Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562288030005821440?t=aPR8cA45HGZxAICoY...

Interesting, I wonder what the result would be if you equalized turnout in all the counties.

Probably, Molinaro wins very narrowly. Ulster County's boost in turnout helped Democrats considerably on the margins here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that’s worth noting about these post-Dobbs special elections:

NE-01, MN-01, NY-23, and to a lesser degree NY-19 are all remarkably simillar districts:

-NE-01, MN-01, and NY-23 all voted nearly identically in 2016 and 2020 Pres
-All 4 districts are very white and culturally “northern”
-All 4 districts are predominantly rural with Dem support centralized around a mid sized city with heavy college influence
-Not so much with NY-19, but in the other 3 the rural areas are very dense and ruby red
-All 4 districts have clear redistricting successors
-All 4 districts are outside some larger metro (MSP, Omaha, NYC, and Buffalo) which may have some remote influence on the districts politics.

And in all 4 special elections we saw a simillar theme with the results:

-Dems mildly outperformed Biden in the district overall
-Turnout was solid for a special election, but obviously nowhere near what we’d expect come Nov
-Turnout is strongest in already D communities in the district and weaker in R areas
-Ds really juiced up margins out of these left-shifting midsized cities (or in the case of NY-19 tourism areas)
-Republicans matched or improved on Trumps margins in rural areas
-Canidates saw notable home boosts if their politics was specifically tied to a certain county

Im not saying we should ignore these results, but think about how simillar these 4 districts are out of all the possible House districts in the Country. What would happen in an exclusively well to do swingy urban/suburban district (VA-02, MN-02)? What would happen in a Southern rural black seat? (GA-02, NC-01), What would happen in a competative urban/suburban minority seat (CA-45, NV-04)? What would happen in a WWC district (PA-08, MI-08)

While we may be able to predict, there could be other dynamics going on in these other types of places that these special elections can’t tell us and it’s important to acknowledge that.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562288030005821440?t=aPR8cA45HGZxAICoY...

Interesting, I wonder what the result would be if you equalized turnout in all the counties.

Based on 2020 share of district by county: it didn't make the difference (depending on what any outstanding ballots have to say), but it definitely padded the margins:

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

cmon mods, you can't even fix an image width tag?

[Pericles]

It is looking like a neutral environment ATM which doesn't make sense even with Dobbs. Are Republicans really capable of choking against a President with a 40% approval rating who presides over a 9% inflation rate?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562305696200380418

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is looking like a neutral environment ATM which doesn't make sense even with Dobbs. Are Republicans really capable of choking against a President with a 40% approval rating who presides over a 9% inflation rate?

I mean the GOP in 1978 in a midterm after a close presidential defeat and a big win in VA the previous year had a very disappointing midterm .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R brand is bad because Trump brand is bad look what's going on TV with insurrection, the Rs aren't immune to Trump criminal investigation

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

This is the correct take. Tonight's result showed that republicans won't have some huge popular vote win come November, or earn any kind of mandate. They'll get the House because of gerrymandering.

[Sir Mohamed]

At least confirms polls can be off in both ways.

That said, I still think the GOP favored to take the House, but unless things shift between now and late October, it won't be a wipeout. Probably holding them at or under 230 seats while Dems have a shot taking it back in 2024 should Biden win reelection.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

This is the correct take. Tonight's result showed that republicans won't have some huge popular vote win come November, or earn any kind of mandate. They'll get the House because of gerrymandering.

Ah hate how many times I have to say this but redistricting really only created on net an R + 2 bias which is def overcomeable. This won’t be like last decade where gerrymandering ensured a lock on the House for the GOP

[Yoda]

It is looking like a neutral environment ATM which doesn't make sense even with Dobbs. Are Republicans really capable of choking against a President with a 40% approval rating who presides over a 9% inflation rate?

Well, to be fair, Biden's approval rating is rapidly improving according to the last two polls I saw (understandable after the big legislative wins and killing Zawahiri) so 40% may not be all that accurate, and you have to remember that trump has successfully managed to the be the first ex-president to succeed in making a midterm at least in part a referendum on himself. The environment for dems is arguably improving as we speak.

[emailking]

i had to turn off javacript to read this thread because twitter is down and it stops loading of the page below an embedded tweet.

[Pericles]

It is looking like a neutral environment ATM which doesn't make sense even with Dobbs. Are Republicans really capable of choking against a President with a 40% approval rating who presides over a 9% inflation rate?

Well, to be fair, Biden's approval rating is rapidly improving according to the last two polls I saw (understandable after the big legislative wins and killing Zawahiri) so 40% may not be all that accurate, and you have to remember that trump has successfully managed to the be the first ex-president to succeed in making a midterm at least in part a referendum on himself. The environment for dems is arguably improving as we speak.

40% is still a low number, he is historically unpopular, more than Trump even, and it has been a rough two years for the country.

Also an underrated liability with inflation is that Democrats haven't passed anything that eases the immediate cost of living or gets inflation down soon. The Inflation Reduction Act is actually mainly a climate action bill that makes America more resilient to future energy shocks. Maybe voters will be fooled by the name though.

[Spectator]

I think the chances of a GOP upset in New Hampshire are probably notably lower given this result.

[Brittain33]

Petition to eliminate the poll question posted on the thread.

This happens whenever a thread with a poll is merged into another thread, and I haven’t found a way to prevent or fix it.

[windjammer]

I think the chances of a GOP upset in New Hampshire are probably notably lower given this result.

And in NJ

[Pollster]

Not gloating but still seriously confused at the "Molinaro is a strong candidate" takes.

