Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Estrella]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

Labour is Isreali politics' best imitation of a zombie. Change my mind.

*snippity snip*

I love this. Thank you.

_{Why do all Israeli party logos look like they ripped them off the cover of a supermarket flyer tho}

[Hnv1]

I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

my careful prediction is Lazimi will finish above Moati.

Hard to tell. I think Michaeli will him and Karin Nahun a spot just to push Eran Hermoni back and have another woman. I definitely think this is the end to vanity personal parties. Huldai did an IPO, the market didn't value his stock highly, he should have took labour instead of starting a new one

Pushing out Hermoni would be good. Idk why but he annoys me.
Also really hope Moati beats Lazimi.

Moati has a lot of admirers, sadly for her most of them aren’t labour members. Lazimi has the old Peretz and Shelly camps behind her, along with some of the old guard. I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s the “second lady”.

Telem drop out. No one cares

[Hnv1]

Labour list:
Michaeli
Bar Lev
Moati
Gilad Kariv
Efrat Reiten (not joking)
Ram Shefa

From there unrealistic spots. Michaeli can drop in 2 people in the top 10

[America Needs R'hllor]

LABOUR PRIMARY RESULTS:
1. Omer Bar Lev
2. Emily Moati
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Rayten (attorney and former children's star)
5. Ram Shefa
6. Ibtisam Mara'ana Menuhin
7. Nachman Shai
8. Naama Lazimi

I voted for places 1-3 and 6

[jaymichaud]

I'm not even center-left but Merav's determination has me rooting for her, what a woman!

[warandwar]

LABOUR PRIMARY RESULTS:
1. Omer Bar Lev
2. Emily Moati
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Rayten (attorney and former children's star)
5. Ram Shefa
6. Ibtisam Mara'ana Menuhin
7. Nachman Shai
8. Naama Lazimi

I voted for places 1-3 and 6

big contrast between 6,7, and 8 lol. Palestinian documentarian, IDF spokesman, LGBT Mizrahi activist

[Hnv1]

LABOUR PRIMARY RESULTS:
1. Omer Bar Lev
2. Emily Moati
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Rayten (attorney and former children's star)
5. Ram Shefa
6. Ibtisam Mara'ana Menuhin
7. Nachman Shai
8. Naama Lazimi

I voted for places 1-3 and 6

big contrast between 6,7, and 8 lol. Palestinian documentarian, IDF spokesman, LGBT Mizrahi activist

I’m pretty sure Lazimi is a straight woman. I know she just gave birth.

1 former colonel, 2 spokesperson for Balad, reform “Rabbi”, 4 former children starlet.

That’s a motley crew...it will be hard to find the difference with Meretz though atm. Could be a problem for both

[Continential]

How did the Israelis collapse if they did collapse?

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 Poll:
Likud 29
Yesh Atid 16
New Hope 16
Joint List 10
Yamina 10
Labor 8 (!!)
UTJ 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beytenu 7
Meretz 5
Blue and White 4

[Hnv1]

How did the Israelis collapse if they did collapse?

Going into an already crowded field. Huldai staying as mayor and the general discontent with party inflation that followed. I would also point to the fact that Huldai may be a stronger candidate for PM but voters realized he’s not going to be in a position to form a government in any scenario, so then what’s the point?

[Kingpoleon]

Who is the most likely non-Netanyahu PM? Lapid?

[Continential]

Who is the most likely non-Netanyahu PM? Lapid?

Sa'ar I'm pretty sure.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Dany Yatom's senior party dropped out. I guess they free up like, 3000 votes.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Three parties already submitted their lists today- Yesh Atid, Yamina and Kahol Lavan. That means they're running alone and won't get into any joint list (no Sa'ar-Yamina union). I suspect as KL sinks further and further below the threshold they might drop out, but they'll still be on the ballot and burn some votes.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

Lapid clearly tried to fix this, but it's still a very man-heavy list. #2 is Orly Barbivai, Yesh Atid MK and the first woman major general, and there are 3 women in the top 5 (Barbivai + MK Karin Elharar + Merav Cohen, Ben Ari is 9th), but these are the only 4 women in the top 15. 4 no name women crowd places 17-20- the good old trick of "we have equal representation!" but most women are in the periphery of realistic spots (famously employed by Yamina in round 3). The first non Jew is in the 26th spot. 2 gays and 2 Russian speakers in the top 15.

