Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

alito leftcath sleeper agent ending abortion in a way that puts DARK BRANDON in control on all other issues. jao

[GeorgiaModerate]

Insert dog-who-caught-the-car meme, but with an elephant.

[wbrocks67]

Dark Brandon really said not on my watch!

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562283492171472896

[Devout Centrist]

Let’s all give Data for Progress a big hand!

[wbrocks67]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

[wbrocks67]

Let’s all give Data for Progress a big hand!

Woof, yeah.. I mean I'll give them a break bc specials are hard, but that one was WAY off.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let’s all give Data for Progress a big hand!

Or 1/5 of it.

[Xing]

We definitely shouldn’t be making any definite calls about November yet, but this is a pretty good result for Democrats, and Republicans shouldn’t be so sure that the environment will shift significantly in their direction. It could, but that’s not a given.

[kwabbit]

Same old story here as in MN-01 and NE-01.

GOP did a bit better on the margins in their areas but the turnout in blue areas was just simply much better.

37.6k votes out of 182k in Ulster- 20.6% of the population voted
25.1k votes out of 296k in Dutchess- 8.4% of the population voted

If that trend holds up in November it sure as hell won't be red wave, Democrats will keep the Senate and might hold the House.

This is a district where the Democrats are wealthy and high-propensity, but that is honestly crazy differential turnout even accounting for that.

[Horus]

The GOP is stuck in a nasty place. They can't moderate on Dobbs much because as we saw tonight turnout is already sub par in the most conservative areas and that'll turn the base off, but the ruling is absolutely toxic to suburbanites and an enormous motivating factor for women. What do they do?

[Tintrlvr]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

[wbrocks67]

More of Ulster just came in. Ryan +24 now.

Total turnout now at ~39K, which is 42% of 2020 turnout.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1562283769226113025?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6vDvg...

[Ferguson97]

So how big of a deal is this win? What was the PVI?

[wbrocks67]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

I'm shook, this is now the 2nd time in a special this summer that the *college area* of all places really outperformed expectations. Did not expect the youngs to be the ones turning out, but a great sign for Ds this fall.

[Tintrlvr]

Same old story here as in MN-01 and NE-01.

GOP did a bit better on the margins in their areas but the turnout in blue areas was just simply much better.

37.6k votes out of 182k in Ulster- 20.6% of the population voted
25.1k votes out of 296k in Dutchess- 8.4% of the population voted

If that trend holds up in November it sure as hell won't be red wave, Democrats will keep the Senate and might hold the House.

This is a district where the Democrats are wealthy and high-propensity, but that is honestly crazy differential turnout even accounting for that.

I think you're comparing to all of Dutchess County, but a quite populous corner in the SW of the county is in the old NY-18 instead of the old NY-19.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[wbrocks67]

We definitely shouldn’t be making any definite calls about November yet, but this is a pretty good result for Democrats, and Republicans shouldn’t be so sure that the environment will shift significantly in their direction. It could, but that’s not a given.

I mean, this is what I've been saying for a bit now. We're almost at September. It's been two months since Roe and things have only gotten *worse* for Rs since then, and given this result now, I don't see how things are supposed to magically turn around for them barring some weird circumstance where gas goes back to $5 a gallon again or something.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

You love to see it:

[kwabbit]

Same old story here as in MN-01 and NE-01.

GOP did a bit better on the margins in their areas but the turnout in blue areas was just simply much better.

37.6k votes out of 182k in Ulster- 20.6% of the population voted
25.1k votes out of 296k in Dutchess- 8.4% of the population voted

If that trend holds up in November it sure as hell won't be red wave, Democrats will keep the Senate and might hold the House.

This is a district where the Democrats are wealthy and high-propensity, but that is honestly crazy differential turnout even accounting for that.

I think you're comparing to all of Dutchess County, but a quite populous corner in the SW of the county is in the old NY-18 instead of the old NY-19.

Yep you're right NVM lol

[Holmes]

Same old story here as in MN-01 and NE-01.

GOP did a bit better on the margins in their areas but the turnout in blue areas was just simply much better.

37.6k votes out of 182k in Ulster- 20.6% of the population voted
25.1k votes out of 296k in Dutchess- 8.4% of the population voted

If that trend holds up in November it sure as hell won't be red wave, Democrats will keep the Senate and might hold the House.

This is a district where the Democrats are wealthy and high-propensity, but that is honestly crazy differential turnout even accounting for that.

I don’t believe all of Dutchess is in this district?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/proqmatic/status/1562283588888002560

[wbrocks67]

Not gloating but still seriously confused at the "Molinaro is a strong candidate" takes.

What exactly was the evidence behind that? Just not being a 2020 election denier doesn't make you a strong candidate. Molinaro was also obviously against abortion rights even though he tried to not make it an issue. Sorry, Marc, voters made clear it was an issue.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Bad sign for democrats. There pollsters have been proven to be terrible