Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Vosem]

I was Labour and JL +13, Meretz  +9, YB+8.

Which is basically the four parties I’m on the fence with atm. Quite remarkable that Likud did not publish a platform since 2009.

YB seems very distinct from your other options, and the opinions you've expressed in your posting history. How come you are considering Lieberman?

(Also, in general, how do you plan to decide between those options?)

[Hnv1]

I was Labour and JL +13, Meretz  +9, YB+8.

Which is basically the four parties I’m on the fence with atm. Quite remarkable that Likud did not publish a platform since 2009.

YB seems very distinct from your other options, and the opinions you've expressed in your posting history. How come you are considering Lieberman?

(Also, in general, how do you plan to decide between those options?)

Well. I never denied being more economically to the right than current Labour/Meretz. Secondly, as the Palestinian issue is currently a non issue and I think we’ll be heading towards a fifth election, and the big moves will be the legislations against Bibi in the house. In that dirty trench warfare I prefer a vicious Lieberman over some soft poached egg reform Rabbi. I truly believe Lieberem hates Bibi and won’t rest until he’s finished. So in that sense it’s strictly instrumental.

Meretz is out of the question, having been a member for almost two decades I truly believe this party must die for the left to rebuild.
I think I will decide according to the last polls and voters percentage through Election Day. Right now it’s between Labour and JL. If the turnout will be remarkable low I may trend towards YB, as a precinct secretary I can vote whenever I please.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

With only superficial knowledge of Israeli politics, I got Meretz +32, Yesh Atid +24, Joint List +18, New Hope +16, Labor +13. My lowest ratings are with Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism (all -3), Yamina (-7) and Religious Zionism (-8).

[America Needs R'hllor]

My current prediction:
Likud- 34
Yesh Atid- 23
Yamina- 9
Joint List- 8
Shas- 8
New Hope- 7
Yisrael Beiteinu- 7
United Torah Judaism- 7
Religious Zionism- 5
Labour- 4
Meretz- 4
KL- 4
Ra'am- 0

62 Seats for the Likud-Yamina-Shas-UTJ-Kahana coalition. I'm not very optimistic.

[Hnv1]

My current prediction:
Likud- 34
Yesh Atid- 23
Yamina- 9
Joint List- 8
Shas- 8
New Hope- 7
Yisrael Beiteinu- 7
United Torah Judaism- 7
Religious Zionism- 5
Labour- 4
Meretz- 4
KL- 4
Ra'am- 0

62 Seats for the Likud-Yamina-Shas-UTJ-Kahana coalition. I'm not very optimistic.

I doubt it mainly as the numbers don't add up here. The same lump of parties here got 58 last time around? where are the extra 4 coming from? actually even more as Sa'ar definitely takes some votes from Likud.
This bloc will get more than 60 only if 2 of Ra'am\KL\Meretz fail to meet the threshold

[Hnv1]

Former PM Olmert endorses...Labour

[Walmart_shopper]

I will just drop my prediction here. I am actually quite pessimistic about how this will go, and am generally assuming that Bibi and the Kahanists will get their majority. But when I go seat by seat it just looks like it's hard to see where Netanyahu actually finds 61 seats. He is close but he would either need a solid number of liberals to back him despite not doing so in years, or he would need a serious turnout drop among the Arab population or in the liberal Center. Turnout is already pretty low in the Center so it can't go much lower, and Arab turnout projections are all quite strong. But still I feel like Israeli democracy is cooked and that this will he our Erdogen/Orban moment. I guess we'll see.

Likud 33
YA 20
Liberman 9
Joint List 10
Saar 8
Shas 9
Yamina 7
Yahadut Hatorah 7
Labor 5
Raam 4
Meretz 4
Kahanists & co. 4

Netanyahu's right bloc (inc. Bennet) 59
Raam 4
Everyone else: 57

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, what if Bibi's bloc *does* fall just short of the magic 60 again?

How many times will people be asked to vote before they get the "right" (and indeed, right) answer??

[Hnv1]

I mean, what if Bibi's bloc *does* fall just short of the magic 60 again?

How many times will people be asked to vote before they get the "right" (and indeed, right) answer??

My sincere opinion is that this is another standstill, Bibi would not risk triggering automatic PM Gantz in November hence the election of the 25th Knesset (i.e. the fifth cycle) will turn into the election to the 2nd constitutional assembly motivating the right behind him to win and enact constitutional changes. Hence, bringing about the "Second Israeli Republic"

[America Needs R'hllor]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

[Oryxslayer]

I mean, what if Bibi's bloc *does* fall just short of the magic 60 again?

