Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

You're making assumptions on the basis that I've said it reflects a R+8 environment.. or whatever.. I haven't.

High single digits would be more akin to R+1 or +2.

Firstly that is very much on the low side of November HPV predictions both on this site and elsewhere. Most people think it will be R+4 to R+6. Secondly it would only indicate an R+1 or R+2 environment if I'm assuming uniform shift and the same downballot dem strength as 2020, but why would I assume that? After all, in 2018, a D+8.5ish year, this district was R+0.4 – 9ish points right of the nation. Is there any reason why I should prioritize Democrats' abnormally strong 2020 showing and say that the district is just 6 points right of the nation on the congressional level always and forever? This is a serious question.

Well, presumably you would use the most recent data point for at least the next cycle ? It's rather simple logic..

Obviously no, you don't use that data forever which I never suggested.

[Minnesota Mike]

No Special election returns in yet from Mower county (Ettinger's home) but the primary vote is almost all in and the total D vote and total R primary vote has been a pretty good stand in. D's with a 9.5% advantage, Trump +6 county.

[philly09]

80% of Filmore is in and Finstad is only leading by 10. 54 to 44

[Spectator]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

You're making assumptions on the basis that I've said it reflects a R+8 environment.. or whatever.. I haven't.

High single digits would be more akin to R+1 or +2.

Firstly that is very much on the low side of November HPV predictions both on this site and elsewhere. Most people think it will be R+4 to R+6. Secondly it would only indicate an R+1 or R+2 environment if I'm assuming uniform shift and the same downballot dem strength as 2020, but why would I assume that? After all, in 2018, a D+8.5ish year, this district was R+0.4 – 9ish points right of the nation. Is there any reason why I should prioritize Democrats' abnormally strong 2020 showing and say that the district is just 6 points right of the nation on the congressional level always and forever? This is a serious question.

Well, presumably you would use the most recent data point ? It's rather simple logic.

Idk why you wouldn’t use the Trump numbers as a stand in

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 23,163 (57.8%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 15,983 (39.9%)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

You're making assumptions on the basis that I've said it reflects a R+8 environment.. or whatever.. I haven't.

High single digits would be more akin to R+1 or +2.

Firstly that is very much on the low side of November HPV predictions both on this site and elsewhere. Most people think it will be R+4 to R+6. Secondly it would only indicate an R+1 or R+2 environment if I'm assuming uniform shift and the same downballot dem strength as 2020, but why would I assume that? After all, in 2018, a D+8.5ish year, this district was R+0.4 – 9ish points right of the nation. Is there any reason why I should prioritize Democrats' abnormally strong 2020 showing and say that the district is just 6 points right of the nation on the congressional level always and forever? This is a serious question.

Well, presumably you would use the most recent data point ? It's rather simple logic.

Generally, using 1 election result from a House district is a bad idea, especially since every cycle the race has unique dynamics. For isntance there were plenty of House seats where Dems did better in 2020 than 2018 even though the year was worse, and some of them we kinda could infer before the election (GA-07, TX-24, ect).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 24,540 (58.3%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 16,530 (39.3%)

[Minnesota Mike]

All the primary vote in from Winona, D's +6, Biden +1 county.

I am assuming if you vote in a parties primary you will vote for that party in the general.

[UncleSam]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 24,540 (58.3%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 16,530 (39.3%)

Sorry what was expected here? I feel like Rs did badly in this district recently but only because of strong D incumbents, so not really sure what the ‘baseline’ is here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557219681643249669?s=20&t=l90Hc-86q2j...

Same thing we saw with the Kansas amendment.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/lennybronner/status/1557218050562314240?s=20&t=8046EEp_J...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm very eager to see the Olmsted numbers. Hopefully they quit dragging feet over there.

[philly09]

WaPo now has it back to only 39% of votes counted. Wonder what happened.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm very eager to see the Olmstead numbers. Hopefully they quit dragging feet over there.

Yeah. Rochester turnout could determine a lot.

[philly09]

WaPo now has it back to only 39% of votes counted. Wonder what happened.

Now down to 35%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm very eager to see the Olmstead numbers. Hopefully they quit dragging feet over there.

With 63.64% in the DFL has 56.7% of the two party primary vote.

And Rochester is less in than the county as a whole.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm very eager to see the Olmstead numbers. Hopefully they quit dragging feet over there.

Yeah. Rochester turnout could determine a lot.

Rochester, New York's vote counting has spread to Rochester, Minnesota!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Boom and boom

Biden won Winona by 0.4% and lost Mower by 5.8%.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1557224537837764608?s=20&t=_kOgOm0...

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1557224881326116864?s=20&t=_kOgOm0...

[Gass3268]

Mower is Ettinger's home county, got a big boost there.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s be honest we all are just waiting for Olmsted to get their s**t together.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Boom and boom

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1557224537837764608?s=20&t=_kOgOm0...

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1557224881326116864?s=20&t=_kOgOm0...

There seems to be a consisten theme of greater polarization in these special elections. In the NE-01 special election the GOP actually overperformed in a few rural counties but Dem overperformance Lancaster was what kept it somewhat close. It seems like we're seeing a similar theme here where Finstad is matching or only slightly underperforming Trump in rurals but really underperforming in counties that either have a mid-sized "city" or college town or smtg. Not enough to cost him the election though, but still notable, especially since the old MN-01 and the new NE-01 actually voted nearly identically for 2020 Pres.

[Lief 🗽]

It's gonna be so funny if the GOP really does blow it this year.

[Devils30]

It's gonna be so funny if the GOP really does blow it this year.

It's starting to feel like a ballgame where the team with a 6 run lead is now only up 1 in the 8th inning.

[GALeftist]

You know I'm just not going to argue with cons coping about how great this MN-01 result is for them anymore. All I'm gonna say is that I truly hope that the NRCC agrees with you that there are no warning signs here because if they do I'm going to have a very fun November.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 31,802 (53.8%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 26,026 (44.0%)

Olmsted hasn't even started yet.