Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[brucejoel99]

Do we really need another squad member?

There's a non-0 chance she's not admitted. IIRC, she said in an interview (which I wanna say was with the Hill?) that she wants to put some "backbone" into the Squad so, y'know, seems like they'd be off to a great start in their relationship.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1358875324390457345

That's the second congressional endorsement for Turner this week.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Do we really need another squad member?

We need about 430 more. Also anyone remember when a bunch of freshmen republicans tried to make their own “squad” a few months back?

[Suburbia]

Do we really need another squad member?

We need about 430 more. Also anyone remember when a bunch of freshmen republicans tried to make their own “squad” a few months back?

You need an ideological balance...you need Blue Dogs and Squad.

I want to see Nina Turner clash with Nicole Malliotakis over policing in the House.

[TML]

Do we really need another squad member?

We need about 430 more. Also anyone remember when a bunch of freshmen republicans tried to make their own “squad” a few months back?

You need an ideological balance...you need Blue Dogs and Squad.

I want to see Nina Turner clash with Nicole Malliotakis over policing in the House.

By "Blue Dogs" do you mean people who prioritize corporate/special interests over the interests of ordinary people? If that's the case, I want as few of those people as possible.

[MaxQue]

Do we really need another squad member?

We need about 430 more. Also anyone remember when a bunch of freshmen republicans tried to make their own “squad” a few months back?

You need an ideological balance...you need Blue Dogs and Squad.

I want to see Nina Turner clash with Nicole Malliotakis over policing in the House.

There is no need for Blue Dogs. Their ilks and failed "bipartisan" (in reality, policies that favors the elites) policies led to the rise of Trump.

[The Houstonian]

Do we really need another squad member?

There's a non-0 chance she's not admitted. IIRC, she said in an interview (which I wanna say was with the Hill?) that she wants to put some "backbone" into the Squad so, y'know, seems like they'd be off to a great start in their relationship.

They should be smart and let her in. The Squad is too small and weak for petty quarrels.

Do we really need another squad member?

We need about 430 more. Also anyone remember when a bunch of freshmen republicans tried to make their own “squad” a few months back?

You need an ideological balance...you need Blue Dogs and Squad.

I want to see Nina Turner clash with Nicole Malliotakis over policing in the House.

One can achieve ideological balance without Blue Dogs.

[ultraviolet]

Gross. She’s not even a democrat

[Suburbia]

Do we really need another squad member?

We need about 430 more. Also anyone remember when a bunch of freshmen republicans tried to make their own “squad” a few months back?

You need an ideological balance...you need Blue Dogs and Squad.

I want to see Nina Turner clash with Nicole Malliotakis over policing in the House.

There is no need for Blue Dogs. Their ilks and failed "bipartisan" (in reality, policies that favors the elites) policies led to the rise of Trump.

Blue Dogs do represent normal people....they are in rural areas.....and no, not every Blue Dog is corporate....

[The Houstonian]

Gross. She’s not even a democrat

She is, and it wouldn't be a problem if she weren't.

[GALeftist]

Gross. She’s not even a democrat

If the Democrats in her district want to nominate her surely it's a moot point

[The Houstonian]

Gross. She’s not even a democrat

If the Democrats in her district want to nominate her surely it's a moot point

Any Democrat backed by a majority of Democrats in their area is not a "fake Democrat." Democratic voters form the Democratic Party, and they get to decide who should represent the party in elections.

[VAR]

Do we really need another squad member?

Who cares? Some random congresswomen should not live rent free in every Republican's head.

[Dipper Josh]

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1362451312894484482

Turner keeps on securing local endorsements, this is starting to get ugly.

Idk if Brown supporters are just slow to update the wikipedia page but wow the endorsement difference is massive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ohio%27s_11th_congressional_district_special_election

[Not Me, Us]

Everything I've seen about this race seems like Turner is running away with it. Not sure why no opposition has coalesced, but this race is Turner's to lose.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I don't know why Brown's supporters haven't updated that Wikipedia article, but on Twitter I've seen her getting endorsements from dozens of state/local officials, unions, and other organizations.

Meanwhile Turner's section of the article lists a bunch of people who don't live in Ohio.  Yeah I'm not surprised she got endorsed by Krystal Ball, Shaun King, Marianne Williamson, Susan Sarandon and Ilhan Omar.  I don't think those endorsements will carry much weight in OH-11.  But they certainly make her endorsements list really long.

Clinton beat Sanders by 56-43 in 2016, but in the 11th district she stomped him 68-32.  Obviously there's no signal from 2020 because Biden trashed Sanders everywhere in the state.  But Nina's entire set of endorsements just frames her as "Bernie's candidate" which I don't think is an advantage in the 11th district.