How many times will people be asked to vote before they get the "right" (and indeed, right) answer??

I mean it would be very hard for neither Likud+Haredi+Yamina+Kahanists or YA+NH+Yamina+KL+Labor+Meretz+BW to get a majority of seats since Yamina at least appears to want to work with either alignment if they get a majority - albeit preferring Bibi of course. If neither has a majority though I expect Bibi to use the soft power tools of a dominant-party system to pull in Likudists from NH. Similar situation to if one of the blocks gets a majority since individual Likudites in NH/Likud would prefer power, and then hop to the one which has the majority. If it happens to be the non-Likud govt then defectors mean they a govt can form without the minor leftists, which would allow the govt to potentially last longer than it takes to see Bibi permanently tossed aside.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

I am still not sure who I am supporting. Pretty much split between Labor and the JL. I love Ibtisah at #7 on the Labor list and want to aee her in the Knesset.

[brucejoel99]

Welcome back, Walmart_shopper!

Former PM Olmert endorses...Labour

I'm sure they're just soo thrilled to have the endorsement of an ex-PM who went to prison for corruption.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

I am still not sure who I am supporting. Pretty much split between Labor and the JL. I love Ibtisah at #7 on the Labor list and want to aee her in the Knesset.

Same, I hope they overperform enough to get her in. Doubt it, though

[Hnv1]

Welcome back, Walmart_shopper!

Former PM Olmert endorses...Labour

I'm sure they're just soo thrilled to have the endorsement of an ex-PM who went to prison for corruption.

Olmert is remembered rather fondly. He went to prison and resigned without leading the entire country down the rabbit hole, and his three years saw a lot of economic growth. I’m sure there’s swing voters between labour and YA that do mind what he has to say (I guess that’s why he has a weekly column in Maariv).

Olmert would have beaten Bibi if he had a party behind him now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I know so many leftists voting for them despite preferring Labour by a lot just to "save them from the threshold". It's just anecdotal but I could really see a situation where they get the same amount of seats or Meretz passes Labour because leftists are master tacticians.

[jaichind]

So what will happen if both Ra'am and Meretz make it and the Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+Religious Zionist does not cross 60 ? Who in the opposition will Netanyahu try to rope in this time "for the good of the country" ?

[Vosem]

So what will happen if both Ra'am and Meretz make it and the Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+Religious Zionist does not cross 60 ? Who in the opposition will Netanyahu try to rope in this time "for the good of the country" ?

Probably various individual New Hope MKs, most of whom are former members of the Likud who have supported Bibi before? I'm not sure it'll work, though, since Bibi only needed to persuade one person to win back in April 2019*, and he still failed.

*And he literally did end up persuading Gadi Yevarkan to flip from Blue and White to Likud...after the second, September election. This whole crisis came very close to not happening at all!

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

I am still not sure who I am supporting. Pretty much split between Labor and the JL. I love Ibtisah at #7 on the Labor list and want to aee her in the Knesset.

Same, I hope they overperform enough to get her in. Doubt it, though

She is disqualified, I thought?

[Walmart_shopper]

Welcome back, Walmart_shopper!

Former PM Olmert endorses...Labour

I'm sure they're just soo thrilled to have the endorsement of an ex-PM who went to prison for corruption.

Thanks. I wish I was as optimistic about our political future as I once was, bur man it is grim these days. Feels like the exact inverse of America right now.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

I am still not sure who I am supporting. Pretty much split between Labor and the JL. I love Ibtisah at #7 on the Labor list and want to aee her in the Knesset.

Same, I hope they overperform enough to get her in. Doubt it, though

She is disqualified, I thought?

The right wing hacks on the election panel disqualified her, as they like to do to Arabs especially, it seems. But the Supreme Ciurt annulled it, also as usual, and allowed her to run. This happens every election.

Literally the only thing standing between us and outright Jim Crow, which is fairly popular among the public, is the Court, and I can't imagine an independent judiciary will survive if Bibi gets his majority. Israeli democracy is literally hanging by the thin thread of a Supreme Court and its broad use of a Basic Law that isn't even a constitution.  That is why the right campaigns on gutting the Court and why right wing voters are so respoinsive to that kind of campaigning. They neutralize the Court and there is literally nothing to keep them from doing whatever they want. The public won't stop them. The opposition in Israel is scared of its own shadow. The military isn't going to launch a coup. The international community is powerless to do anything.  So the Court is what's left and everyone here knows it, and as in the US the issue of the Supreme Court simply is far more salient on the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

So what will happen if both Ra'am and Meretz make it and the Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+Religious Zionist does not cross 60 ? Who in the opposition will Netanyahu try to rope in this time "for the good of the country" ?

