IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[jamestroll]

I rate it likely Dem. We will not be doing lockdowns in 2022. My early guess is Pritzker by 10.

Will be interesting to see how he does in DuPage County..

[jamestroll]

I basically rate IL Gov the same as VA Gov. Both probable Democratic holds but circumstances could cause a GOP upset.

[jamestroll]

Pritzker has a lot of problems, and isn't well liked, but unless a time machine brings 1994 Jim Edgar back, I dont see anyone they have that can actually win right now. Now a republican will win governor of Illinois in the next 12 years, but thats because Illinois is an epic disaster and there will be blowback against someone.

Illinois really needs term limits for their legislature, it would normalize the state so much.

Future Illinois trends most likely favor republicans. Illinois will probably flip before 2040

Not really. People like to make a big deal out of the city emptying out (though it grew 2% from 2010 to 2020), but the suburbs are growing and diversifying while downstate is rapidly declining.

Ah, makes sense.

Illinois will be pretty stable. Trends in either direction keep canceling each other out.

[jamestroll]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.

Any thought why Will County was so close in all the statewide races this year? Though I haven't checked for updates in a few days.  I obviously only checked Dupage and Lake for updates.