What exactly was the evidence behind that? Just not being a 2020 election denier doesn't make you a strong candidate. Molinaro was also obviously against abortion rights even though he tried to not make it an issue. Sorry, Marc, voters made clear it was an issue.

This is hindsight bias. Molinaro is an established elected official with significant vote-getting experience in one of the key regions of the district, was well-funded and outspent his opponent, and carried the district relatively easily in an otherwise uncompetitive statewide election in a much more Democratic-leaning climate despite being badly outspent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are gonna keep losing because they aren't offering anything they are just trying to ride Gerrymandering into Nov that's not gonna work

The Senate is over we are very like ro get 52/55 seats if we get 55 Ryan, BEASLEY and Demings get elected then there is no way for Rs to win an R Trifecta in 24 even if we lose the H because we will get Biden reelected and win 12 seats back in 24 and we will have 3 extra seats as wave insurance for 24 and then DC Statehood for either 22/24

That's why Rs don't want to believe OH, NC and FL are in play because it's 55 not 52

But FL is 15% Blk and 26 Latino, NC 20% Blk and OH 12% Blk and we can even win TX Abbott is only ahead 46/39

[wbrocks67]

Not gloating but still seriously confused at the "Molinaro is a strong candidate" takes.

What exactly was the evidence behind that? Just not being a 2020 election denier doesn't make you a strong candidate. Molinaro was also obviously against abortion rights even though he tried to not make it an issue. Sorry, Marc, voters made clear it was an issue.

This is hindsight bias. Molinaro is an established elected official with significant vote-getting experience in one of the key regions of the district, was well-funded and outspent his opponent, and carried the district relatively easily in an otherwise uncompetitive statewide election in a much more Democratic-leaning climate despite being badly outspent.

You're correct, he was a great recruit. But even before last night, I never got the hot takes that just because of all of that, he would win easily in this climate (post-Dobbs, etc.), given that Ryan is also an established elected official in the area and also seemed like a good recruit, which seemed to be very ignored.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if that Columbia update was late arriving ballots?

If that's the case than I imagine across the district we may see a bit more, especially in Ulster, from the last few days, that may bump Ryan's margin even further from the +3.8 it is right now

[Sol]

One thing that’s worth noting about these post-Dobbs special elections:

NE-01, MN-01, NY-23, and to a lesser degree NY-19 are all remarkably simillar districts:

-NE-01, MN-01, and NY-23 all voted nearly identically in 2016 and 2020 Pres
-All 4 districts are very white and culturally “northern”
-All 4 districts are predominantly rural with Dem support centralized around a mid sized city with heavy college influence
-Not so much with NY-19, but in the other 3 the rural areas are very dense and ruby red
-All 4 districts have clear redistricting successors
-All 4 districts are outside some larger metro (MSP, Omaha, NYC, and Buffalo) which may have some remote influence on the districts politics.

And in all 4 special elections we saw a simillar theme with the results:

-Dems mildly outperformed Biden in the district overall
-Turnout was solid for a special election, but obviously nowhere near what we’d expect come Nov
-Turnout is strongest in already D communities in the district and weaker in R areas
-Ds really juiced up margins out of these left-shifting midsized cities (or in the case of NY-19 tourism areas)
-Republicans matched or improved on Trumps margins in rural areas
-Canidates saw notable home boosts if their politics was specifically tied to a certain county

Im not saying we should ignore these results, but think about how simillar these 4 districts are out of all the possible House districts in the Country. What would happen in an exclusively well to do swingy urban/suburban district (VA-02, MN-02)? What would happen in a Southern rural black seat? (GA-02, NC-01), What would happen in a competative urban/suburban minority seat (CA-45, NV-04)? What would happen in a WWC district (PA-08, MI-08)

While we may be able to predict, there could be other dynamics going on in these other types of places that these special elections can’t tell us and it’s important to acknowledge that.

This is making me think a little bit about 2018, which was in some ways a really amazing election for Democrats but was prevented from being as devastating for Republicans as it could have been by amazingly strong base turnout, which probably prevented Democrats from getting a 2010/2014 esque wipeout.

I wouldn't be surprised if 2022 is like this but in reverse--overall a Republican wave, but with insanely strong polarized Democratic turnout due to Trump/Dobbs that staunches the bleeding in certain areas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would a R+2 result be good for either side? You figure the narrowest of victories for Molinaro could suggest a short stint in Congress with high turnout Ithaca in the November version.

R+2 result in a Biden +2 district would be consistent with a dead even national environment (or slightly D-leaning, depending on how much stronger you think Molinaro is than Ryan, though I don't think he's that much stronger.) Would at least be encouraging for the Dems to see that a red wave is looking less likely, although it would also be a little disappointing given it would be a considerably worse performance than NE-01 or MN-01.

I saw a post on Twitter from a political analyst (don't recall which one, unfortunately) with a scale of possible outcomes in this race.  It was something like the following, with the caveat that this is from memory and some of them might be slightly off:

D+2 or more - fabulous for D
D+0-1 - very good for D
R+0-1 - good for D
R+2-3 - neutral
R+4-5 - good for R
R+6-7 - very good for R
R+8 or more - fabulous for R

Reposting this one as we await the final margin.

[wbrocks67]

Hm, unsure if Columbia's update is a mistake? NYT and Politico are showing it, but NY's election site and CNN are not.

[Gass3268]

Hm, unsure if Columbia's update is a mistake? NYT and Politico are showing it, but NY's election site and CNN are not.

The county still has, which is what I would currently go with until they make an update:

Pat Ryan   9,026
Marc Molinaro   6,704