Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Walmart_shopper]

I will just drop my prediction here. I am actually quite pessimistic about how this will go, and am generally assuming that Bibi and the Kahanists will get their majority. But when I go seat by seat it just looks like it's hard to see where Netanyahu actually finds 61 seats. He is close but he would either need a solid number of liberals to back him despite not doing so in years, or he would need a serious turnout drop among the Arab population or in the liberal Center. Turnout is already pretty low in the Center so it can't go much lower, and Arab turnout projections are all quite strong. But still I feel like Israeli democracy is cooked and that this will he our Erdogen/Orban moment. I guess we'll see.

Likud 33
YA 20
Liberman 9
Joint List 10
Saar 8
Shas 9
Yamina 7
Yahadut Hatorah 7
Labor 5
Raam 4
Meretz 4
Kahanists & co. 4

Netanyahu's right bloc (inc. Bennet) 59
Raam 4
Everyone else: 57

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

I am still not sure who I am supporting. Pretty much split between Labor and the JL. I love Ibtisah at #7 on the Labor list and want to aee her in the Knesset.

[Walmart_shopper]

Welcome back, Walmart_shopper!

Former PM Olmert endorses...Labour

I'm sure they're just soo thrilled to have the endorsement of an ex-PM who went to prison for corruption.

Thanks. I wish I was as optimistic about our political future as I once was, bur man it is grim these days. Feels like the exact inverse of America right now.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

I am still not sure who I am supporting. Pretty much split between Labor and the JL. I love Ibtisah at #7 on the Labor list and want to aee her in the Knesset.

Same, I hope they overperform enough to get her in. Doubt it, though

She is disqualified, I thought?

The right wing hacks on the election panel disqualified her, as they like to do to Arabs especially, it seems. But the Supreme Ciurt annulled it, also as usual, and allowed her to run. This happens every election.

Literally the only thing standing between us and outright Jim Crow, which is fairly popular among the public, is the Court, and I can't imagine an independent judiciary will survive if Bibi gets his majority. Israeli democracy is literally hanging by the thin thread of a Supreme Court and its broad use of a Basic Law that isn't even a constitution.  That is why the right campaigns on gutting the Court and why right wing voters are so respoinsive to that kind of campaigning. They neutralize the Court and there is literally nothing to keep them from doing whatever they want. The public won't stop them. The opposition in Israel is scared of its own shadow. The military isn't going to launch a coup. The international community is powerless to do anything.  So the Court is what's left and everyone here knows it, and as in the US the issue of the Supreme Court simply is far more salient on the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

So what will happen if both Ra'am and Meretz make it and the Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+Religious Zionist does not cross 60 ? Who in the opposition will Netanyahu try to rope in this time "for the good of the country" ?

Most likely a fifth election, but Raam could be persuaded to join a Netanyahu government. There is a lot of talk abour defections from Saar's party, although I am somewhat skeptical of that actually happening.

Pretty amazing that literal supporters of ethnic cleansing are willing to work with an Islamist party to get Bibi his majority but center-right people like Saar's party are apparently unwilling to let a fairly mainstream progressive party like the Joint List prop up a centrist government. It really does show how Israeli politics are largely defined by political will these days, and the right pretty much owns that area.

[Walmart_shopper]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

[Walmart_shopper]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

Explain please.

Also there was a bunch of anti-Bibi protests last night, but as we all know crowd size =/= results.

After spending weeks insisting that he would sign no document of Bibi's pledging any kind of loyalty Bennet went on tv last night with a document that...pledged that he would not sit under Lapid. It was the most sad, pavlovian thing ever.

[Walmart_shopper]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

I'm baffled, I assume his internal polling shows that Bibi is short squeezing him atm

As is electoral tradition, he is diving. And he's flailing. It's just that this time he's losing votes not just to Bibi but now he's also losing the few yuppie liberals in Ramat Aviv that had been supporting him hecause of his strong ideas on the pandemic.

[Walmart_shopper]

Slight rise in turnout as of 10 AM compared to last time. U believe this is good for Netanyahu?

Who knows. The right bloc pretty much maxxed out its turnout last year, so any increase in turnout is more likely than not to be among lower propensity voters in Tel Aviv and Arab areas. But without local numbers and further turnout reports it's hard to know what is happening.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some scattered reports on a very weak Arab turnout so far. Jack Khoury says that Arara and Kfar Qara are at only about 6% as of 10am. On the other hand he reports that Nazareth and one area in Haifa are at 14 to 15 percent. The Arab vote almost always comes in late, so to see major Arab population centers so high so early is incredible and certainly contradicts the idea that Arab turnout is low.

[Walmart_shopper]

Besides Arabs, who are the high and low turnout groups in Israeli politics? People mentioned Tel Aviv having low turnout which kind of surprised me since doesn't the city have more educated and affluent voters? Or does it simply mean younger voters in the city?

Haredim, kibbutznikim, settlers, and wealthy liberals in the Tel Aviv area--Center--have the highest turnout. Blue collars voters in the poorer "periphery," Arabs, and young voters in Tel Aviv have lower turnout.

[Walmart_shopper]

Lowest turnout as of 2pm since 2009, where the voting percentage reached 65%.

