IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[dw93]

Bailey is on par with Masters, Cox, Mastriano and Oz and Dixon that's gonna lose biggly by 10 pts 55/45

I really hope you are right.

As an Illinois resident I hope so too.

[PSOL]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

[Green Line]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

I sense a lack of enthusiasm for downballot Democrats thanks to anger over crime and the SAFE T act.  Pritzker isn’t talking about anything but abortion.  Bailey is too toxic to win, but what are your thoughts on the IL supreme court races and SoS.

[PSOL]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

I sense a lack of enthusiasm for downballot Democrats thanks to anger over crime and the SAFE T act.  Pritzker isn’t talking about anything but abortion.  Bailey is too toxic to win, but what are your thoughts on the IL supreme court races and SoS.

The Supreme Court races will go in a disappointing direction for Democrats. SoS is safe Dem though.

Admittedly crime is a factor and it isn’t helping in the suburbs, but a lot of it seems to rest on hatred and dissatisfaction from Democrats nationally. Not helping that Pritzker himself is campaigning like Hillary Clinton, so who knows what sort of losses will be done in depressing turnout and even flipping many Hispanic and Black voters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

I sense a lack of enthusiasm for downballot Democrats thanks to anger over crime and the SAFE T act.  Pritzker isn’t talking about anything but abortion.  Bailey is too toxic to win, but what are your thoughts on the IL supreme court races and SoS.

The Supreme Court races will go in a disappointing direction for Democrats. SoS is safe Dem though.

Admittedly crime is a factor and it isn’t helping in the suburbs, but a lot of it seems to rest on hatred and dissatisfaction from Democrats nationally. Not helping that Pritzker himself is campaigning like Hillary Clinton, so who knows what sort of losses will be done in depressing turnout and even flipping many Hispanic and Black voters.

Do you think Rs flip the Illinois Supreme Court? I kinda assumed post Roe Dems should be favored in that Biden + 14 suburban seat but idk.

[PSOL]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

I sense a lack of enthusiasm for downballot Democrats thanks to anger over crime and the SAFE T act.  Pritzker isn’t talking about anything but abortion.  Bailey is too toxic to win, but what are your thoughts on the IL supreme court races and SoS.

The Supreme Court races will go in a disappointing direction for Democrats. SoS is safe Dem though.

Admittedly crime is a factor and it isn’t helping in the suburbs, but a lot of it seems to rest on hatred and dissatisfaction from Democrats nationally. Not helping that Pritzker himself is campaigning like Hillary Clinton, so who knows what sort of losses will be done in depressing turnout and even flipping many Hispanic and Black voters.

Do you think Rs flip the Illinois Supreme Court? I kinda assumed post Roe Dems should be favored in that Biden + 14 suburban seat but idk.

Since Roe, no—but they will make gains.

[scared of myself]

I could see Pritzker as a VP pick for Harris in 2028.

[Gracile]

Pritzker going hard for the crucial Swiftie vote:

https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/status/1583524286673092609

[Gass3268]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

I sense a lack of enthusiasm for downballot Democrats thanks to anger over crime and the SAFE T act.  Pritzker isn’t talking about anything but abortion.  Bailey is too toxic to win, but what are your thoughts on the IL supreme court races and SoS.

The Supreme Court races will go in a disappointing direction for Democrats. SoS is safe Dem though.

Admittedly crime is a factor and it isn’t helping in the suburbs, but a lot of it seems to rest on hatred and dissatisfaction from Democrats nationally. Not helping that Pritzker himself is campaigning like Hillary Clinton, so who knows what sort of losses will be done in depressing turnout and even flipping many Hispanic and Black voters.

Do you think Rs flip the Illinois Supreme Court? I kinda assumed post Roe Dems should be favored in that Biden + 14 suburban seat but idk.

Since Roe, no—but they will make gains.

Democrats gain the 2nd, but lose the 3rd?

[Orwell]

Pritzker going hard for the crucial Swiftie vote:

https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/status/1583524286673092609

This is why January 6 was Justified

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1585758128272019456?s=20&t=x9WJyfATf3B...

In case you were wondering where Bailey's head is currently.

[Illiniwek]

LOL night night Bailey!

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

As to be expected, Khagan Pritzker is, once again, triumphant over his foes! I am eagerly awaiting mobilization orders...

[Schiff for Senate]

As to be expected, Khagan Pritzker is, once again, triumphant over his foes! I am eagerly awaiting mobilization orders...

