Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Badger]

Don't feed the troll, Bruce.

[Badger]

Bye Felicia. Though we'll likely get someone worse.

[Badger]

Maps? County numbers?

[Badger]

Maps? County numbers?

Wow. Surprised larae appears to have missed out on second place, especially to that slimeball Ron Hood.

The telling lesson here is that the winner was of course endorsed by Trump and have little else going for him over a host of elected officials, and the second-place finisher probably festoon his campaign signs as forever Trumper, I kid you not.

Once again, the Republican party has proven itself to be a cult of personality

[Badger]

Writing something up after I do some gaming. Suffice to say it's clear that certain factions of the Democratic establishment didn't get Biden/Schumer's memo and still believe we're Public Enemy #1B.

If Turner would have endorsed/voted for Hillary and Biden, like nearly every other elected Berniecrat did she would have won tonight.

This.

Nina Turner: "Biden is sh**t!"

Almost 90% of Democrats: " I like him" or at least " he's alright".

[Badger]

source

Explains a lot, I think.

Other than why Ron Hood still only managed an effective tie for second, technically third place.

The answer is, too many people actually know Ron Hood.

[Badger]

source

Explains a lot, I think.

Other than why Ron Hood still only managed an effective tie for second, technically third place.

The answer is, too many people actually know Ron Hood.

I will also comment that this race is a prime example of how lawn signs are a piss poor indicator of polling strength. I had driven through Perry County a couple times in the last few weeks and saw Bunches of cooperrider signs. I swear his ratio of votes to lawn signs was only about 15 to 1. Likewise I traveled through Jeff larae District Affair bit and saw massive numbers of signs for him. Even in those areas though, Carey signs were relatively rare even compared to those four say Bob Peterson and some of the others who've finished well back in the pack.

[Badger]

SNIP

source

Explains a lot, I think.

Other than why Ron Hood still only managed an effective tie for second, technically third place.

The answer is, too many people actually know Ron Hood.

I will also comment that this race is a prime example of how lawn signs are a piss poor indicator of polling strength. I had driven through Perry County a couple times in the last few weeks and saw Bunches of cooperrider signs. I swear his ratio of votes to lawn signs was only about 15 to 1. Likewise I traveled through Jeff larae District Affair bit and saw massive numbers of signs for him. Even in those areas though, Carey signs were relatively rare even compared to those four say Bob Peterson and some of the others who've finished well back in the pack.

This was a weird race in that basically every non-Carey serious candidate had a clear base of support. You can see this in the results below Carey, with the legislators margins overwhelmingly coming from their districts and Ruth Edmonds obviously doing better in Franklin. Kunze for example won negligible votes outside of Franklin. Carey's support was relatively evenly distributed. This means you will see lots of lawn signs for the base candidates in their base areas, outnumbering Carey in a particular area but maybe not overall.

Good analysis. The weird thing is though that Mike Carey did extraordinary well and winning every pocket of the district other than the southern half of Fayette County going for Peterson. He won Fairfield County for example despite Lancaster in the northern half being Jeff larae district, and the southern half being part of Ron hoods old District. He won Perry County despite cooperrider having been a county commissioner there. Carey signs in the former were occasional but not common at all, even less than Peterson signs, and were completely absent in Perry County.

I wouldn't have been all surprised if Mike Carey had one by running competitively / second place in most other candidates home basis, while perhaps winning the vote in Franklin County where he's from. But again he almost universally beat every other candidate on their home turf. Though perhaps in Jeff lauray's District hiiraan second but far enough above Hood and the others, and in hoods part of the county hiiraan second there but far enough against Loray and the others, to win the county overall.

And yes, I know my voice to text app sucks

[Badger]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

I agree 99%. The 1% I would add would be the term sandercrat. In fairness, I don't believe that this attitude compromises a small fraction of Sanders voters.

Regarding the Nina Turner /Bernie bro extreme wing of Sanders supporters, you are dead on.

[Badger]

OH-11 going overwhelmingly Dem

Rs ahead 54%-46% in the 15th so far

 The 15th is badly gerrymandered  Like the rest of Ohio, and this is an off your election with a Democrat in the White House. The only issue here is  The margin. Hopefully russo can avoid an embarrassment.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/VoteMariner/status/1479954065631203328

Yes?

[Badger]

It is looking like a neutral environment ATM which doesn't make sense even with Dobbs. Are Republicans really capable of choking against a President with a 40% approval rating who presides over a 9% inflation rate?

I mean the GOP in 1978 in a midterm after a close presidential defeat and a big win in VA the previous year had a very disappointing midterm .

Disappointing? The GOP picked up a net of three Senate seats, 15 house seats, and six Governor mansions. I mean, that may not be 2006 or 2014 level wave elections, but I'd hardly call it disappointing. I suspect Republicans would be doing backflips if they pulled that off this november.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

This is the correct take. Tonight's result showed that republicans won't have some huge popular vote win come November, or earn any kind of mandate. They'll get the House because of gerrymandering.

Ah, gerrymandering coming to the rescue of Republicans having to deal with popular will once again.

Inb4 something something a Republic not a democracy blah blah blah.