Will Trump launch a coup during Biden's term?

[compucomp]

It's abundantly clear now that Trump will not concede, possibly ever. His "voter fraud" arguments are now the mainstream position of the Republican party; over 2/3 of House Republicans will vote to reject Biden electors. Trump's lawsuits have gotten zero traction in the courts, and the Electoral Count Act will not save him either, so he has no other option if he wants to take back power.

Right now the military is firmly on the side of the Constitution and will not back Trump. However, if Trump and the Republican Party continue to insist for months or years that Biden is an illegitimate president elected fraudulently, I think it's quite possible a rogue faction of the military will emerge to support a Trump coup, allured by promises of power and seeing that almost half the population doesn't accept President Biden. Trump already has the support of his militias will also probably find support among police forces.

Let's ignore the question whether the coup will succeed.

It's even possible that the Republican Party will start openly calling for a coup. Opposition parties will do this on occasion in countries like Pakistan and Thailand where the government is elected but the military is directly involved in politics. I'm voting for 2 but to me 1 is a realistic possibility.

[Kuumo]

No.

The reason that this won't happen is that if the military wasn't willing to overturn the election for Trump when he was President, they certainly won't do it when Trump is a private citizen facing countless lawsuits. It's possible that some QAnon and militia crazies show up in front of the White House with lots of guns and try to depose Biden that way, but they would easily be stopped by the police and the military if it came down to that. This would be an attempted rebellion, but it wouldn't have Trump or any active duty servicemen involved, so I wouldn't consider it an attempted coup.

[President Johnson]

Neither would the military stand for it, nor is Trump smart enough to orechestrate a full blown coup.

[Torie]

Calm down.

[brucejoel99]

[PSOL]

He needs to be detained ASAP

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Nah, he's far too lazy for that.

[2952-0-0]

He was stupid enough to tweet about his plans to rig the election months in advance, so he will be stupid enough to tweet about his coup plot months in advance.

[beaver2.0]

If he was going to launch a coup why do it from a weaker base of power?  It seems like an infinitely smarter choice for him, if he is going to do a coup, to do it while he is still president.

[Stuart98]

He would if he could but there's no way in hell he will.

[Crumpets]

No. Imagine the 1991 Soviet coup but with the GKChP being just one sad Trump. Even if he tries, it wouldn't be successful enough to make the 6 o'clock news.

[Former President tack50]

Maybe some crazy cultists will pull off a terrorist attack. Possibly even a full on presidential assassination even if that is extremely unikely. (Would resurrect the 20 years curse though)

But a full on coup is outright impossible

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Voted for option 2. I'm sure Trump and people around him will make dark noises on Newsmax and Parler for a while, but nothing will come of it. These men are cowards.

[DrScholl]

I think he will try, but nothing will come of it.

[Bootes Void]

How do you stop the tank of the trump army?

You shoot the guy pushing it

[Indy Texas]

Avignon Presidency in Palm Beach?

[beaver2.0]

How do you stop the tank of the trump army?

You shoot the guy pushing it

As much as I dislike Trump I’m going to have to say executing him is bad. 

Also, I think if Biden was stupid enough to do that he’d unleash a sh**tstorm the likes of which Trump himself could never have drummed up.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If he couldn't pull one off with his party of hacks while in office, he certainly won't while out of it. The closest thing to a "coup" we'll get from him are near-constant Twitter ramblings like we've already been getting for almost two months.

However, I expect many of his supporters to act on his behalf in a scattershot fashion over these next four years.

[DINGO Joe]

Yes, with the support of the Russians, but a group of plucky teens in the Rockies will thwart them.

[Red Velvet]

Well, he can absolutely try. That’s what he’s trying to do by pressuring electoral authorities to magically find him more than 11k votes. Who knows whether he plans to threaten or buy these people and others? International news at least are all shocked with an US president attempting a coup.

If you mean whether he will achieve it... then nah. For established democracies to have a coup you need either:

1. Massive popular support on the streets pressuring for a sudden rupture to happen.
2. A loooong time of the democracy being internally weakened slowly a la Hungary, which took a decade.

Trump had only 4 messy years with no clear strategy, needed reelection to achieve (2). And US population is too divided for (1), even if Trumpers were to suddenly go to the streets there would certainly be a counter street movement against him and pro-democracy.

But it depends on how US will react once Biden is in power too. Lack of punishment is something that normalizes certain anti-Democratic behaviors. Trump not going to prison for his multiple crimes validates his future actions and allows him to go even further if he wants to. And that can contribute for (2) if it becomes a long term trend, like if he runs again in 2024.

[Blue3]

He'll try stupid stuff via Twitter, claiming there was election fraud and trying to people to give him money to get a new lawsuit, going from now until the day he dies. With our luck, we'll still be hearing about this in the 2040's.

[Estrella]

It is incredibly insulting to all Pinochets and Maduros and Amins of the world to assume that Trump has the capacity to organize a military coup.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

It is incredibly insulting to all Pinochets and Maduros and Amins of the world to assume that Trump has the capacity to organize a military coup.

Looking specifically at Maduro, it's not hard to see that Trump could've easily become an actual undisputed dictator in a country with much weaker institutions than the US

[Samof94]

It is incredibly insulting to all Pinochets and Maduros and Amins of the world to assume that Trump has the capacity to organize a military coup.

Looking specifically at Maduro, it's not hard to see that Trump could've easily become an actual undisputed dictator in a country with much weaker institutions than the US

Indeed. The guy was the hand picked successor to a guy far more dangerous than Trump. Maduro claimed Chavez came back as a little bird to advise him, has told his people to eat rabbits, and used caudal homophobia by saying he has a wife.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lol no.  Trump may be many things, but brave has never been one of them.  He talks a good game on TV, social media, or before crowds of carefully screened diehard supporters, but unless he (rightly or wrongly) believes that there is an unequal power dynamic skewing things heavily in his favor, Trump’s go-to move when push truly comes to shove is generally to fold like a beach chair and simply let his opponent take him to the cleaners at the last minute...only to then go around insisting to anyone who will listen that it was really a very big victory for him.  The man has the backbone of a sea slug and would *never* try something like this when he was no longer commander and chief of the armed forces.

TL; DR: Even Trump knows he’d never get away with it once he left office and more importantly, the man is fundamentally a coward.