Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[Continential]

When will Legault likely call the Marie-Victorin by-election?

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised that Georgina Jolibois wasn't available to win this - she seemed one of the best NDP MPs. But given it looks like the CPC notionally won this seat at the last two elections, perhaps we shouldn't be so surprised.

It seems First Nations turnout really bad.  Big reason Tories won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and Kenora and neither was even close.  On paper shouldn't be Tory with large First Nation's population and Tories usually get in single digits amongst First Nations.  But seems for whatever reason many don't show up, while due to re-alignment Tories now dominate white voters in both unlike in past thus why win it as they show up.

[mileslunn]

When will Legault likely call the Marie-Victorin by-election?

That will be interesting.  Would have gone CAQ earlier and probably will.  Although PCQ at 15% and while won't win this seat, they could split vote enough CAQ falls short.  Probably why Legault is accelerating re-opening to push them down.  Only benefit CAQ has is PQ and PLQ are at rock bottom while QS doing okay but they are largely confined to areas with lots of young progressives and this riding is more middle class suburban families.

[Poirot]

When will Legault likely call the Marie-Victorin by-election?

Legault visited Longueuil mayor last week. Candidates have started to go door to door and meet people at the shopping center and put pics on Twitter. Maybe it will be called when people are more satisfied that restrictions have been removed and life goes more to normal. It could also be planned to be during details about the transit project.

CBC website is already talking about the byelection.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/marie-victorin-byelection-fight-1.6357437

PQ made public a poll they paid Léger to do so maybe it overestimates their number since they are the client. It was CAQ and PQ at 33%, QS and PLQ at 11%, Conservateur 8%, Climat Québec 3%.

Climat Québec is Martine Ouellet, former PQ and short time Bloc leader. PQ is running former NDP MP Pierre Natel.  The CAQ candidate is involves in the nurses union. The QS candidate ran for the Bloc in Rosemont in the last election. The parti conservateur candidate is an actress who voted PQ before, and against the sanitary rules and restrictions. Parti vert will also have a candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems First Nations turnout really bad.  Big reason Tories won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and Kenora and neither was even close.  On paper shouldn't be Tory with large First Nation's population and Tories usually get in single digits amongst First Nations.  But seems for whatever reason many don't show up, while due to re-alignment Tories now dominate white voters in both unlike in past thus why win it as they show up.

They sometimes vote and when they do the outcomes are quite different. As for why they have only a semi-detached relationship with the Canadian polity, well, is that really such a great shock considering how it has treated them over the decades? The white vote in D-M-CR has been capable of voting monolithically for the designated party of the Right for ages now, so I don't think we need to bring questionable notions of 'realignment' (in Canada? What value does such a concept have in a place where people change their vote more frequently than they change their bedsheets?) into this.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It seems First Nations turnout really bad.  Big reason Tories won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and Kenora and neither was even close.  On paper shouldn't be Tory with large First Nation's population and Tories usually get in single digits amongst First Nations.  But seems for whatever reason many don't show up, while due to re-alignment Tories now dominate white voters in both unlike in past thus why win it as they show up.

They sometimes vote and when they do the outcomes are quite different. As for why they have only a semi-detached relationship with the Canadian polity, well, is that really such a great shock considering how it has treated them over the decades? The white vote in D-M-CR has been capable of voting monolithically for the designated party of the Right for ages now, so I don't think we need to bring questionable notions of 'realignment' (in Canada? What value does such a concept have in a place where people change their vote more frequently than they change their bedsheets?) into this.

That might be true for the federal ridings but what I've heard the white population in Athbaska is negligible, the Saskatchewan party victory was more powered by Metis Voters that they apparently managed to win 95/5 over the usual 60/40 margins. We shouldn't treet first nation voters as some sort of monolith either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That might be true for the federal ridings but what I've heard the white population in Athbaska is negligible, the Saskatchewan party victory was more powered by Metis Voters that they apparently managed to win 95/5 over the usual 60/40 margins. We shouldn't street first nation voters as some sort of monolith either.