Most likely a fifth election, but Raam could be persuaded to join a Netanyahu government. There is a lot of talk abour defections from Saar's party, although I am somewhat skeptical of that actually happening.

Pretty amazing that literal supporters of ethnic cleansing are willing to work with an Islamist party to get Bibi his majority but center-right people like Saar's party are apparently unwilling to let a fairly mainstream progressive party like the Joint List prop up a centrist government. It really does show how Israeli politics are largely defined by political will these days, and the right pretty much owns that area.

[Hnv1]

Also, my little vote test results were:

Joint List 24
Meretz 21
Yesh Atid 12
Labor 10
Gantz 8
Raam 7
Saar 5
YB 3
UTJ & Shas -2
Likud -5
Kahanists & co. -6
Yamina -7

I am kind of disappointed in how Meretz has campaigned, though. I like what Labor has done--a lot. And Liberman has grown immensely on me. But yeah this is basically how I feel.

Will you be voting Labor?

I am still not sure who I am supporting. Pretty much split between Labor and the JL. I love Ibtisah at #7 on the Labor list and want to aee her in the Knesset.

Same, I hope they overperform enough to get her in. Doubt it, though

She is disqualified, I thought?

The right wing hacks on the election panel disqualified her, as they like to do to Arabs especially, it seems. But the Supreme Ciurt annulled it, also as usual, and allowed her to run. This happens every election.

Literally the only thing standing between us and outright Jim Crow, which is fairly popular among the public, is the Court, and I can't imagine an independent judiciary will survive if Bibi gets his majority. Israeli democracy is literally hanging by the thin thread of a Supreme Court and its broad use of a Basic Law that isn't even a constitution.  That is why the right campaigns on gutting the Court and why right wing voters are so respoinsive to that kind of campaigning. They neutralize the Court and there is literally nothing to keep them from doing whatever they want. The public won't stop them. The opposition in Israel is scared of its own shadow. The military isn't going to launch a coup. The international community is powerless to do anything.  So the Court is what's left and everyone here knows it, and as in the US the issue of the Supreme Court simply is far more salient on the right.

The Basic Law has a more direct reading option for Judicial Review than the US Constitution with section 11 and the Kelsenian structure of Israeli public law. Marbury v. Madison was much more radical than our SC ruling in 1994 in the jurisprudential sense.
"11 All governmental authorities are bound to respect the rights under this Basic Law."
which is actually a bad translation as the Hebrew texts reads "each branch of government" כל רשות מרשויות השלטון

Also, the Basic Laws are a constitution, there's nothing in a single document titled "constitution" that makes it more of a constitution than the British-German influenced Israeli basic laws.  

The problem isn't with the judiciary (well there are a lot of problems with it but none pivotal, and the AG position should be abolished). The matter of fact is that the Israeli judiciary was founded and formulated by a handful of German Jews and British-trained lawyers bringing with them liberal norms that the vast majority of the Israeli population simply does not hold. That includes to a lesser extent Ashkenaz and to a greater extent Sephardi jews.

Liberal democracy isn't just the text of a constitution, it's the rule-following nature of the customs and norms that are grounded in the text but breathe liberal life to the text. But those customs and norms can only prevail in a society that has respect to the values that model liberal norms. Israeli society-at-large is not that type of a society, it never was, and it's getting further from there with the demographic changes. Bibism is a symptom not the actual problem. Bibists will remain with us long after Bibi is gone, joined by Haredi, fascists Kookists, outright Volkist Chabad, and the general populist-nationalist center.

It was always an uphill battle. But the left needs to internalize the fact that it is going to lose sooner or later within the current democratic game. We are postponing the end, which I'm in favor of, but we need to accept that we will have to resort to drastic means in the future.

[CumbrianLefty]

Welcome back, Walmart_shopper!

Former PM Olmert endorses...Labour

I'm sure they're just soo thrilled to have the endorsement of an ex-PM who went to prison for corruption.

Thanks. I wish I was as optimistic about our political future as I once was, bur man it is grim these days. Feels like the exact inverse of America right now.

Feels a bit like that in the UK right now. Of course, one reason for a touch of optimism is that what happens in the US might have an effect on others over time. As has certainly happened before.

(and will either Bibi or BoJo be happy, deep down, at losing their buddy Trump?)