Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[Hatman 🍁]

I believe all provincial legislatures and the House of Commons have no vacancies at the moment, but here is our annual thread on by-elections in Canada.

There is at least one "major" by-election coming up, voters in Scarborough—Agincourt go to the polls on January 15 to elect a new city councillor. There are 27 (!) candidates to running to replace Jim Karygiannis (also the riding's MP from 1988 to 2014) who was kicked off council for overspending in the last election.

I'm told the main candidates are Christina Liu (backed by most of the Tory establishment, but notably not the riding's MPP) Tony Luk (backed by some local Liberals), Nick Mantas (endorsed by the riding's MPP), Roland Lin (ran in 2018) and Manna Wong (progressive, is the ward's public school trustee)

[mileslunn]

One that may happen if leadership held this year is Vancouver-Quilchena.  If next BC Liberal member is not a member of caucus, pretty sure Wilkinson steps aside and next leader runs in his riding as a fairly safe BC Liberal riding and party probably wants to move away from Wilkinson.  He might resign anyways.

Alberta would be interesting as UCP has really tanked in polls and if NDP were to flip a supposedly safe UCP seat that might lead to major changes and possibly even some in party trying to push Kenney in.  Most UCP types loathe NDP and mere thought of them winning in 2023 will push them to dump leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results from yesterday's by-election in Ward 22 Scarborough-Agincourt (Toronto City Council):

*Nick Mantas (centre/centre-right) 3,261 (27.0%) - former chief of staff for Karygiannis
*Manna Wong (progressive) 3,038 (25.1%) - the ward's public school trustee
*Christina Liu (conservative) 1,760 (14.6%) - entrepreneur, defacto Tory candidate
*Rocco Achampong (populist) 968 (8.0%) - lawyer, ran for mayor in 2010
*Tony Luk (Liberal) 848 (7.0%) - entrepreneur
*Others 2,213 (18.3%)

Not a bad result for a progressive for a place like Agincourt. So very close

[Benjamin Frank]

There is an upcoming Richmond City Council by-election here in British Columbia to replace Kelly Greene who was elected to the provincial legislature.  There will be other municipal by-elections as a result of the provincial election as well.

I gather former School Trustee and city council candidate Andy Hobbs is the center right candidate while current School Trustee Ken Hamaguchi is the center left candidate.  Not sure if the Greens are running a high profile candidate or not.

https://www.richmond-news.com/local-news/second-candidate-declares-intention-to-run-in-richmond-by-election-3145117

https://www.richmond-news.com/election-2018-archive/pro-sogi-trustee-candidates-dominate-richmond-school-board-3086219

[Hatman 🍁]

Huh, I guess there's been a dearth of provincial by-elections this year. Yesterday, there was one in Cornwall-Meadowbank, PEI to replace Heath MacDonald (Lib) who was elected to federal Parliament. The seat was considered a safe Liberal seat, as the Tories haven't won it in 36 years; it was in fact the only riding the Liberals won in the 2000 Tory landslide.

In typical PEI fashion though, you could throw all expectations out the window. Of course, the popular Tories won!

Results:
Mark McLane (PC): 40.0% (+22.5)
Jane MacIsaac (Lib): 33.2% (-14.7)
Todd MacLean (Grn): 23.4% (-9.8)
Larry Hale (NDP): 3.4% (+2.0)

PC GAIN from Liberal (Swing: 18.6%)

[RogueBeaver]

As expected, PSPP will not run to replace Catherine Fournier in Marie-Victorin because he'd have lost, probably badly. Legault said he'll give Longueuil voters a break and won't call it till the new year. Martine Ouellet will be running there for her new greenish splinter party, PLQ isn't contesting it. CAQ and QS will be contesting.

[DC Al Fine]

Huh, I guess there's been a dearth of provincial by-elections this year. Yesterday, there was one in Cornwall-Meadowbank, PEI to replace Heath MacDonald (Lib) who was elected to federal Parliament. The seat was considered a safe Liberal seat, as the Tories haven't won it in 36 years; it was in fact the only riding the Liberals won in the 2000 Tory landslide.

In typical PEI fashion though, you could throw all expectations out the window. Of course, the popular Tories won!

Results:
Mark McLane (PC): 40.0% (+22.5)
Jane MacIsaac (Lib): 33.2% (-14.7)
Todd MacLean (Grn): 23.4% (-9.8)
Larry Hale (NDP): 3.4% (+2.0)

PC GAIN from Liberal (Swing: 18.6%)

Clearly this means that the federal Tories will win a majority and the Greens under a new leader will win upwards of twenty seats

[Hatman 🍁]

As expected, PSPP will not run to replace Catherine Fournier in Marie-Victorin because he'd have lost, probably badly. Legault said he'll give Longueuil voters a break and won't call it till the new year. Martine Ouellet will be running there for her new greenish splinter party, PLQ isn't contesting it. CAQ and QS will be contesting.

Will be interesting to see where the PLQ vote goes. Probably mostly to the CAQ. Should be an easy CAQ pick up.

Just like in the PEI by-election, a popular governing party will pick up a seat that an opposing party (in this case, the PQ) has held for 36 years.

[DC Al Fine]

As expected, PSPP will not run to replace Catherine Fournier in Marie-Victorin because he'd have lost, probably badly. Legault said he'll give Longueuil voters a break and won't call it till the new year. Martine Ouellet will be running there for her new greenish splinter party, PLQ isn't contesting it. CAQ and QS will be contesting.

