Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Walmart_shopper]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

[Oryxslayer]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

Explain please.

Also there was a bunch of anti-Bibi protests last night, but as we all know crowd size =/= results.

[Hnv1]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

I'm baffled, I assume his internal polling shows that Bibi is short squeezing him atm

[jaymichaud]

Either Bennett is a huge wimp or genuinely stupid.

I’ll be surprised if he gets more than 6-7 seats tomorrow.

[danny]

The official results website for tomorrow:

https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

BTW the comparative turnout numbers might be misleading tomorrow because of the corona positive or in quarantine voting with double envelopes (although it's nowhere near as bad now as it was when the election was announced), so take them with a grain of salt.

[jaymichaud]

Final countdown prediction:
Gantz is in
Meretz and Ra'am out.
Bibi has no government with Yamina
Lapid has no government for a YA coalition
All hell is going to break loose in the house as the non Bibi majority will try to get rid of Levine and pass  a change to the basic law

http://objectivevote.org.il/?page=platforms&lang=he
a decent whodoIsidewith

Yesh Atid: 17
Meretz: 11
New Hope: 10
Labor: 10
B&W: 7
Yamina: 6
Yisrael Beiteinu: 3
Likud: 2
RZ: 1
------------
NEP: 0
------------
UAL: -1
UTJ: -3
Shas: -3
Joint List: -3

No correlation lol.

[danny]

Explain please.

Also there was a bunch of anti-Bibi protests last night, but as we all know crown size =/= results.

As usual this whole election, It's a big story that's all show. Bennet was on television and signed a paper that said he isn't going to join a coalition with Lapid as PM. I think this whole event looks ridiculous but keep in mind both Bennet and Saar have already claimed that they wouldn't do this anyway.

Personally I wouldn't trust what either of them say or sign on some meaningless paper.

[Motorcity]

If I lived in Israel, I'd be fed up by the constant elections? Its like a SNL skit

BTW, I am an ignorant American. But as the son of Palestitan immigrants, I am interested. What are the odds that Netanyahu is dethroned?

[Walmart_shopper]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

Explain please.

Also there was a bunch of anti-Bibi protests last night, but as we all know crowd size =/= results.

After spending weeks insisting that he would sign no document of Bibi's pledging any kind of loyalty Bennet went on tv last night with a document that...pledged that he would not sit under Lapid. It was the most sad, pavlovian thing ever.

[Walmart_shopper]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

I'm baffled, I assume his internal polling shows that Bibi is short squeezing him atm

As is electoral tradition, he is diving. And he's flailing. It's just that this time he's losing votes not just to Bibi but now he's also losing the few yuppie liberals in Ramat Aviv that had been supporting him hecause of his strong ideas on the pandemic.

[brucejoel99]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

They really better not go to a 5th election.

(Narrator: they're going to a 5th election.)

[Oryxslayer]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

I'm baffled, I assume his internal polling shows that Bibi is short squeezing him atm

As is electoral tradition, he is diving. And he's flailing. It's just that this time he's losing votes not just to Bibi but now he's also losing the few yuppie liberals in Ramat Aviv that had been supporting him hecause of his strong ideas on the pandemic.

The National Religious are always squeezed by Likud's Gevalt right at the end of the campaign (which is why the Kahanists are probably out and wasting votes), and since it happens like clockwork and they don't know how to stop it, things like this happen.

[America Needs R'hllor]

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

I'm baffled, I assume his internal polling shows that Bibi is short squeezing him atm

As is electoral tradition, he is diving. And he's flailing. It's just that this time he's losing votes not just to Bibi but now he's also losing the few yuppie liberals in Ramat Aviv that had been supporting him hecause of his strong ideas on the pandemic.

The National Religious are always squeezed by Likud's Gevalt right at the end of the campaign (which is why the Kahanists are probably out and wasting votes), and since it happens like clockwork and they don't know how to stop it, things like this happen.

The Kahanists are not out imo. Bibi has been making tremendous effort to get them in, shared voter data with them (good to know my PM shared my data with terrorists), encouraged people to vote for them if they don't vote Likud.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Slight rise in turnout as of 10 AM compared to last time. I believe this is good for Netanyahu?

[Walmart_shopper]

Slight rise in turnout as of 10 AM compared to last time. U believe this is good for Netanyahu?

Who knows. The right bloc pretty much maxxed out its turnout last year, so any increase in turnout is more likely than not to be among lower propensity voters in Tel Aviv and Arab areas. But without local numbers and further turnout reports it's hard to know what is happening.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some scattered reports on a very weak Arab turnout so far. Jack Khoury says that Arara and Kfar Qara are at only about 6% as of 10am. On the other hand he reports that Nazareth and one area in Haifa are at 14 to 15 percent. The Arab vote almost always comes in late, so to see major Arab population centers so high so early is incredible and certainly contradicts the idea that Arab turnout is low.

[H. Ross Peron]

Besides Arabs, who are the high and low turnout groups in Israeli politics? People mentioned Tel Aviv having low turnout which kind of surprised me since doesn't the city have more educated and affluent voters? Or does it simply mean younger voters in the city?

[Walmart_shopper]

Besides Arabs, who are the high and low turnout groups in Israeli politics? People mentioned Tel Aviv having low turnout which kind of surprised me since doesn't the city have more educated and affluent voters? Or does it simply mean younger voters in the city?

Haredim, kibbutznikim, settlers, and wealthy liberals in the Tel Aviv area--Center--have the highest turnout. Blue collars voters in the poorer "periphery," Arabs, and young voters in Tel Aviv have lower turnout.

[America Needs R'hllor]

12:00 turnout- actually a decrease from last time.

[Hnv1]

12:00 turnout- actually a decrease from last time.

The precinct I chair is down by 8% mainly Arabs

[Walmart_shopper]

Lowest turnout as of 2pm since 2009, where the voting percentage reached 65%.

[Walmart_shopper]

So the Arab turnout drop is real, and final numbers for that sector could end up closer to 50 percent than the 60+ percent they have been getting. On the other hand the total national turnout may end up under 65%, a big drop from previous elections. So the voter apathy is showing up throughout the country.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is good news for Meretz. Hope they just get 4 seats and the rest go to Merav's Labour

[Not Me, Us]

I really can't blame people for not showing up. I'd be pretty miffed too if the US had elections this often.

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 4pm turnout was nearly five points lower than in the last elections--at 42.3%. This is one of the lowest numbers ever, only slightly ahead of the snoozefests of 2006 and 2009.