IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[Suburbia]

The ungovernable state of Illinois will have a gubernatorial election in 2022, in a Biden midterm.

People are moving out of IL for the 8th straight year. People are moving out of IL to move to IN, AZ, FL and other places deemed "low-tax".

Rightists are saying "Don't come to our state with your policies". What do you think?

But I rate IL-GOV 2022 as Lean D.

IL GOP are looking at a post-Rauner, post-Kirk future with Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts mulling a run for governor.

http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/December-2020/Todd-Ricketts-Illinois-Republicans-2022/

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Probably still Likely Dem. The Illinois GOP is deeply unpopular.

People are moving out of IL to move to IN, AZ, FL and other places deemed "low-tax".

Rightists are saying "Don't come to our state with your policies". What do you think?

My understanding is that the people who leave Illinois are generally more conservative leaning? They tend to be older, homeowners, and fleeing suburban property taxes. They're not really Democratic voters.

Also Indiana's population growth has been very anemic. For all the talk of people and businesses leaving Illinois and moving to Indiana, most of them actually just move to the Sunbelt, is my impression. The tax advantages of living in Lake County, Indiana and commuting to Chicago were pretty much eliminated over the 2013 - 2018 period when the county introduced a county income tax, many municipalities voted in referendums to raise property taxes to fund schools, and the state raised all kinds of fees and excise taxes despite passing a small income tax cut. And the weather is still just as bad.

[Roll Roons]

Pritzker isn't safe, because an Illinois governor will always make a lot of enemies, but I think Republicans will make their strongest play for a row office. Probably Secretary of State, which is likely to be an open seat. I don't know who they might nominate, because I think it plays out like the 2018 AG race, where Democrats have a crowded primary and Republicans find someone who they largely clear the field for.

[Suburbia]

Pritzker isn't safe, because an Illinois governor will always make a lot of enemies, but I think Republicans will make their strongest play for a row office. Probably Secretary of State, which is likely to be an open seat. I don't know who they might nominate, because I think it plays out like the 2018 AG race, where Democrats have a crowded primary and Republicans find someone who they largely clear the field for.

Kirk Dillard could beat Pritzker in 2022.

Pritzker is a rich progressive, but he is unhealthy. He should lose weight. He has no political future outside of IL, maybe future DNC chair.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do Conservative think just because it's a Biden Midterm, D's are in a losing battle in 2014/2018 only 1 Dem lost in a blue state which was Mark Udall.  

Every competetive state in 2021/2022 including GA Runoffs and VA and NJ Govs and 2022 Midterms aside from NC are in states Biden won and Biden and Harris will campaign for D's.

Instead of winning by 20/ Pritzker is gonna win by 5 pts, that's the average D Govs win by anyways.

Pritzker is just as overweight as Trump

Ricketts is running for Gov due to fact his Cubbies are on the downtrend, the Roof top business is over until Covid is over. He's going bankrupt as of right now, Wrigleyville is dead, I lived in Chicago, Galena and Suburbs are becoming more popular than Chicago, you can buy a House for same price you pay rent a mnth

[President Johnson]

Do Republicans have a bench here? Maybe a few US Representatives, if you they seriously want to challenge Pritzker? Pritzker should be fine, he has turned out a better governor than expected.

[jamestroll]

I rate it likely Dem. We will not be doing lockdowns in 2022. My early guess is Pritzker by 10.

Will be interesting to see how he does in DuPage County..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it's still D, Ricketts and Wrigleyville are on the downtrend since Rooftops and Cubbies aren't in business that much anymore due to Covid

[anthonyjg]

Safe Pritzker

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker

Lean Pritzker.

Ricketts, Dold, Dillard or Matt Murphy could complement the ILGOP bench.

[anthonyjg]

Safe Pritzker

Lean Pritzker.

Ricketts, Dold, Dillard or Matt Murphy could complement the ILGOP bench.

None of them would stand a chance in a primary and would still struggle immensely in the general

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker

Lean Pritzker.