If we're cheering about winning a statewide race in IL, then frankly, we're really not in a good place. You don't need to be a titan to win as a Democrat in IL - you just need to NOT be a total joke candidate.

[Gass3268]

Republicans netted one seat in the State Senate, but Democrats netted five seats in the State House.

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1590805978475134977?s=20&t=R6l9JOv...

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1591134720053907456?s=20&t=R6l9JOv...

Democrats maintain their supermajorities in both chambers.

[Oryxslayer]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

I sense a lack of enthusiasm for downballot Democrats thanks to anger over crime and the SAFE T act.  Pritzker isn’t talking about anything but abortion.  Bailey is too toxic to win, but what are your thoughts on the IL supreme court races and SoS.

The Supreme Court races will go in a disappointing direction for Democrats. SoS is safe Dem though.

Admittedly crime is a factor and it isn’t helping in the suburbs, but a lot of it seems to rest on hatred and dissatisfaction from Democrats nationally. Not helping that Pritzker himself is campaigning like Hillary Clinton, so who knows what sort of losses will be done in depressing turnout and even flipping many Hispanic and Black voters.

Do you think Rs flip the Illinois Supreme Court? I kinda assumed post Roe Dems should be favored in that Biden + 14 suburban seat but idk.

Since Roe, no—but they will make gains.

Democrats gain the 2nd, but lose the 3rd?

Dems ended up expanding their majority on the supreme court. Held the 3rd and flipped the 2nd.

Also....

As to be expected, Khagan Pritzker is, once again, triumphant over his foes! I am eagerly awaiting mobilization orders...

Pritzker's behind-the-scenes team is a bunch of memesters.

[ill ind]

A couple of comments on the maps of party changes in the Illinois legislature.

1.  The Senate map is correct.
2. The House map has a few errors.

 On the new map districts 42 and 48 swapped positions from the old map.  There was not a swap in partisan representation.  Old 42, now 48 had a GOP rep before, and has a GOP rep now.  Old 48 now 42 likewise had a Dem rep before and has a Dem Rep now.

On the new map districts 83 and 50 are also swapped from the old map.  So, it was 83 and not 50 that changed from a GOP rep to a Dem rep.

The result is that the Dems gained 6 and the GOP gained 1 - making the net result the same as the post.

I am guessing these maps were made by comparing lists of election results and not comparing the old/new maps themselves.

I'll Ind

[Gracile]

Somewhat off-topic, but the Worker's Rights Amendment to the Illinois Constitution will probably pass. It is below the 60% threshold for Yes votes on the question, but I'm fairly certain it has a majority of Yes votes as a percentage of all ballots cast (the estimates I've seen are in the 51-52% range). As I expected, though, it's producing some notable divergences from statewide Democratic candidates - specifically underperforming Pritzker in much of the upscale parts of the collar counties despite the amendment running ahead of Pritzker's vote share statewide. For example, one precinct in DuPage is Biden + 22, Pritzker +14 this year, yet the amendment is currently failing by over 20 points.

[Gracile]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

[new_patomic]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment. Same in DuPage by 30K.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in the richest two collar counties.

[Gracile]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.

[jamestroll]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.

Any thought why Will County was so close in all the statewide races this year? Though I haven't checked for updates in a few days.  I obviously only checked Dupage and Lake for updates.

[kwabbit]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.

Any thought why Will County was so close in all the statewide races this year? Though I haven't checked for updates in a few days.  I obviously only checked Dupage and Lake for updates.

Will County is less educated than the other collar counties. While they have trended sharply left in the Trump era, Will has only trended slightly left.

[new_patomic]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.

Any thought why Will County was so close in all the statewide races this year? Though I haven't checked for updates in a few days.  I obviously only checked Dupage and Lake for updates.

Will County is less educated than the other collar counties. While they have trended sharply left in the Trump era, Will has only trended slightly left.

It's also the case I think that quite a few South/Southwest suburbs swung towards Republicans in 2020, though I believe it was mostly concentrated in suburban Cook.

Regardless in state elections Lake, Kane, and DuPage all voted to the right of Will in 2014. Lake zoomed left of it in 2018, and it seems Kane and DuPage have finally done so now. Dems gaining with wealthier more educated suburbanites checks out.

[H. Ross Peron]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.

Good map illustrating the measure's overperformance in downstate Illinois vs its underperformance in Chicagoland. There were some questionable takes on Twitter about how the vote demonstrated educational polarization even on socioeconomic issues but the actual numbers suggest otherwise.

https://twitter.com/PviGuy/status/1592378510219563008