Yes - if there's something new here it's a very different sort of new. There was a large increase in the Saskatchewan Party vote at Athabasca at the last election, of course. Interesting that this result has happened at one of those points when the Saskatchewan Party's poll lead is less obese than what has become usual, but places like this will do their own thing for many reasons.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think people should note that while Federarly the first nation voters who do vote give minimal support to the conservative party, that bias does not extend down to provincial politics. Athabasca isn't the only monolithically first nation riding the conservative party was able to win. The Torgatta Mountains* another almost entirely indigenous riding elected a PC representative with 89% of the vote last year due to backlash against several project cancellations by the incumbent Liberal government. I think the fact that African Americans are so universally hostile to the republican party distorts analysis of other minority group voting patterns.

*(though the fact she has left the party and now sits as an independent, and the fact that she got exactly 420 votes is telling)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lela_Evans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torngat_Mountains_(electoral_district)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/SebBovetSRC/status/1501222325890564100

[Hatman 🍁]

I think people should note that while Federarly the first nation voters who do vote give minimal support to the conservative party, that bias does not extend down to provincial politics. Athabasca isn't the only monolithically first nation riding the conservative party was able to win. The Torgatta Mountains* another almost entirely indigenous riding elected a PC representative with 89% of the vote last year due to backlash against several project cancellations by the incumbent Liberal government. I think the fact that African Americans are so universally hostile to the republican party distorts analysis of other minority group voting patterns.

*(though the fact she has left the party and now sits as an independent, and the fact that she got exactly 420 votes is telling)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lela_Evans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torngat_Mountains_(electoral_district)

Kind of funny that you brought her up as an example, as she just crossed the floor to the NDP yesterday.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think people should note that while Federarly the first nation voters who do vote give minimal support to the conservative party, that bias does not extend down to provincial politics. Athabasca isn't the only monolithically first nation riding the conservative party was able to win. The Torgatta Mountains* another almost entirely indigenous riding elected a PC representative with 89% of the vote last year due to backlash against several project cancellations by the incumbent Liberal government. I think the fact that African Americans are so universally hostile to the republican party distorts analysis of other minority group voting patterns.

*(though the fact she has left the party and now sits as an independent, and the fact that she got exactly 420 votes is telling)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lela_Evans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torngat_Mountains_(electoral_district)

Kind of funny that you brought her up as an example, as she just crossed the floor to the NDP yesterday.

Haha, I saw the news-story as well. I do think it's still illustrative of how weird politics get's in these sort of isolated indigenous ridings and how loose party affiliation is.

[Continential]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

[MaxQue]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

Hopefully, Climat Québec beats Alex "Putin is right to be afraid of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis" Tyrrell.

[DL]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

and today a new poll by Leger on provincial vote intention in Quebec has the once great PQ down to just 10% of the vote and in FIFTH place...if they lose Marie-Victorin it may be a sign of that party's imminent death.

[MaxQue]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

and today a new poll by Leger on provincial vote intention in Quebec has the once great PQ down to just 10% of the vote and in FIFTH place...if they lose Marie-Victorin it may be a sign of that party's imminent death.

There was a poll of Marie-Victorin (commissioned by PQ) last month saying the by-election was a tie between them and the CAQ. I wouldn't go as far than you, but I would say the PQ needs a win there to be relevant in the next election.

[MaxQue]

Also, the New Brunswick by-elections for Miramichi Bay - Neguac and Southwest Miramichi - Bay du Vin have been called for June 20th.

[RogueBeaver]

I sorta agree with Josée Legault that M-V won't be that important for the PQ. Either they're comatose like Joe Clark's PCs or die completely like the UN, and I don't think another leader would do much better than PSPP.

[DL]

Also, the New Brunswick by-elections for Miramichi Bay - Neguac and Southwest Miramichi - Bay du Vin have been called for June 20th.

Seems weird to call byelections over three months in advance!

[DL]

I sorta agree with Josée Legault that M-V won't be that important for the PQ. Either they're comatose like Joe Clark's PCs or die completely like the UN, and I don't think another leader would do much better than PSPP.

Its interesting to look at formerly powerful parties in Canada that have died. The classic example is the Union Nationale which went from being the government of Quebec in 1970 to losing all seats in 1973 and after a dead cat bounce in 1976 - basically ceased to exist.

Other major parties that have died would include:

Alberta Social Credit (Government 1936 to 1971, sputtered with a handful of seats in the 70s and then vanished)
BC Social Credit (Government 1952-72 and again 1975-1991 - then got annhilated and subsumed into the current BC Liberal Party)
The provincial Liberal parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were all going concerns as recently as the 1990s and 00s - and are all now basically dead.