Ricketts, Dold, Dillard or Matt Murphy could complement the ILGOP bench.

None of them would stand a chance in a primary and would still struggle immensely in the general

Murphy or Jason Plummer can win the primary.

Jeanne Ives can upset Pritzker if more population loss happens. She can win DuPage and Lake.

Pritzker needs to try to get Madigan lost and make sure Giannoulias is on the ticket so young voters can vote D en masse.

[Suburbia]

Pritzker isn't safe, because an Illinois governor will always make a lot of enemies, but I think Republicans will make their strongest play for a row office. Probably Secretary of State, which is likely to be an open seat. I don't know who they might nominate, because I think it plays out like the 2018 AG race, where Democrats have a crowded primary and Republicans find someone who they largely clear the field for.

Giannoulias would beat that ILGOPer by 10 points, he's learned his lesson after his 12-year hiatus.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's be clear that Trump is gonna exert his influence in a lot of Congress and Statewide races in 2022/ NC Sen, IL Gov, he is friends with Palin, but try his isn't 2010, it's 2020 and the EC map has finally favored D's even in Midterms, especially in a Pandemic

Lara Trump will fail too as NC Senate nominee

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Let's be clear that Trump is gonna exert his influence in a lot of Congress and Statewide races in 2022/ NC Sen, IL Gov, he is friends with Palin, but try his isn't 2010, it's 2020 and the EC map has finally favored D's even in Midterms, especially in a Pandemic

Lara Trump will fail too as NC Senate nominee

Lara Trump is the prototypical NC sorority ghoul.

[Orwell]

Why does Prtizker lose? I doubt he will, but a lot can change in 2 years.

[Suburbia]

Why does Prtizker lose? I doubt he will, but a lot can change in 2 years.

Lockdown fatigue, Madigan, ILDEM issues, and taxes and the exodus.

People are fleeing Illinois for the eighth year in a row.

Something has to change for Illinois' economy and Democrats should focus on Downstate as they do Chicago. Have town halls in Champaign, in Springfield, in St. Clair, etc.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-illinois-population-census-exodus-20201222-ukwt63e6gvh3xnnvgzoidmx6su-story.html

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Pritzker wins but posts a worse showing downstate than Quinn did.

[Suburbia]

Pritzker wins but posts a worse showing downstate than Quinn did.

If Jim Edgar wants to fix IL politics like it was in the 1990s, he could run and he could win.

[PAK Man]

Likely D. I'm betting Kinzinger runs and he'll argue that Pritzker's COVID-19 restrictions are bad for business/killing the state, etc., but I doubt it'll work. Maybe it's because I'm surrounded by Democrats (I do live in the 9th District) but Pritzker seems to be decently popular. Plus the only reason Quinn lost was because nearly the entire state hated him, and had buyers' remorse almost immediately (Rauner entered office on day one unpopular, and never recovered - had Quinn not run for reelection, I think Democrats would have held the seat).

If Kim Foxx can win reelection, then Pritzker will most certainly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pritzker wins but posts a worse showing downstate than Quinn did.

If Jim Edgar wants to fix IL politics like it was in the 1990s, he could run and he could win.

Edgar had heart issues and couldn't get thru the stress that's why he retired

[dw93]

Unless someone like Kinzinger runs and can match Pritzker's funding advantage and 2022 ends up being worse for the Democrats than 2010 (which I don't see happening at this point), Pritzker holds on, but I do think he'll do worse in 2022 than he did in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ricketts would be a viable candidate if his Cubbies were any good, but without Wrigleyville being open for fans, the Covid Environment will be a drag on him, Cubs are nowhere near the promise they were in 2016/ Pritzker wins by 5/10 pointsjust like DUCKWORTH

[beaver2.0]

I think the Willie Wilson Party will rocket back and under urban populist Willie Wilson, who campaigns on a religious anti-lockdown platform, the WWP will win.

[JGibson]

Far-right COVID skeptic Darren Bailey has been floated for a run for Governor.