; but the trend has been that middle class graduates (both these from London & those from other parts of the country) can't really afford to live in the central zones of London so have had to move out to the further edges- this is both the case for those living in rented accommodation & those wishing to buy family homes- although the later now requires you to most likely leave London- which might explain some other electoral results! 

I'm not sure of the numbers but my hunch would say that the age of the people moving in has meant that London has remained a relatively young city in terms of its voting habits.