IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[new_patomic]

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1592181607330623489

Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.

Good map illustrating the measure's overperformance in downstate Illinois vs its underperformance in Chicagoland. There were some questionable takes on Twitter about how the vote demonstrated educational polarization even on socioeconomic issues but the actual numbers suggest otherwise.

https://twitter.com/PviGuy/status/1592378510219563008

The overperformance of counties in immediate proximity to Indiana is notable.

[Gracile]

The final certified results are in, and Pritzker won by a resounding 12.5% margin - which aligns with the state's lean adjusted for the national environment. It is the largest margin a Democratic governor had won reelection in IL in over a century (since Augustus French in 1848 - before our current two-party system began).

[Suburbia]

The ILGOP will regroup, and 2026 they could take the AG spot.....or the Comptroller spot

[Green Line]

Republican House leader Jim Durkin resigned in January.  On his way out he attacked Trump, called for gun control and said some other interesting things.  I’m pretty sure he is considering running against Kim Foxx in 2024, maybe as an independent even.  Durkin is a former Cook County Assistant State’s Attorney.

He has terrible political instincts though so I wouldn’t put money on him.