Yamina's list seems like a recruiting failure. The first four are alright- Bennet and Shaked, the Mayor of Sderot and Matan Kahane, a fairly visible MK. The rest are a mix of clowns, nobodies and Jewish Home refugees (for some 2 or 3 of the categories apply). A healthy dose of homophobia from the 5th place, some religious zionist education figure.

KL has Pnina Tamano Shata second, making her the highest ranking black woman in a party polling above the threshold ever to my knowledge, but it's a list of mostly center figures who stuck with Gantz and I don't see them passing.

In other news, Sa'ar got an imho great recruit in Ofer Berkovich, leader of the centrist Jerusalem Hitorerut Party which basically represents the "pluralist" anti-Haredi coalition there. Pretty major figure in Jerusalem who almost became Mayor, a young face, but I don't see a lot of fanfare rn. I wonder if Sa'ar will keep slipping further and further at this pace.

[Hnv1]

Three parties already submitted their lists today- Yesh Atid, Yamina and Kahol Lavan. That means they're running alone and won't get into any joint list (no Sa'ar-Yamina union). I suspect as KL sinks further and further below the threshold they might drop out, but they'll still be on the ballot and burn some votes.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

Lapid clearly tried to fix this, but it's still a very man-heavy list. #2 is Orly Barbivai, Yesh Atid MK and the first woman major general, and there are 3 women in the top 5 (Barbivai + MK Karin Elharar + Merav Cohen, Ben Ari is 9th), but these are the only 4 women in the top 15. 4 no name women crowd places 17-20- the good old trick of "we have equal representation!" but most women are in the periphery of realistic spots (famously employed by Yamina in round 3). The first non Jew is in the 26th spot. 2 gays and 2 Russian speakers in the top 15.

Yamina's list seems like a recruiting failure. The first four are alright- Bennet and Shaked, the Mayor of Sderot and Matan Kahane, a fairly visible MK. The rest are a mix of clowns, nobodies and Jewish Home refugees (for some 2 or 3 of the categories apply). A healthy dose of homophobia from the 5th place, some religious zionist education figure.

KL has Pnina Tamano Shata second, making her the highest ranking black woman in a party polling above the threshold ever to my knowledge, but it's a list of mostly center figures who stuck with Gantz and I don't see them passing.

In other news, Sa'ar got an imho great recruit in Ofer Berkovich, leader of the centrist Jerusalem Hitorerut Party which basically represents the "pluralist" anti-Haredi coalition there. Pretty major figure in Jerusalem who almost became Mayor, a young face, but I don't see a lot of fanfare rn. I wonder if Sa'ar will keep slipping further and further at this pace.

YA at least fielded a list with a decent amount of ministerial material. Yamina looks depleted from 4th down, Bennett just doesn't get that this isn't a presidential system no matter how much Bibi acts as if it does.

Ok catch for Saar, I don't think it will move voters from the right but it's the internal game against Lapid.

*I find it weird to call PTS a "black woman", well she is of course Ethiopian but we don't use this term in Hebrew and I wouldn't want to import it here

[America Needs R'hllor]

Three parties already submitted their lists today- Yesh Atid, Yamina and Kahol Lavan. That means they're running alone and won't get into any joint list (no Sa'ar-Yamina union). I suspect as KL sinks further and further below the threshold they might drop out, but they'll still be on the ballot and burn some votes.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

Lapid clearly tried to fix this, but it's still a very man-heavy list. #2 is Orly Barbivai, Yesh Atid MK and the first woman major general, and there are 3 women in the top 5 (Barbivai + MK Karin Elharar + Merav Cohen, Ben Ari is 9th), but these are the only 4 women in the top 15. 4 no name women crowd places 17-20- the good old trick of "we have equal representation!" but most women are in the periphery of realistic spots (famously employed by Yamina in round 3). The first non Jew is in the 26th spot. 2 gays and 2 Russian speakers in the top 15.

Yamina's list seems like a recruiting failure. The first four are alright- Bennet and Shaked, the Mayor of Sderot and Matan Kahane, a fairly visible MK. The rest are a mix of clowns, nobodies and Jewish Home refugees (for some 2 or 3 of the categories apply). A healthy dose of homophobia from the 5th place, some religious zionist education figure.

KL has Pnina Tamano Shata second, making her the highest ranking black woman in a party polling above the threshold ever to my knowledge, but it's a list of mostly center figures who stuck with Gantz and I don't see them passing.

