Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It seems First Nations turnout really bad.  Big reason Tories won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and Kenora and neither was even close.  On paper shouldn't be Tory with large First Nation's population and Tories usually get in single digits amongst First Nations.  But seems for whatever reason many don't show up, while due to re-alignment Tories now dominate white voters in both unlike in past thus why win it as they show up.

They sometimes vote and when they do the outcomes are quite different. As for why they have only a semi-detached relationship with the Canadian polity, well, is that really such a great shock considering how it has treated them over the decades? The white vote in D-M-CR has been capable of voting monolithically for the designated party of the Right for ages now, so I don't think we need to bring questionable notions of 'realignment' (in Canada? What value does such a concept have in a place where people change their vote more frequently than they change their bedsheets?) into this.

That might be true for the federal ridings but what I've heard the white population in Athbaska is negligible, the Saskatchewan party victory was more powered by Metis Voters that they apparently managed to win 95/5 over the usual 60/40 margins. We shouldn't treet first nation voters as some sort of monolith either.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think people should note that while Federarly the first nation voters who do vote give minimal support to the conservative party, that bias does not extend down to provincial politics. Athabasca isn't the only monolithically first nation riding the conservative party was able to win. The Torgatta Mountains* another almost entirely indigenous riding elected a PC representative with 89% of the vote last year due to backlash against several project cancellations by the incumbent Liberal government. I think the fact that African Americans are so universally hostile to the republican party distorts analysis of other minority group voting patterns.

*(though the fact she has left the party and now sits as an independent, and the fact that she got exactly 420 votes is telling)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lela_Evans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torngat_Mountains_(electoral_district)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think people should note that while Federarly the first nation voters who do vote give minimal support to the conservative party, that bias does not extend down to provincial politics. Athabasca isn't the only monolithically first nation riding the conservative party was able to win. The Torgatta Mountains* another almost entirely indigenous riding elected a PC representative with 89% of the vote last year due to backlash against several project cancellations by the incumbent Liberal government. I think the fact that African Americans are so universally hostile to the republican party distorts analysis of other minority group voting patterns.

*(though the fact she has left the party and now sits as an independent, and the fact that she got exactly 420 votes is telling)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lela_Evans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torngat_Mountains_(electoral_district)

Kind of funny that you brought her up as an example, as she just crossed the floor to the NDP yesterday.

Haha, I saw the news-story as well. I do think it's still illustrative of how weird politics get's in these sort of isolated indigenous ridings and how loose party affiliation is.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I realy don't understand why Albertan Progressive are celebrating Brian Jean's victory if he does replace Kenny he'll be even more right-wing and more likely to win the next election.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Fort Whyte is the richest riding in Manitoba. It’s the equivalent of very rich bedrock Tory seats in the southeast of England that might vote Lib Dem as a protest against the Tories but would never vote Labour

Isn't it heavily visible minority as well ?