Rate Nevada for 2022

[VAR]

Pure tossup*.

*Memo to the author of this thread : if you want to do polls about 2022 Senate elections, you should offer the ''tossup'' option considering how early it is

Yeah. I personally don't like the "pure toss-up" or "toss-up" option, but I do realize that it's too far out. There'll be a toss-up option from now on.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tossup/tilt D.

CCM has the incumbency advantage and NV is a slightly Dem-leaning state, but Dems really underperformed in 2020 with favorable environment. Good news for CCM is the apparent lack of a formidable GOP candidate. I'd argue even closer to Lean D, but it's far from impossible to flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once D's become the Majority party they will have the needed funds available to protect our majority, of course the Minority party, it has less funds

[Gracile]

Pure tossup for now. This past election showed that Nevada's Democratic lean was overstated, and CCM could lose on a bad night for Democrats. That said, it will be tough for the GOP to find the votes to eke out a narrow win when they have to tap into Clark and Washoe (their best bet is probably if there is a lower turnout overall).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Hard to know what the ~national environment~ looks like in 2022, but, people are underestimating the D lean in Nevada and reading too much into weird blippy trends.

Biden still won Nevada pretty handily. He netted 164K votes over Hillary. Trump only beat his 2016 total by 157K - this in a state that was almost as demographically favorable to him in 2020 as you could ask for.

People are unskewing too much by comparing this shift to the national average. So what if NV was two points to the right of the NPV in 2020? The Senate+Gov races were four points to the right of the national house vote in 2018, and NV didn't come close to flipping this year. Besides, it's a pretty big ask to get NPV to below two for Dems, even in a midterm year. It's not 2014 anymore.

Without any knowledge of the national environment or opponent (Amodei seems like the best pick for Rs), I'd still put CCM over 80% likely to win this race. Honestly, probably closer to 90% than 80.

[Annatar]

Hard to know what the ~national environment~ looks like in 2022, but, people are underestimating the D lean in Nevada and reading too much into weird blippy trends.

Biden still won Nevada pretty handily. He netted 164K votes over Hillary. Trump only beat his 2016 total by 157K - this in a state that was almost as demographically favorable to him in 2020 as you could ask for.

People are unskewing too much by comparing this shift to the national average. So what if NV was two points to the right of the NPV in 2020? The Senate+Gov races were four points to the right of the national house vote in 2018, and NV didn't come close to flipping this year. Besides, it's a pretty big ask to get NPV to below two for Dems, even in a midterm year. It's not 2014 anymore.

Without any knowledge of the national environment or opponent (Amodei seems like the best pick for Rs), I'd still put CCM over 80% likely to win this race. Honestly, probably closer to 90% than 80.

Why won't the NPV go below 2 for dems, the GOP won the house vote by 7% in 2010 and nearly 6% in 2014, that is what happens in midterms, why won't Republicans win the house vote by 6-7% in 2022, there is no reason to believe they won't.

[GALeftist]

Hard to know what the ~national environment~ looks like in 2022, but, people are underestimating the D lean in Nevada and reading too much into weird blippy trends.

Biden still won Nevada pretty handily. He netted 164K votes over Hillary. Trump only beat his 2016 total by 157K - this in a state that was almost as demographically favorable to him in 2020 as you could ask for.

People are unskewing too much by comparing this shift to the national average. So what if NV was two points to the right of the NPV in 2020? The Senate+Gov races were four points to the right of the national house vote in 2018, and NV didn't come close to flipping this year. Besides, it's a pretty big ask to get NPV to below two for Dems, even in a midterm year. It's not 2014 anymore.

Without any knowledge of the national environment or opponent (Amodei seems like the best pick for Rs), I'd still put CCM over 80% likely to win this race. Honestly, probably closer to 90% than 80.

Why won't the NPV go below 2 for dems, the GOP won the house vote by 7% in 2010 and nearly 6% in 2014, that is what happens in midterms, why won't Republicans win the house vote by 6-7% in 2022, there is no reason to believe they won't.

Biden's coalition looks very different than Obama's, though, plus we've already seen very high midterm turnout in 2018.