In other news, Sa'ar got an imho great recruit in Ofer Berkovich, leader of the centrist Jerusalem Hitorerut Party which basically represents the "pluralist" anti-Haredi coalition there. Pretty major figure in Jerusalem who almost became Mayor, a young face, but I don't see a lot of fanfare rn. I wonder if Sa'ar will keep slipping further and further at this pace.

YA at least fielded a list with a decent amount of ministerial material. Yamina looks depleted from 4th down, Bennett just doesn't get that this isn't a presidential system no matter how much Bibi acts as if it does.

Ok catch for Saar, I don't think it will move voters from the right but it's the internal game against Lapid.

*I find it weird to call PTS a "black woman", well she is of course Ethiopian but we don't use this term in Hebrew and I wouldn't want to import it here

Oh yeah I should've said "Ethiopian". Quite different politically in Israel, but still notable.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Smotrich and Otzma's Ben Gvir reached an agreement to run together. Ben Gvir placed third, the representative of rabidly homophobic party Noam 6th.

New Hope list:
1. Gideon Sa'ar
2. Yifat Shasha Biton
3. Ze'ev Elkin, former major Likud figure
4. Yoaz Hendel, trojan horse
5. Sharen Haskel, libertarian darling from Likud
6. Benny Begin, former MK and son of former PM Begin
7. Meir Yitzhak Halevi, Eilat Mayor
8. Zvi Hauser, trojan horse
9. Michal Shir, former MK and Sa'ar aide
10. Hila Shai Vazan, former KL MK

Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

[danny]

Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

11: Danny Dayan
12: Michel Buskila
13: Ofer Berkovich
14: Avi Ganon
15:Michal Diamant

[jaymichaud]

Smotrich and Otzma's Ben Gvir reached an agreement to run together. Ben Gvir placed third, the representative of rabidly homophobic party Noam 6th.

Absolutely disgusting. There’s no depth these guys and the other usual suspects won’t sink to.

The court needs to disqualify Ben Ari and the leader of Noam immediately.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

11: Danny Dayan
12: Michel Buskila
13: Ofer Berkovich
14: Avi Ganon
15:Michal Diamant

Lolwut? Figures like Berkovich and Dayan at these spots? Weird. they bring a lot more to the table than Vazan, Shir or the two trojan horses.

[danny]

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

She attacked her for specific actions and statements, not for some vague idea of "representing left wing positions". Specifically she attacked her for disrespecting the holocaust memorial siren. I don't know why this would be a left wing position (and which to me sounds insulting to the left).

[Oryxslayer]

Smotrich and Otzma's Ben Gvir reached an agreement to run together. Ben Gvir placed third, the representative of rabidly homophobic party Noam 6th.

New Hope list:
1. Gideon Sa'ar
2. Yifat Shasha Biton
3. Ze'ev Elkin, former major Likud figure
4. Yoaz Hendel, trojan horse
5. Sharen Haskel, libertarian darling from Likud
6. Benny Begin, former MK and son of former PM Begin
7. Meir Yitzhak Halevi, Eilat Mayor
8. Zvi Hauser, trojan horse
9. Michal Shir, former MK and Sa'ar aide
10. Hila Shai Vazan, former KL MK

Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

Oh, and their calling JH to join their list, so the Fascist ticket may not be final.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Bibi promised the 28th place on Likud's list for Smotrich's representative in exchange for uniting with the Jewish Home and Otzma-Noam. Benjamin Franz von Pappen Netanyahu.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

She attacked her for specific actions and statements, not for some vague idea of "representing left wing positions". Specifically she attacked her for disrespecting the holocaust memorial siren. I don't know why this would be a left wing position (and which to me sounds insulting to the left).

This was a facebook comment I definitely didn't like and disagreed with, but it was infuriating to see that pattern of the mainstream media rummaging through the social media of a new Arab political figure to find anything that could doubt their loyalty. The first posts picked upon were just mainstream left positions lamenting the situation in Gaza but putting most of the blame on Hamas. The fact that this is what Ben Ari is focusing on is a bad indicator, especially considering she came from a party that was already a Netanyahu puppet.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Increasingly likely that Huldai drops out. Some tiny party that ran in the past named "Israelis" registered yesterday, I suspect mostly to troll Huldai. The only response of his party was that they were not going to run alone anyway. As good as over for them- a power move from Michaeli.

[America Needs R'hllor]

No unions for Labour. Shelah likely not running, Huldai still thinking but I doubt he runs. Michaeli played chicken with three men and won