[MaxQue]

Also, the New Brunswick by-elections for Miramichi Bay - Neguac and Southwest Miramichi - Bay du Vin have been called for June 20th.

Seems weird to call byelections over three months in advance!

4, it actually got called last month (and those seats are empty since August 2021, both resignations to run for MP).

[Hatman 🍁]

I sorta agree with Josée Legault that M-V won't be that important for the PQ. Either they're comatose like Joe Clark's PCs or die completely like the UN, and I don't think another leader would do much better than PSPP.

Its interesting to look at formerly powerful parties in Canada that have died. The classic example is the Union Nationale which went from being the government of Quebec in 1970 to losing all seats in 1973 and after a dead cat bounce in 1976 - basically ceased to exist.

Other major parties that have died would include:

Alberta Social Credit (Government 1936 to 1971, sputtered with a handful of seats in the 70s and then vanished)
BC Social Credit (Government 1952-72 and again 1975-1991 - then got annhilated and subsumed into the current BC Liberal Party)
The provincial Liberal parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were all going concerns as recently as the 1990s and 00s - and are all now basically dead.

The Manitoba Liberals aren't quite dead, they still have seats at least.

[mileslunn]

Fort McMurray-Lac Le Biche this week and should be interesting.  While UCP heavy favourites to hold it despite bad poll numbers, if they lose it probably means Danielle Smith becomes next premier until at least next year when I think Notley favoured to beat her.  Brian Jean losing this out as leadership contender and Kenney almost certainly loses leadership review if loses this safe seat.

Still be interesting to see how well NDP does.  Only way they win is if a near perfect split on right.  Its not like urban ridings they can win on own right as in this riding far more lean right than left.  WIPA unlikely to win but if they get over 20% could be a sign as a real threat to UCP and expect UCP to move even further right to shore up this vote.  If get in single digits but UCP struggles, could be sign province doesn't want to move right and wants to move closer to centre.  But I doubt UCP with number of ideologues it has will do this.  It seems a lot in base unwilling to moderate no matter how overwhelming evidence is. 

While no polls yet to see if surplus in budget and re-opening is helping UCP, but I doubt UCP has regained lead.  Boris Johnson is still trailing in UK and while different country, his strong stance on Russia you would think would help and it has tightened things but not enough to pull ahead.  And even worst polls for him are not as bad as most for Kenney are.

[DL]

I suspect the UCP will easily win the byelection in Fort-MacMurray because if there is one place in Alberta where the NDP can never wins its Fort Mac and secondly the UCP candidate is Brian jean who is openly running as an anti-Kenney candidate pledging to dump him as leader and to run for the leadership himself - so if you live in that riding by voting UCP in the byelection you get the best of both worlds - you get to register dissent against Kenney AND you can also reject the NDP.

[mileslunn]

I suspect the UCP will easily win the byelection in Fort-MacMurray because if there is one place in Alberta where the NDP can never wins its Fort Mac and secondly the UCP candidate is Brian jean who is openly running as an anti-Kenney candidate pledging to dump him as leader and to run for the leadership himself - so if you live in that riding by voting UCP in the byelection you get the best of both worlds - you get to register dissent against Kenney AND you can also reject the NDP.

Fort McMurray is very conservative and NDP dead there.  NDP support only somewhat decent in 2015 in riding although still lost as large First Nations' population.  Although my understanding is a lot of First Nations work in energy sector so probably don't vote NDP in same numbers they do in other parts of country.

[adma]

I suspect the UCP will easily win the byelection in Fort-MacMurray because if there is one place in Alberta where the NDP can never wins its Fort Mac and secondly the UCP candidate is Brian jean who is openly running as an anti-Kenney candidate pledging to dump him as leader and to run for the leadership himself - so if you live in that riding by voting UCP in the byelection you get the best of both worlds - you get to register dissent against Kenney AND you can also reject the NDP.

Fort McMurray is very conservative and NDP dead there.  NDP support only somewhat decent in 2015 in riding although still lost as large First Nations' population.  Although my understanding is a lot of First Nations work in energy sector so probably don't vote NDP in same numbers they do in other parts of country.

Of course, that is if there is one *large urban place* in Alberta where the NDP can never win.  And even that's something I'd qualify--that is, they *could* have won in Fort Mac in '15 were it not for Brian Jean...