[Frenchrepublican]

Hard to know what the ~national environment~ looks like in 2022, but, people are underestimating the D lean in Nevada and reading too much into weird blippy trends.

Biden still won Nevada pretty handily. He netted 164K votes over Hillary. Trump only beat his 2016 total by 157K - this in a state that was almost as demographically favorable to him in 2020 as you could ask for.

People are unskewing too much by comparing this shift to the national average. So what if NV was two points to the right of the NPV in 2020? The Senate+Gov races were four points to the right of the national house vote in 2018, and NV didn't come close to flipping this year. Besides, it's a pretty big ask to get NPV to below two for Dems, even in a midterm year. It's not 2014 anymore.

Without any knowledge of the national environment or opponent (Amodei seems like the best pick for Rs), I'd still put CCM over 80% likely to win this race. Honestly, probably closer to 90% than 80.

Why won't the NPV go below 2 for dems, the GOP won the house vote by 7% in 2010 and nearly 6% in 2014, that is what happens in midterms, why won't Republicans win the house vote by 6-7% in 2022, there is no reason to believe they won't.

Winning the NPV by 6 or 7 looks difficult to me, 2010 and 2014 were basically another era, the electorate is more polarised now, the democratic coalition includes more college educated white voters than six years ago, and it's likely that the the turnout drop-off among dem leaning voters will be smaller than in 2010/2014, now I doubt that 2022 will be good year for democrats like some people on this forum believe it will be, after all it will still be a Biden midterm and midterms dynamics are still a thing (see 2018), but I think that a R+3 or a R+4 year is much more likely than a 2010/2014 kind of wave.

[Annatar]

Hard to know what the ~national environment~ looks like in 2022, but, people are underestimating the D lean in Nevada and reading too much into weird blippy trends.

Biden still won Nevada pretty handily. He netted 164K votes over Hillary. Trump only beat his 2016 total by 157K - this in a state that was almost as demographically favorable to him in 2020 as you could ask for.

People are unskewing too much by comparing this shift to the national average. So what if NV was two points to the right of the NPV in 2020? The Senate+Gov races were four points to the right of the national house vote in 2018, and NV didn't come close to flipping this year. Besides, it's a pretty big ask to get NPV to below two for Dems, even in a midterm year. It's not 2014 anymore.

Without any knowledge of the national environment or opponent (Amodei seems like the best pick for Rs), I'd still put CCM over 80% likely to win this race. Honestly, probably closer to 90% than 80.

Why won't the NPV go below 2 for dems, the GOP won the house vote by 7% in 2010 and nearly 6% in 2014, that is what happens in midterms, why won't Republicans win the house vote by 6-7% in 2022, there is no reason to believe they won't.

Biden's coalition looks very different than Obama's, though, plus we've already seen very high midterm turnout in 2018.

Democrats did not do poorly in 2010 because of turnout, they did poorly because independents voted against them, turnout was higher in the 2010 midterms then 2006 for example. Differential turnout is not a real thing, the party ID of the electorate in 2018 was the same as 2016, why was 2016 a D+2 year and 2018 a D+7 year accounting for uncontested seats, well independents who were 30% of voters in both years went from R+4 to D+12, a 16% swing among a 30% group moves the margin by 4.8%, that explains the entire shift from D+2 to D+7.

There is an article Sean Trende has written on this that is somewhere on rcp where he actually lays out why the democrats did not do poorly due to turnout in the Obama midterms.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Please don't argue with French Republican he doesn't want D's to win Senate for obvious reasons that Rs don't want Dems to expand their majority and get Statehood

The GA polls have gone against the Rs and PA,WI and NC will too, this early Cook has a very favorable map for Ds

He's a naysayer and we will see the official end to McConnells Leadership. D's just have to wait til Jan 5th to prove Rs wrong when we win, and let them eat crow

CCM isn't losing and the D's have a Female Delegate enriched Delegation in the state and Federal legislature

[Greedo punched first]

Lean D? Unlike Clinton, Biden got an absolute majority in Nevada. Reno trended Democratic.