[Walmart_shopper]

So the Arab turnout drop is real, and final numbers for that sector could end up closer to 50 percent than the 60+ percent they have been getting. On the other hand the total national turnout may end up under 65%, a big drop from previous elections. So the voter apathy is showing up throughout the country.

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 4pm turnout was nearly five points lower than in the last elections--at 42.3%. This is one of the lowest numbers ever, only slightly ahead of the snoozefests of 2006 and 2009.

[Walmart_shopper]

These are mostly just rumors, but the situation seems to be this:

- Likud is asking activists to vote for Smotrich and Ben Gvir because they are worried that they won't make it over the threshold.

- There is some confusion about Arab turnout. Some data points to an absolute turnout disaster. Some points to something similar to September 2019 numbers, which were not terrible but not enough to change the government.

- Turnout in Likud strongholds may--may --be quite low. Center left parties are feeling very good about themselves, but it isn't clear how Saar or the rest of the bloc is doing.

- We are headed for a turnout between 60 and 65 percent, barring a major turnout surge (which can happen especially in the Arab sector, which dows this). No clue what that means for everyone, but I feel like it is going to really scramble pre-election polling pretty badly.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu has likely won by a reasonable strong margin.

Buh bye sweet city of gold. I'm out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Camille Fox, one of the exit poll people, said there's a "dramatic decision". Probably means Bibi won

Netanyahu has likely won by a reasonable strong margin.

Buh bye sweet city of gold. I'm out.

When you say "Netanyahu won," do you mean that he has a clear path to government formation, or just that Likud got more votes than any other party?

The Bibi bloc has a clear majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rumours Bibi bloc with Yamina is 61.

Also it seems Labour might be on the edge.

Also it seems that only Likud and YA in double figures

That doesn't seem a very clear majority for Bibi. Rumours seem to be contradictory.

Yeah if Kamil Fuchs is calling 61 seats a "decisive result" then the polling industry is an even bigger hack job than we thought. Bibi had 61 seata a year ago in exits and he lost his majority as actual results came in. So I surely hipe that they aren't on TV telling people that Netanyahu has a decisive win in hand when he in fact is swinging in the margins.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is the idea that claiming a decisive victory for Likud would depress late turnout among anti-Netanyahu voters?

Nah, the idea is that they are hinting at a win for Likud because they dod in fact win.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is anyone seeing where the remaining 20% should come from? Enough to flip 3 seats from the Bibi bloc?

I really can't tell from the ynet map what'a still out. But if there is still plenty of Negev vote out then Raam will likely slide in.

[Walmart_shopper]

The latest update included the Bedouin villages. Ra'am past threshold at 4%. Probably won't be getting too many more votes, so this total needs to survive the remaining 550-600K.

The prison vote usually gives the Arab parties an extra mandate, so there us that.

[Walmart_shopper]

The latest update included the Bedouin villages. Ra'am past threshold at 4%. Probably won't be getting too many more votes, so this total needs to survive the remaining 550-600K.

The prison vote usually gives the Arab parties an extra mandate, so there us that.

Yeah that is Ra'am's last big pool, but its just more doubles. Remaining E-Day vote appears to be scattered across all the populous areas, slightly weighted towards the Tel-Aviv region. Then there's the usual Double Envelopes and the generous pool of Covid related additional ballots which we won't know about for a day or two. Given the unequal vaccination distribution there may be a good number of Arabs in the Covid pool, but that's just guessing.

The majority of quarantine votes will be Arab and possibly some Haredim,  but there will be very few of them.

[Walmart_shopper]

How many seats away from a majority is Netanyahu right now? It's good that he hasn't won, but five elections would be even more ridiculous than four. What flaw in the political system is producing this gridlock, is it just sectarian and polarised politics or something to do with the electoral system too?

He has no majority. Smotrich has ruled out sitting with the Arabs. Either the center left pulls a nimble move and forms a government or we are indeed headed for a late summer election. As Hnv said the presidential election could get pretty wild, especially if some people try to propise offering the position to Bibi (he would get immunity, Israel would be free of his regime). Doubt that will happen but you never know.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would that even be enough to change what's going on? Bibi could always offer some obvious stand-in for himself as a candidate for Prime Minister. (Or just keep running and promise to change the law to re-qualify himself if he wins, since arguably the point of the whole 2019-present political crisis is the immunity law, which Bibi wouldn't want if he weren't Prime Minister.)

The formation of New Hope seemed to offer a, well, new hope to end the crisis by convincing pro-Bibi voters over to the anti-Bibi side, but its total flameout suggests that was never going to happen. If persuasion over the course of repeated elections doesn't work, then the crisis keeps going until Likud chooses, voluntarily, to get rid of Bibi and come up with a different candidate who can convince the Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope people to rejoin their coalition. That's probably not possible unless/until Bibi actually goes to jail.

(Kind of looking forward to Gantz taking over in November at this point.)

So, if there isn't a new government in place by November, will Gantz become caretaker Prime Minister under the previous rotation agreement? If so, that's both fantastic and hilarious!

Yeah it really does feel like November is when the nightmare ends, one way or another. It could get real messy on our way there, though.