So from a million miles away, it looks to me like one candidate is running a national campaign while the other is running a very local campaign.  Nina has endorsements from Bernie and his crew of Hollywood celebrities, Justice Dem congresswomen, YouTubers and podcast hosts.  Shontel doesn't have any podcast hosts on her side but she does have the 11th district steelworker's union or whatever.  Which will matter more?

There's also the fact that Shontel is likely to score the endorsement of Fudge herself.  That could end up being all that matters.

I could be wrong of course, Nina is going to have a massive fundraising advantage (she's already outraising Shontel 15-1) from running her national campaign.  But from the votes in this poll you'd think Shontel only has a 3-5% chance of winning and I'd definitely take those odds.  Cenk Uygur spent nearly $2,000,000 on his CA-25 Congressional run and ended up getting 4%.  You can't just buy seats these days.

There's also the split race factor -- Nina could win with 30% just like the Sanders campaign planned to during the primary.  Hopefully Marcia Fudge's endorsement will clear the field for Brown.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Also, Shontel Brown was endorsed today by Rep. Joyce Beatty (OH-03), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.  Ya know, someone who actually lives in Ohio.

I don't think she has as many followers on Twitter as The Gravel Institute, but it's still a nice endorsement to have.

[Stuart98]

A few more endorsements for Brown like that and we could be in for a real race. At present still likely Turner.

[Zaybay]

I don't know why Brown's supporters haven't updated that Wikipedia article, but on Twitter I've seen her getting endorsements from dozens of state/local officials, unions, and other organizations.

Meanwhile Turner's section of the article lists a bunch of people who don't live in Ohio.  Yeah I'm not surprised she got endorsed by Krystal Ball, Shaun King, Marianne Williamson, Susan Sarandon and Ilhan Omar.  I don't think those endorsements will carry much weight in OH-11.  But they certainly make her endorsements list really long.

Reading through the endorsement lists, it appears that Turner and Brown are getting different types of strata from the area.

Starting with Brown, she appears to be getting a ton of low-key endorsements. These are folks like pastors (which make up almost a third of the entire endorsement list), city councilors, mayors, etc. These are very small folks but also very numerous ones. Her biggest endorsements would have to be those of Beatty and Cordray, but I question just how meaningful these endorsements are. Afterall, Cordray is a bit of a washed-up name, and Beatty is a Columbus representative.

Turner's list, which in all honesty was much harder to find than Brown's, is made up of fewer folks but much more heavy hitters. People like Kenny Yuko, the current minority leader for the senate Dems, Sandra Williams, another big-name state senator from Cleveland, Mike Skindell, folks like that. Much bigger names, but fewer than Brown's exhaustive list.

And I actually think that kinda sums up the entire race to begin with. Brown is the chair of the county, someone who has close ties to a lot of folks in the area, but those ties only work with folks rather far down the ladder. Meanwhile, Turner's more star-driven campaign has more big names from the district in her corner, but you can argue that once you get past the top there's not much else (though there could be, Turner doesn't have an easy-to-find endorsement page so its hard to compare).

Either way, hard to tell who has the advantage. Turner's got money and big names, whereas Brown has connections and machine tactics. Definitely gonna be interesting to watch though.

[beesley]

A bump in the road for Brown, but probably inconsequential:

It is time for Democrats to stand up and speak out against the erosion of our party. As a lifelong Democrat who has been committed to our collective progress, I am outraged at the cronyism and backroom deals that benefit individuals and not the people they’ve sworn to serve.

Ms. Brown and more than 25 members of the county party’s central and executive committees have clearly broken the rules of the party, and Ms. Brown can in no way serve impartially over a mess she created. It is time for her to resign as chair of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party forthwith, and for each of the committee members who defied the party’s bylaws to do the same.

https://www.cleveland.com/opinion/2021/02/shontel-brown-must-resign-as-cuyahoga-county-democratic-party-chair.html

[Gracile]

Data for Progress needs to poll this race at some point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A bump in the road for Brown, but probably inconsequential:

It is time for Democrats to stand up and speak out against the erosion of our party. As a lifelong Democrat who has been committed to our collective progress, I am outraged at the cronyism and backroom deals that benefit individuals and not the people they’ve sworn to serve.

Ms. Brown and more than 25 members of the county party’s central and executive committees have clearly broken the rules of the party, and Ms. Brown can in no way serve impartially over a mess she created. It is time for her to resign as chair of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party forthwith, and for each of the committee members who defied the party’s bylaws to do the same.

https://www.cleveland.com/opinion/2021/02/shontel-brown-must-resign-as-cuyahoga-county-democratic-party-chair.html

No one cares, for better or worse

[Ferguson97]

She's awful. Hope she loses.

[PSOL]

She's awful. Hope she loses.

Less awful than her opponents positions.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1364213890972864513