Why aren't the PLQ not contesting? Seems odd for a major party to not even run a paper candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

As expected, PSPP will not run to replace Catherine Fournier in Marie-Victorin because he'd have lost, probably badly. Legault said he'll give Longueuil voters a break and won't call it till the new year. Martine Ouellet will be running there for her new greenish splinter party, PLQ isn't contesting it. CAQ and QS will be contesting.

Why aren't the PLQ not contesting? Seems odd for a major party to not even run a paper candidate.

Originally they didn't want to run against the leader of a different party (per the tradition of not running in by-elections where the leader is trying to gain entry into the assembly. However, if PSPP isn't actually running, I'm not sure why the Liberals wouldn't run someone after all.

[lilTommy]

As expected, PSPP will not run to replace Catherine Fournier in Marie-Victorin because he'd have lost, probably badly. Legault said he'll give Longueuil voters a break and won't call it till the new year. Martine Ouellet will be running there for her new greenish splinter party, PLQ isn't contesting it. CAQ and QS will be contesting.

Why aren't the PLQ not contesting? Seems odd for a major party to not even run a paper candidate.

Originally they didn't want to run against the leader of a different party (per the tradition of not running in by-elections where the leader is trying to gain entry into the assembly. However, if PSPP isn't actually running, I'm not sure why the Liberals wouldn't run someone after all.

It seems odd; the PLQ did come 4th, behind QS, but they still pulled in 15% in 2018. PQ IS going to run a candidate though?
October polling has the PLQ down, the PQ way down, QS about the same and funny enough CAQ is about the same.

[MaxQue]

The PLQ has finally decided to run someone.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ commissioned a poll which has Matane-Matapédia, held by their former parliamentary leader Pascal Bérubé, as their only safe seat but claimed a statistical tie in Marie-Victorin had PSPP been a candidate.

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1461412993137270789

[MaxQue]

Pierre Nantel (MP for Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher / Longueuil--Saint-Hubert for the NDP from 2011 to 2019 when he was expelled for negociating his defection with the Green Party) announced he wants to be the PQ candidate in the by-election.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Pierre Nantel (MP for Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher / Longueuil--Saint-Hubert for the NDP from 2011 to 2019 when he was expelled for negociating his defection with the Green Party) announced he wants to be the PQ candidate in the by-election.

He was obviously always going to go in a PQ/Bloc direction - it was strange that he went Green in the first place.

[Hatman 🍁]

Riding polls are especially meaningless mid-term/pre-campaign.

[beesley]

PQ commissioned a poll which has Matane-Matapédia, held by their former parliamentary leader Pascal Bérubé, as their only safe seat but claimed a statistical tie in Marie-Victorin had PSPP been a candidate.

I may be mistaken, but I think the poll was just of Marie-Victorin - the image is of the seats Qc125 gives the PQ a chance in. The point was despite that poll, M-V was not one of them - pretty bad overall.

[MaxQue]

Pierre Nantel (MP for Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher / Longueuil--Saint-Hubert for the NDP from 2011 to 2019 when he was expelled for negociating his defection with the Green Party) announced he wants to be the PQ candidate in the by-election.

He will be the PQ candidate.

[beesley]

Won't be a 2021 by-election, but just signposting that there is a vacancy in Thompson (Manitoba Legislature) following the sudden death of its MLA Danielle Adams - who gained the seat for the NDP in 2019.

[DC Al Fine]

The Saskatchewan Party have won a by-election in Athabasca, a remote northern riding. The right has never held the seat before.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Saskatchewan Party have won a by-election in Athabasca, a remote northern riding. The right has never held the seat before.

State legislature, I presume?

[DC Al Fine]

The Saskatchewan Party have won a by-election in Athabasca, a remote northern riding. The right has never held the seat before.

State legislature, I presume?

Correct

[DL]

The Saskatchewan Party have won a by-election in Athabasca, a remote northern riding. The right has never held the seat before.

That not quite true - that seat was a Saskatchewan Liberal seat almost continuously from the 1930s to the late 1970s - and in those days the Saskatchewan Liberals were very much "the rightwing party" in Saskatchewan.

[mileslunn]

Athabasca is interesting as in recent years very safe NDP riding.  Some are suggesting Moe dropping all restrictions big reason but not sure about that.  Doing so probably helped with millennials who are most tired of them, but with this riding being largely First Nations, not sure huge call for this.  I think more it came down to local candidate as in Northern Saskatchewan a lot vote more for candidate as opposed to party.  Main reason for NDP dominance is not just First Nations usually vote NDP but also Saskatchewan Party has never really recruited until now a popular candidate amongst First Nations.  The MLA elect in fact I believe was not too long ago an NDP supporter.

Fort McMurray-Lac Le Biche should be interesting.  Most likely stays UCP as not a swing riding but fairly safe one and besides with Brian Jean running to get Kenney's job so you can safely vote for them if you dislike Kenney but cannot vote NDP.  NDP winning would be a huge shock and probably sign they are on track for a much bigger majority than most think.  If UCP loses this, that means probably looking at less than 20 seats.  Still I think if NDP cracks 30%, that is a good sign for them provincially.  WIP unlikely to win but if they get in mid 20s, could be warning that risk of split on right bigger.  Expect Kenney to go really right in next year or next UCP leader to shore this up. 

[beesley]

I'm surprised that Georgina Jolibois wasn't available to win this - she seemed one of the best NDP MPs. But given it looks like the CPC notionally won this seat at the last two elections, perhaps we shouldn't be so surprised.